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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    So it looks like about a third of an inch of zr, a ton of sleet, and snowfall that would be warning level in and of itself.
  2. TimB
    12z NAM took a big step SE. Still only rain here through 84 hours.
  3. TimB
    Knew I could count on your expert analysis to fill in my knowledge gaps regarding modeling bias. Much appreciated.
  4. TimB
    Of course the last panel of the 6z NAM has us at 46 and partly sunny at 18z Thursday. No joke.
  5. TimB
    Well there’s that, but then there was the event a couple weeks ago where it predicted the mixed precip debacle that would eventually cut our totals. Of course at this range, I believe it depicted significant icing, which didn’t happen in any form.
  6. TimB
    But if this thing is going to find a way to give us a decent snow (which I’m seriously doubting), you’d take a period of ice between the rain and the snow if that’s what had to happen to get us to snow, right?
  7. TimB
    Not sure what conclusions we can draw from looking at the NAM at the end of its range, but at 12z Thursday the line between rain and mix is way out in NW OH and the line between mix and snow runs from Detroit to South Bend. Way NW of other models. I guess the conclusion we can draw is that this thing is DOA, but we knew that already.
  8. TimB
    When was the last time we got 1.5 inches of ice, or even 0.5 for that matter?
  9. TimB
    If there’s not any snow left on the ground by Thursday and this storm isn’t going to be snow, give me rain. If there’s any snowpack left, give me the ice to put a crust on whatever snow remains and give it some staying power.
  10. TimB
    This says it all, but that’s not a surprise either. It’s difficult for us to get two consecutive months with below normal temperatures any time of year these days, but nearly impossible for that to happen in winter. The storm this week was never really ours and it’s still early, but we only have to think back to the middle of February 2021 to remember missing out on a storm and then later realizing it was our last chance for any appreciable snowfall.
  11. TimB
    It's hard to pin hopes on a good back-end snow event. You set yourself up for misery 9 times out of 10. Oh wait, that's most things in this hobby. LOL
  12. TimB
    It’s less than ideal but things seem to be trending in the right direction, so there’s that.
  13. TimB
    Liking the EC depiction of the late week event. 9” at 10:1 could be a foot at those temps.
  14. TimB
    Seems there’s a chance someone’s getting a crippling ice storm late in the week. CMC suggests it could be us, GFS keeps it N/W of us.
  15. TimB
    All that worrying and here we are on day 12 of at least 4” snowpack at PIT and should easily add 3 more days to that, which would tie last year for 11th place for consecutive days with at least 4” of snow on the ground. Record is 54 in 1978, so basically a Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak kind of record. Simply put, this stretch has rivaled the good stretches from last winter in my opinion.
  16. TimB
    Further, today’s week 3-4 outlook (2/12-25) has us in the “equal chances” zone, closer to the above normal than to the below. 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have us firmly in the below normal, so would expect when the updated Feb map comes out on Monday, it won’t look like the one last week.
  17. TimB
    That’s exactly it. We’ll see how the month pans out, but as badly as the CPC was wrong last February with almost the exact same map, it’s hard to put much stock into that product.
  18. TimB
    Yeah, a little oddly specific scenario.
  19. TimB
    Right now their official forecast for Boston is 23”, with a “low end amount” of 12.2”.
  20. TimB
    Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week?
  21. TimB
    I think I mentioned this yesterday. There are certainly periods of positive height anomalies on both the operational runs and ensembles, but much of it looks weak and hopefully not likely to be a full-on torch in between cold periods, and there’s a lot of cold air to break through. But it’s a more transient pattern, which of course keeps things open for storms.
  22. TimB
    Yes, nice to see another pack refresher. We need 1.9” today at PIT to get to 20 for the month, so that may be a tough ask but not impossible. On another note, we’re now at the halfway point of snow climo. Normal through yesterday is 22.0”, normal for the season is 44.1”.
  23. TimB
    I’m getting 2” as well, but I don’t have a start time. Not sure how that works.
  24. TimB
    GFS had that storm on the 0z run and has carried it on the following runs. I would never put any stock in something that was only at hour 240 of the CMC.
  25. TimB
    What in God’s name is that start times map?
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