Jump to content

TimB

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,223

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    I thought the MLK “bust” discussion would end if we got another good storm but sadly that doesn’t appear to be the case.
  2. TimB
    Plus I think it’s been discussed here before that they try to keep their message to the general public consistent. Conspiracy theorists like me think there’s some sort of bureaucratic quality control where forecasters get dinged if they have to constantly downgrade and upgrade warnings/advisories, but that may be a stretch.
  3. TimB
    Because 4.3” of that fell between midnight and 2am and I presume they felt it was too late to upgrade to a warning at that point.
  4. TimB
    Perfect, really. The snow came in early enough and hung on long enough that even those of us who slept got to enjoy seeing it fall on both ends of the storm.
  5. TimB
    Awesome finish to winter. Overperformed massively and left no doubt as to its status as a warning level snow. Best March storm in recent memory and I’d probably even rank it ahead of 2018 even if the total won’t be as high.
  6. TimB
    Already a coating here. Temp at PIT reached 32 at 10:10. Ahead of schedule.
  7. TimB
    HRRR still trending upward:
  8. TimB
    The only thing I can think of that would make the airport significantly higher than the city’s totals in this case is UHI. There is a lot of sun today and a transition from very warm to cold, with the bulk of the snow falling early in that transition period.
  9. TimB
    18z long range HRRR that shows the whole storm I would guess should look better than 12z. The last few hourly runs have trended up through hour 18. Edit: it’s keeping hope alive for a high end advisory event.
  10. TimB
    Sure enough, just like the 12z model suite, NWS has made a slight adjustment for the better:
  11. TimB
    Both NAMs were very underwhelming. No real winners except far eastern PA.
  12. TimB
    How? I thought there was a Ross snow hole in the MLK storm.
  13. TimB
    HRRR puts down a solid 5”, with some areas of the county exceeding 6” in places that see the lake enhanced bands in NW flow (which the NWS admits may be overdone).
  14. TimB
    Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long.
  15. TimB
    So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset?
  16. TimB
    Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95.
  17. TimB
    GFS continues to look pretty good. Most everything else continues to look pretty meh. Something has to give.
  18. TimB
    I think his comments make sense. If we get 2-4” we finish the winter with a total in the 30s, while if we get nothing we can still finish the winter with a total in the 20s which gives him more of an avenue to complain about how horrible this winter was.
  19. TimB
    So basically the maps that were issued at 1:50 pm are based on 0z model runs?
  20. TimB
    It’s not the watch that is perplexing. It’s more the fact that the forecast snow map actually increased from 5.3” to 6.4” in Pittsburgh despite the fact that the models seem to have gone the other way in the time between the issuances of those two maps.
  21. TimB
    Maybe they’re including yesterday’s total in the 5-7?
  22. TimB
    5-7”? This is looking more and more like just a frontal passage for us.
  23. TimB
    Hopefully it’s just the NAM being stupid but we’ve heard this song before and we know how it ends.
  24. TimB
    HRRR looks progressive as hell. About 4”. NAM came back a tick NW. Not enough to put us in the bullseye but looks better than 6z.
  25. TimB
    NWS official forecast is up to 5.3” but that will surely go down if the models, especially the NAM, are onto something. The 6z was a complete disaster (if you can actually reasonably apply words like “disaster” to not getting much snow).
×
×
  • Create New...