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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    If that happened maybe we could get federal disaster funds and they could fix the bridge while they’re at it.
  2. TimB
    18z GFS keeps hope alive but does not allow the snow to linger through the day on Friday. Still a decent 3-6 event across the county.
  3. TimB
    The heavy freezing rain and 31 degrees thing that @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned last night. Can’t imagine it’d be a massive ice storm, which is probably good.
  4. TimB
    Would presume by morning we’ll have a first look at a NWS forecast that takes into account the main period of the event (Thursday night). ILN issued watches for their counties basically along and north of I-70 through western and central Ohio.
  5. TimB
    CPC still strongly suggests February temps will be above normal with the updated outlook issued today.
  6. TimB
    I especially liked their social media posts the other day encouraging people to read their forecast discussions.
  7. TimB
    I’d take a solid WWA* type event from a storm that wasn’t supposed to be ours any day of the week. *I understand that any WWA-type snow event with this system would likely be escalated to a WSW simply because of the ice potential.
  8. TimB
    I forgot the /s tag on my post.
  9. TimB
    A footnote at this point, but the GFS continues the good news with a solid advisory level event late in the weekend.
  10. TimB
    But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks.
  11. TimB
    Reeling us into something with massive disappointment potential. If this thing is likely going to fail us, I hope the models bear that out soon.
  12. TimB
    So it looks like about a third of an inch of zr, a ton of sleet, and snowfall that would be warning level in and of itself.
  13. TimB
    12z NAM took a big step SE. Still only rain here through 84 hours.
  14. TimB
    Knew I could count on your expert analysis to fill in my knowledge gaps regarding modeling bias. Much appreciated.
  15. TimB
    Of course the last panel of the 6z NAM has us at 46 and partly sunny at 18z Thursday. No joke.
  16. TimB
    Well there’s that, but then there was the event a couple weeks ago where it predicted the mixed precip debacle that would eventually cut our totals. Of course at this range, I believe it depicted significant icing, which didn’t happen in any form.
  17. TimB
    But if this thing is going to find a way to give us a decent snow (which I’m seriously doubting), you’d take a period of ice between the rain and the snow if that’s what had to happen to get us to snow, right?
  18. TimB
    Not sure what conclusions we can draw from looking at the NAM at the end of its range, but at 12z Thursday the line between rain and mix is way out in NW OH and the line between mix and snow runs from Detroit to South Bend. Way NW of other models. I guess the conclusion we can draw is that this thing is DOA, but we knew that already.
  19. TimB
    When was the last time we got 1.5 inches of ice, or even 0.5 for that matter?
  20. TimB
    If there’s not any snow left on the ground by Thursday and this storm isn’t going to be snow, give me rain. If there’s any snowpack left, give me the ice to put a crust on whatever snow remains and give it some staying power.
  21. TimB
    This says it all, but that’s not a surprise either. It’s difficult for us to get two consecutive months with below normal temperatures any time of year these days, but nearly impossible for that to happen in winter. The storm this week was never really ours and it’s still early, but we only have to think back to the middle of February 2021 to remember missing out on a storm and then later realizing it was our last chance for any appreciable snowfall.
  22. TimB
    It's hard to pin hopes on a good back-end snow event. You set yourself up for misery 9 times out of 10. Oh wait, that's most things in this hobby. LOL
  23. TimB
    It’s less than ideal but things seem to be trending in the right direction, so there’s that.
  24. TimB
    Liking the EC depiction of the late week event. 9” at 10:1 could be a foot at those temps.
  25. TimB
    Seems there’s a chance someone’s getting a crippling ice storm late in the week. CMC suggests it could be us, GFS keeps it N/W of us.
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