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TimB

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  1. TimB
    Slower to make sleet change to snow which will cut into snow totals but we get pounded for hours on end with heavy sleet.
  2. TimB
    The book has been closed on January. Coldest January (5.2 degrees below normal) since 2014. Snowiest January since 2011. At least a trace of snow on 23 days, measurable snow on 13 days. There were 20 days that didn’t get above freezing. Finished the month with 15 consecutive days of snow cover. About as good as it can get if you ask me.
  3. TimB
    0.25”+ is red. I don’t see any red on that map.
  4. TimB
    That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. They’ve also updated the zones to include a lot more mix during the day Thursday (with sleet more prevalent than zr).
  5. TimB
    It consistently had some of the highest totals on the MLK storm (can we call it the KPITSnow 1/19/19 redux?) if that says anything.
  6. TimB
    RGEM (which hasn’t been kind to us with this storm) still looks warm.
  7. TimB
    All of the globals except the GFS have us near 40 at daybreak, so we’ll have to see what the 12z runs of those do.
  8. TimB
    That’s the bottom line. The goalposts are narrowing. The most plausible options are a sleet bomb or an ice storm or some combination of the two, with little rain or snow.
  9. TimB
    Everything so far is starting to suggest that we might be below freezing most of the day Thursday, but temps aloft don’t support snow during that timeframe. This can’t be good, unless you really want the crippling ice storm. Anyone?
  10. TimB
    NAM also has us below freezing all day Thursday from daybreak. More sleet than zr in Pittsburgh but the 1”+ ice totals are in southern Allegheny county.
  11. TimB
    12z HRRR (at the end of its range, of course) has us down to 33 by daybreak Thursday.
  12. TimB
    1/12/18? Did that start as rain?
  13. TimB
    NAM total is 0.90”. Steady light freezing rain during the day (0.36” by 4pm). Gets heavier after dark but would imagine some of that runs off.
  14. TimB
    More concerning is the fact that “crippling ice storm” is still on the table. 6z NAM is ugly in this regard. Nearly an inch of steady freezing rain starting Thursday morning and going through midnight. Saving grace might be that much of the event is during the day and temps are in the 31-32 range.
  15. TimB
    So the text of the winter storm watch says 3-6” of snow, but NWS’s maps show 1.3” in Allegheny County with a high end amount of 2-3”?
  16. TimB
    Also the 0z NAM had no redeeming qualities.
  17. TimB
    If that happened maybe we could get federal disaster funds and they could fix the bridge while they’re at it.
  18. TimB
    18z GFS keeps hope alive but does not allow the snow to linger through the day on Friday. Still a decent 3-6 event across the county.
  19. TimB
    The heavy freezing rain and 31 degrees thing that @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned last night. Can’t imagine it’d be a massive ice storm, which is probably good.
  20. TimB
    Would presume by morning we’ll have a first look at a NWS forecast that takes into account the main period of the event (Thursday night). ILN issued watches for their counties basically along and north of I-70 through western and central Ohio.
  21. TimB
    CPC still strongly suggests February temps will be above normal with the updated outlook issued today.
  22. TimB
    I especially liked their social media posts the other day encouraging people to read their forecast discussions.
  23. TimB
    I’d take a solid WWA* type event from a storm that wasn’t supposed to be ours any day of the week. *I understand that any WWA-type snow event with this system would likely be escalated to a WSW simply because of the ice potential.
  24. TimB
    I forgot the /s tag on my post.
  25. TimB
    A footnote at this point, but the GFS continues the good news with a solid advisory level event late in the weekend.
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