SnowenOutThere

I'm in my teens so i'm not great with forecasts or any of that and my posts lean somewhat heavily on banter or misinformed takes but I still try to make a good post once in awhile and a big draw to being here is having people who know what they are doing so you get a better picture but also learn from them. Banter is still fun though.

Watch DMAX come and go and nothing happen after waiting all this time.

It’s orthograpically enhanced the bottom “claw” of the island has mountains.

Looking at that and the storm might be able to ninja it’s way into the bay avoiding the worst of the mountains.

Latest satellite shows a pretty good outflow and new Blowup of storms at the core, looking pretty good for a storm crossing the islands.

Radar looks pretty good but there is a gap in the warning line hope it fills in.

Like I said when has the HWRF been right? It should almost always be used as the worst case scenario.

Though the HWRF is unlikely it does make me nervous, it has a strong cat 1 or low end cat 2 hit a populated area. This would be terrible but what makes me nervous is that it hits early Saturday and 24 hours before it is not even a tropical storm, this means that Florida would get at best 1 day warning about a storm that would be rapidly intensifying. When they wake up on Friday they see a tropical depression (if they even know that because it is only a depression) by lunch and when they go to sleep it still would not be a hurricane only a tropical storm so people would go to bed to a tropical storm then when they wake up there is a hurricane outside. Seems like a bad combination, but when has the HWRF been right?

Well it’s over

Looking at the IR satellite it looks like the main convection is heading south? What is this thing doing, is it going to try to go beneath the Dominican Republic and Haiti because if so it will either die or get the 1/100 shot go underneath and realize that Cuba exists.

Really good convection question is does it hold.

Looking at the IR and I honestly think this storm is going to get shredded. Does not really matter where the circulation is when the convection will die unless I truly don’t know what is going on. It just feels like this thing is going to get shredded to me unless we get some good convection to the north.

Looks like we are about to get hit by a truck.

In western fairfax just got missed by a severe storm to the south and north with another storm developing off to the East. ugh

We have said this everyday for the past three days... concerning to say the least.

Though something I find terrible but also funny they made us start earlier years ago and got rid of half day Mondays (might of just been for grades 1-6) but still. The funny part is, that they gave us 20 extra snow days! When will we ever use those, I mean pretty lame excuse for making the school year longer. I give it a D-

Oh Fairfax County schools can just go jump, why do we start school before labor day and get out June 13th or something? Then THEN they cancelled online schooling for everyone. WHY some people could of used that if they don't feel comfortable going back into school or if they work better at home. AT the very least offer hybrid and that's ignoring the spike in cases right now! WHY CANT THE BE LIKE LOUDON COUNTY SCHOOLS! Sorry talk of schools touched a nerve.

Posted this in the tropical weather thread but this more or less is the main thread after the uh interesting adventures of Ampedvort and friends. Might be overanalyzing but seeing some new towers in the forward and almost underside of the storm. Maybe this might is hinting at the storm getting its act together?

Might be overanalyzing but seeing some new towers in the forward and almost underside of the storm. Maybe this might be hinting at the storm getting its act together?

Remember to take care of yourself, you are a great help to the tropical threads.

Wait I know this is most likely from someone who gets more than a little more excited than normal but can't storms sometimes have convective bursts when passing over mountains even though they destroy the storms circulation? So for weaker storms could this happen or is there no way this happens?

The ignore button does exist. Also Vortamp/AmpedVort chill a little please you don't have to but I think people might like you more on this thread if you did.

fraid it might be too early to spot an eye with the nighttime convective burst I'll try but doubt it, maybe AmpedVort can find one?

Hurricane Elsa 2.0

Thought this was interesting if not sad. I use this website https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf to find snow totals for past winters when people refence ones I am unfamiliar with. Though I looked at the data and back when the data begins in the late 19th century winters with below 10 inches of snow were rare one in six maybe. Now they are around half of our winters and having 5 winters with 10 inches of snow or more would be exceptional. Shows what we all know to be truth (hopefully) climate change is affecting our winters and each year it gets harder for snow to win out.