SnowenOutThere

I didn't start the thread so we all know this storm is over before it even begun. Just kidding! I tried analyzing the difference between the GFS and Euro and while I am able to make some conclusions on what we want to see change there's a rather large feature that I am just not smart enough to know what it does. Starting off with the Euro we can see four distinct features; the first is the departing trough off to the east which acts as confluence forcing the storm south, the second is the shortwave itself, the third is the mid latitude ridge over the central plains, and the final piece is the energy north of our shortwave. So, what I do understand are how the players 1 (departing storm east of Canada) and 3 (mid-lat ridge) are impacting our shortwave and subsequent storm. In order to get the suppressed storm that somehow manages to precipitate cold stuff over us (I'm not even getting into ptype here) we want the player 1 to exit slower and further south as this helps suppress the flow in front of our shortwave. As many previous posters have said the 500 height lines act as train tracks for our storms to follow (which is evident if you would play this map through time). Additionally, a further southwest player 1 helps trap in our high (which is already displaced too far north for our liking) better. Adding onto getting our 500 height lines further south we need the mid latitude ridge over the central US to be further west based and further south as well. A comparison of the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) 500 height anomalies shows the difference players 1 and 3 makes quite nicely. Notice the GFS has a flatter and more western ridge and a more intense storm off Canada. This is where my real knowledge of the subject ends as now I get to discuss players 2 (our shortwave) and 4 (northern energy) interacting. Once again we will use the vorticity charts to highlight these differences between the models as GFS has these two players interact which seems to favor a more north/south tilted storm and precip axis which interacts positively for us. Additionally, the GFS has a far wetter storm and I wonder if it could be the extra vorticity helping out? Once again GFS on bottom and Euro on top To be honest though I'll be in NYC due to an interesting set of circumstances (home alone 2 style) so I think I'll win out either way!

Geez I apparently need to take more breaks from this place! I come back and everyone's saying how we are looking good. I generally agree, though I'm not great at reading the long range pattern it seems good, or at the very least not a shit the blinds pattern at all. Even way out in la la land that we should have decent enough cold air thanks to a workable upper air pattern. Of course, its all very northern stream dominated and we generally appear maybe a bit too far south but considering the crazy trends we've seen so far this year who knows!

Its like trying to analyze something from the JMA

Tbh I think it might be my proudest joke I've made on the forum. Though I'm not sure I ever really bought into the full doom and gloom we had in here for a little bit. I know its bad practice to use the OP runs but aside from a couple days they never really showed a horrific setup. It always seemed like last year(s) when the ensembles showed a great pattern and the OPs were meh to downright bad the ens ended up adjusting to that reality. I do wonder if there is some science behind the possibility of OP runs aiding in pattern change analysis or if its just confirmation bias.

reminds me of how before I left Cville you could see snow on the tops of the mountains all around town but there was nothing on the ground at all in the university itself.

We can't even do shit the blinds patterns properly anymore

I think at the very least this winter will be okay. It's not often that we've tracked 4 legit threats for VA by mid month, alongside that we've had some favorable teleconnections and a general willingness to have cold air break south since fall. No matter what we've already avoided a completely nonexistent winter!

I’m out only 5-10 miles east of you and didn’t even hit .5. I really can’t complain as everything’s coated nicely with the temp dropping.

That’s a depressing picture

Temp is 33 degrees for me and no accumulation on any surface, I think we may be quite cooked. I won’t be setting a second alarm for tonight.

If you look at recent radar frames you can begin to see the backfilling of precip as these forces become more active

The frontal dynamics and the fact we are in the RER quadrant of a jet streak which induces WAA and subsequent divergence aloft which results in low level convergence and lift. This lift causes air parcels to rise to the LCL (lifted condensation level) which forms the cloud base, subsequently, the parcel rises through the positive dynamics and the moist lapse rate. After that we get snowfall from the aggregation of flakes in the atmosphere. Any more questions?

Returned home and imo I think where we got that initial band will probably do very well with this event. As for the rest of us those couple crazy HRRR runs were so insane because they had that band reach southeastward so we’ll need to watch if that manages to happen

On the way back home (and to snow!)