TimB

12z GFS and especially CMC both make @Itstrainingtime’s Steeler Sunday next weekend look pretty raw. CMC has the 18z temp at 31.

Pillow is the warmest in the afternoon and coldest in the morning, no wx station needed.

Just kidding anyway. Official NWS normals have the normal high/low/mean at 56/38/46. Not sure how that happens, as even (55.5+37.5)/2 = 46.5, which rounds up. So 48/26=37 gives us a -9 according to the official NWS report. So we’re at 134 days and counting without a negative double digit departure, and in the same timespan we’ve had 13 positive double digit departures (despite the normals rising decisively this year), and we likely won’t have one over the next 10 days or so at least. Edit: I looked at the official normals for today, it’s 55.6 and 37.5. (55.6+37.5)/2 = 46.55, which I would still round to 47 and not 46.

Next frame.

By the end of the run, the eastern edge of another big ridge is on my doorstep.

The initial push from warm to more seasonable comes earlier, but I don’t see any indications of a BN look in that timeframe.

Frontal passage looks faster/weaker/drier, no back-end snow and an average to slightly above Saturday.

DPs soar into the 60ish range too.

Yeah, only about a 10 degree increase at MDT as compared to the prior run but honestly, the map I posted earlier probably got extreme southwest PA close to 70 anyway.

Thursday warmth also shifted about 200 miles further north on this EC run.

Several days into November and 20% of the state is still at peak color. That can’t be good.

This suppressed warm front idea has traction.

EC keeps PA on the good side of a warm front Thursday:

Sounds about right for Tomlin/Ben against a bad team.

What’s the general consensus here? Early week warmup ->weak cold frontal passage ->late week warmup -> decisive cold frontal passage?

Might aid us in recording our first double digit negative departure since 6/23 (but only if we get no higher than 48 this afternoon).

I think we only have Kuch on the EC when they’re having problems. I don’t recall having it last winter.

Nothing massive. Several inches at 10:1 so I’m sure less Kuch since temps are marginal. Less than an inch at PIT and probably nothing that sticks.

Other caveat I’ll add here is the Euro brings mountain snow on the back edge of that front. As of now it’s looking like Saturday.

I mean, you’d have to be insane to be trying to grow anything sensitive into November, but I do know what you mean. That said, the 29 appears to be exactly on schedule for first 20s at PIT (Nov. 3 is the average date).

God, I hope not. But Michael Vick did.

Quoting this in the fall thread: No, the NWS posted yesterday that the growing season is over and they will no longer be issuing them this year.

I think I’d quit following weather for good if anything like this came to fruition in mid-November:

I feel fairly safe in believing next week will be warmer than this week. The question is, by how much?

This GFS run didn’t show it as much, but the previous couple runs hinted at back to the same old pattern we had in October.