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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    0z NAM and HRRR Watches should have never been issued.
  2. TimB
    Rest assured we won’t get to -10, especially since we won’t have snow on the ground.
  3. TimB
    The record for Saturday is -11 if that helps?
  4. TimB
    GFS basically folded. It’s over. Maybe it’ll be like last year and we can get a snowless March and a consolation prize of an inch and a half on April 21st that melts in 3 hours.
  5. TimB
    I’d also be fine with missing out on this storm if there wasn’t still a sour taste from last year when we missed out on a storm in mid-February, not knowing at the time that it was our last chance for any real snowfall, and worrying that this could be that moment.
  6. TimB
    In other news, we overperformed on temps again today, as we always do when there’s snow to melt.
  7. TimB
    Even if it’s several runs, they’ll never take down the watch, they’ll just quietly replace it with an advisory and rejoice in the fact that an advisory was the right call if we get even a trace of zr, since that’s the criteria for an advisory.
  8. TimB
    I’d go as far as to say they should take down the watch, but they’ll leave it up until it turns into an advisory for a trace to a tenth of freezing rain. We met our quota of one good winter month, but now it’s February.
  9. TimB
    1.8” of QPF through 3z Friday, of which 1.72” is rain and the other 0.08” is “freezing rain” that falls during the day at 32 degrees, which is just a glorified way to say plain rain.
  10. TimB
    A boring rainstorm. It’s almost like they set these models up in such a way that they suck us in for a storm we had no business tracking, only to pull the rug out.
  11. TimB
    Looks a lot like the HRRR through 45.
  12. TimB
    12z HRRR was at 33 at daybreak Thursday. 18z HRRR is at 36 at the same time and stays above freezing through the end of its run. Hours and hours of 33 degree rain.
  13. TimB
    If @jwilsonsays it is, there’s a pretty solid chance it is.
  14. TimB
    Euro with a slight tick in the right direction. Maybe not enough, but when is it ever?
  15. TimB
    Ukie trended warmer.
  16. TimB
    GFS drops to -12 but is by far the coldest model on that part.
  17. TimB
    It looks like a slight NW shift on the Canadian but we can’t really afford anything in that direction.
  18. TimB
    With a GFS-like snowpack, it continues to insist that Saturday morning could be the coldest of the season.
  19. TimB
    Gradient of 4-12” of snow across Allegheny not counting sleet.
  20. TimB
    Slower to make sleet change to snow which will cut into snow totals but we get pounded for hours on end with heavy sleet.
  21. TimB
    The book has been closed on January. Coldest January (5.2 degrees below normal) since 2014. Snowiest January since 2011. At least a trace of snow on 23 days, measurable snow on 13 days. There were 20 days that didn’t get above freezing. Finished the month with 15 consecutive days of snow cover. About as good as it can get if you ask me.
  22. TimB
    0.25”+ is red. I don’t see any red on that map.
  23. TimB
    That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. They’ve also updated the zones to include a lot more mix during the day Thursday (with sleet more prevalent than zr).
  24. TimB
    It consistently had some of the highest totals on the MLK storm (can we call it the KPITSnow 1/19/19 redux?) if that says anything.
  25. TimB
    RGEM (which hasn’t been kind to us with this storm) still looks warm.
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