SnowenOutThere
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START THE BUS BACK UP BABY. MARCH SNOW ON SNOW IS INBOUND!!!
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Do you think part of the issue with why we couldn't get any storms to really build was that second area of CIN? Seems like we managed to get storms to begin development but struggle to get past the shower stage so maybe that's the reason why.
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Yeah, when you see the sounding from Monday without any of the wind profiles it becomes painfully clear that we were cooked with our thermal profile if we wanted severe. Had two different CIN areas and horrific lapse rates with next to no CAPE. Also hope this pen-paper diagram brought back some memories for our mets.
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In my Atmo/Weather lab we're analyizing the soundings from this monday and making a scew T chart.
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I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action. -
Love the SPC, but wondering how many of those reports occurred with the ending squall line which went through after they dropped percentages. I think they were completely justified in their 4/5 risk (and twitter/public mets retroactively throwing them under the bus suck) but its also fair to say that while justified the forecast failed. A failed forecast is not necessarily a bad one though. You have to warn for the high end in case it happens, hopefully people don't think next time its a boy cry wolf situation.
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Anyone else tracking the potential snow showers this afternoon? HRRR seems insistent some make it over the mountains
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Don't know if this is the appropriate place but some snow squalls making it over the mountains looks possible tomorrow. Anyways, if someone gets caught in one it might put down a quick coating based on the soundings
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Results from my first ever (severe) storm chase! Good learning experience even if I didn't get to see anything warned (tornado or thunderstorm). Was some low level rotation but fell apart quickly and clearly had no momentum to do anything. Though, the flowers were pretty, and VA pediment is beautiful as always.
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All I remember about tornado warnings in schools is that I would try to tell the teachers they were wrong.
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We had more than enough spin for a tornado to occur. I mean every single shower showed a couplet of some intensity. Just couldn’t ever get anything to take advantage of it. Wasn’t cape either for a bit. The initial stuff had surface cape of 500+, just never built up into the upper atmosphere.
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Dropped the warning for the line I was setup for. Don’t even know if I’ll get a shelf
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Out in front of the line that passed through Lynchburg. So far nothing standing out to reposition.
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Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts
