TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Even the remaining “heat” over the next week could probably be more accurately described as “warmth”, save for maybe a day here or there.
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The end is in sight. CMC does something different and rebuilds the ridge in that timeframe after a less decisive frontal passage and retrograding trough.
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The last couple days of that run do look spectacular. Lock it in.
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18z GFS gets a bit toasty late in the run again. In better news, October will be within view on the GFS by morning.
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Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.
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Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.
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GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief. Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240. Ugh.
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Ah yes, now we’re into that phase where there are 9 days of heat. And when we wake up tomorrow, there will still be 9 days of heat. And when we wake up Thursday, there will still be 9 days of heat.
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Oddly, the position of Nicholas on that map isn’t terrible.
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It’s hard when the quoted map here was the GFS’s map for today, just 9 days out. I think there was also one where my afternoon temp was 47 sometime this upcoming weekend, but we’ll give that one a pass because it was a lot longer range.
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The cool down hasn’t reached PA by the end of the EC or CMC runs, which I’d like to see before I say September can be salvaged.
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That stuff held us to 79 yesterday out here, which was much appreciated.
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18z GFS says we take our fall back well before the month is up.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Could do without this humidity, but nice to see both PIT and AGC rolling into the 4:00 hour without an 80 yet. -
Even the PIT departure of -3.4 through this past Saturday should be easily made up and then some this week. Above normal month seems like a sure bet at MDT and more likely than not at PIT.
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Classic UHI just after sunset. It gets clearer and clearer that MDT is just a bad place to take observations.
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Couple 5-min obs of 68 at MDT, so I think that’ll be the official low. Same as we got at PIT, actually, but our high yesterday was only 82.
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540 line rides through PA toward the end of the 18z GFS.
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Fixed my post. Wow.
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...have a 4th quarter lead, which is more than I ever thought I’d be able to say today.
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Fantasy land GFS looks wonderful. Steelers, on the other hand...
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Who’s ready for 2nd summer? Looks like it begins tomorrow and the end is TBD. Overnight GFS runs are particularly ugly, not a single temp below 62 at PIT after this morning on the 0z or the 6z, and 2 straight weeks of dewpoints 60 or higher. -
There she is!
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If you extrapolated the CMC, it would also occur on D11/12.
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But, it looks like the light at the end of the tunnel is within the model run.
