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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    GFS had that storm on the 0z run and has carried it on the following runs. I would never put any stock in something that was only at hour 240 of the CMC.
  2. TimB
    What in God’s name is that start times map?
  3. TimB
    Noted. For you to be criticizing the CMC it has to be pretty bad.
  4. TimB
    Wave after wave of punishing cold. Look on the bright side, the CMC does have a storm.
  5. TimB
    Position of the ridge will be key to how that part of the pattern plays out. Certainly doesn’t look like Feb will be as cold as Jan but we knew that already.
  6. TimB
    The thing I’ve been noticing lately is next week doesn’t look like a decisive pattern shift at all, there might be good opportunities in Feb. if the pattern reloads.
  7. TimB
    Now to see if it continues to carry the storm for next weekend.
  8. TimB
    Temp bounced around a lot last night if you look at the 5-min obs. Same with the night before. I know if you get a puff of wind or a few passing clouds on these deep radiational cooling nights it can really have an effect, but it doesn’t look like there was much of that in the obs last night as compared to the night before.
  9. TimB
    Looks like it was an interesting interhour -6 at about 6:20 this morning, between a 5:51 obs of 0 and a 6:51 obs of 1.
  10. TimB
    Way, way too early, but the last 2 GFS runs are showing something big next weekend. It’s almost like the pattern wants to reload after the warm-up next week.
  11. TimB
    Nearest PWS to me got to -8, so we’ll go with that imby. I concur that this has been not just a good winter period, but a great winter period that has made it easy to forget December. By the time the snowpack goes away, we should be on the plus side of two weeks with continuous snow cover.
  12. TimB
    PIT recorded a 5-min obs of 0 in the past hour before jumping back up to 5, so today will officially have a low of at least 0.
  13. TimB
    Still 16 degrees at this hour. Is today the day we finally break that ridiculous streak?
  14. TimB
    Good point.
  15. TimB
    In a word, no.
  16. TimB
    God, the way they melt down when these storms fail them (and I do believe this one will) puts the PA threads to shame.
  17. TimB
    Cautious optimism, but encouraging signs from the models this morning (both ops and ens) about the upcoming pattern progression and duration of next week’s torch.
  18. TimB
    Just hard to see a scenario where we’re not well inside the trough this weekend and perhaps find our way back into subzero territory at some point.
  19. TimB
    Also could be pushing 20 days that didn’t get above freezing by the time the month is over. Normal for January is like 12, I think.
  20. TimB
    Models seem to suggest we could score another couple inches Friday, which would seem to be our last opportunity for snow before the pattern flips next week, which I’m still hopeful is a transient return to warmth.
  21. TimB
    PIT observed 2.2”, bringing us within 0.8” of normal through today’s date.
  22. TimB
    I know, lol. I was just kidding.
  23. TimB
    Yeah, and since then we’ve had two notable snowstorm busts: 1/19/19 and last weekend. Those can be mentioned in the same breath, right?
  24. TimB
    Why is last week’s storm that came up just slightly short of what we wanted still the topic of conversation anyway?
  25. TimB
    And a little perspective here: today clinched an above normal January for snowfall. We’re at 16.9” for the winter, normal through this date is 20.2”. To be at 85% of normal season to date snowfall is pretty solid given how horrific December was. It hasn’t been an epic January, but it’s been a good to great January that checked more of the boxes than it didn’t.
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