SnowenOutThere

I actually forecasted something right for once, I think that's one out of 20 correct predictions for this storm which is still somehow better than my average forecasts ratio for snow storms last winter.

If you don’t mind it would be nice if you could video or maybe take pictures of the storm while the storm really gets going and then post them here, it’s always interesting to see.

Is that an eye I spy?

This is going to be an actual post instead of my other posts that probably belong in banter. I was looking at the radar this morning and thought the latest convection was interesting if not a bit worrying. That also combined with the radar now being in usable meant we can get a better view of the convection which makes it easier to see the finer details. After looking at the radar I think it is possible that this storm could intensify rapidly at some point today. If we look at the photo on the right taken around 6am we can see that there is little convection in the blue circled area and even less in the light black area which is where the blue area rotates to. This is the area to my knowledge closest to the actual center due to how the bands curve around it. Not that impressive looking for an inner band. This is before the convection burst that occurs from 6 30 to 7am which you can see on the satellite. The image below shows the convection that was in the blue circled on the left photo into its new position which is also in a blue circle. The convection is now much more intense and starting to rap around the center due to the convection band being in a rounded shape. This shows to me that the storm might be trying to make an eyewall or just an convection core near the center. This combined with that convection core undergoing strengthening leads me to believe that there is a chance this storm rapidly intensifies later today or currently with that band. That combined with the band next to it being more filled in to the south makes me think this storm might be undergoing an organization process. By the time I finish writing this it is probably irrelevant but thanks for reading.

I second the 6z HWRF

Found the totally legit eye.

I say they just fly right in, sounds like a fun way to start WW3 a lot better than other ways.

Happy B-Day @WxWatcher007 ! Thank you for all of the informative posts in both the Mid-Atlantic thread and the tropical one.

No matter what happens I'll find an eye during the night time convection burst.

Naw, I would be complaining about the DC split.

I should of seen that retort from a mile away.

Whos ready for the nightly convection burst that makes everyone think it is finally getting its act together and then by morning it looks even worse than the morning before.

Took this last night right after mid night and for the last couple frames it really looked like it was trying to develop an eye or something and with that IR presentation I thought it might become a rather intense system, turns out I took that image at the height of its nighttime convection. Still confusing on just how rapidly it went from looking like a strong hurricane might happen to a weak end tropical storm, same thing happened yesterday its like it Yo-yos each day and night. I really thought we might end up with a major hurricane by morning from that depiction. Still a bit confused on why this keeps falling apart.

I just accidentally woke up and wanted to see the storm and wow what a transformation from earlier. From my untrained sleep deprived eyes it almost looks like it’s try to develop an eye on the last frames don’t know if I’m just paranoid or not. Still looks really good tonight.

I guess you could say Elsa let herself go

Since storms typically are more west than the models if they are also more intense wouldn’t this mean that there is technically the possibility of this threading the needle and missing Cuba or almost missing it sending a strong storm at the US? Or am I missing something? At the very least it seems more likely for it to not have as much land interaction due to it probably being more west due to the intensification we are seeing which leads to a stronger storm hitting the US.

Rapid intensification continues

Saw this on Twitter and don’t know how to put tweets in on phone so here is the photo looks a bit scary.

Did you get any pictures?

Very similar experience, my dad thought it was a good time to go on a run five minutes before it happened because according to him they always blow over us, he got drenched. Also even if there is no tornado there is some nasty straight line velocities. Looked like an apocalypse pretty crazy.

Near Reston and got .19 inches of rain I feel ripped off, the main line was weakest over me and the cell that merged with it in fairfax formed too Far East. Everywhere near me got more rain and we were surrounded by storms. Ughh and we need the rain since we are going into July.

Surrounded by storms. Ironic that the weakest part of the line will hit me and the new storm developed a bit to far east. I don't know how to feel about this.

Just south of the training setup near Ashburn :( hope I get something. Heard thunder but no rain except for 5 seconds of rain right now where there are no storm clouds nearby.

Shear is the main one due to the trade winds, then you have all of the mountain islands making the area bordered by land that shreds storms so storms have to thread the needle between land. That is the extent of my knowledge on why its a graveyard, if you are smarter than me please correct me.

Thanks to my experience in snow forecasting I know that this is the only model that will be correct and I should cling to it no matter what the other ones say, ITS NEVER GONE WRONG BEFORE*. *Citation Needed