SnowenOutThere

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November." Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes this winter. 2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.

I don't blame you for that change, and frankly my argument doesn't rely on the notion that people are good. I wish they were, but there are more than enough counterexamples to make it an unrealistic claim. My argument is a one which places the onus of our behavior onto the competitive and exploitative mode of production society operates under. No wonder people are nasty when we are told that other people succeeding is to our disadvantage, or that more people means less to go around. It creates the interactions motivated by hate you talk of. So yes, I think its a valid claim to say that there are people who want to hurt others and are what we can categorize as morally wrong people. However, I think it's fine to add a consonant claim which emphasizes that behavior is a product of the greater system society has setup. We are all adaptive to the environment were in, and it happens our environment is one which favors hate over care. My real claim, and goal, is arguing that our system doesn't need to be that way and there are alternatives. I know that such a change is one which I won't even see the start of, but I also believe its folly to think capitalism will somehow exist for all time forever into the future. I think our situation is analogous to asking a peasant in 13th century Europe if feudalism will last forever. To them it may seem so, but that is because they are blinded by their historical moment. As for how this translates to day-to-day interactions I'm not really sure. Extend empathy towards others, but if they're "bad" people then they also deserve to be called out on their behavior. Honestly, what would your advice be to someone who was in your place 30 years ago?

Guess it makes sense that if you keep increasing poleward heat fluxes you'll start to mess with the polar vortex more. No clue how that plays onto the rest of winter but I'll ask my climatology professor about it tomorrow.

Are people unable to take their "heads out of their own arse" to blame when our society tells us to enjoy the smell of our shit? I have the upmost respect for you as both a winter weather posters and someone who doesn't back down when some posters poke the climate change conversation. But, anyone on "our" side who sees the conservative base as the enemies are looking through distorted glass as well. To place blame at the feet of those who bought into what our society tells them is taking the easy way out at best and malpractice at worst. We are all trying to make our one go around the sun worth it, nobody believes themselves to be using their one life to hurt others - but when our system is based on ruthless competition and a fight over every resource we all will wind up hurting someone for something we don't need. To reemphasize my point, to do so is not stupidity or a deliberative attempt to hurt one another but to go along with the natural forces that act upon us both sociologically and psychologically. A quote sums up my thoughts perfectly here: "I don't know why you did what you did. But it's hard to be mad when you're just as stuck as I am" My response to the claim of "there are too many stupid people who will always be easy to manipulate by powerful people with nefarious motives" is that we've (the left) won before. All the positive parts of the world we inhabit is because someone, somewhere in the past, cared and burnt their present to create the future we now hold. To reject the notion that change can come is to embrace the same song that those on the right sing, albeit with a different and arguably sadder melody. I don't know what the answer is. Frankly, if I get to live to your age I might agree with you, but I have to believe you are wrong. The most radical thing any person can do is to have empathy for one another, no matter how much "they" fight you. I know what I say is idealistic, that it is an opinion that will get me hurt, one that will leave me disappointed time and time again, and one that may never come true in my lifetime. However, the people believed, perhaps delusionally, that we deserve better than what we are told is possible have won before, and they will win again. Don't surrender to the ease of giving up hope in your fellow humans; that is exactly what those in power want the most.

Not sure how applicable this sample is considering it uses 26 different el nino winters. Besides, I'm always skeptical of anything posted to social media which puts the highest above average snowfall along the most populous stretches of the northeast.

Thank you, I try to share what I learn in my courses with the forum to pass it forward. Also, it's nice that you're learning all that stuff. If you ever have questions about the global climate response piece I can help you with that (carbon cycle wise I've lost most of that knowledge post AP environmental science in Junior year). While learning the concepts might not (but hopefully does) feel interesting they lay the groundwork for understanding the atmosphere as a dynamic system. I don't know what you plan to major in (you have a lot of years to figure that out, if you want to go to college that is) but if it's related to atmospheric science/environmental science you will thank yourself for paying attention now. I understand your feeling on this but I truly believe that most everyone in this subforum is capable of understanding the math behind our climate; after all, it's a mix of algebra and the most basics of calculus alongside understanding some concepts (those being the solar constant, albedo effect, and greenhouse gas effect). However, some very influential people have a strong vested interest in creating a reality where that equation is wrong. I do not blame the people for believing in that reality - no one wants to be wrong after all. That said, if there is one thing that my social psychology class has taught me it is that attitude change requires the ability to admit you're wrong which is a very difficult thing for people to do. The people who don't believe in climate change aren't stupid, they aren't evil, and they aren't backwards. They are humans. Yes, humans who are wrong on the issue, and yes humans who actions cause real harm, but you aren't ever going to change their minds by pretending they are somehow below you. If you truly care about changing other peoples minds then you need to put aside malice and extend empathy towards them with how you explain the concept. Ultimately, we are all extremely susceptible creatures to outside influences and the only way we can really understand one another is through seeing people as people and not a walking conglomeration of ideas. If you are one of the posters who disagree with me on climate change I want to say two things directly to you. 1. Thank you for reading this far. 2. Think about who benefits from a world where climate change doesn't exist. Think about how much political power and influence those groups have to loose if climate action occurs. Think about if those groups truly have your best intentions at heart of if they are trying to use you as a voting block to hold onto their power. Just think about it for a minute or two the next time year hear/read an anti-climate change ad or paper - and think about where the money for that ad came from. If you can't tell this moral goes beyond climate change for me.

I'm not sure a favorable Atlantic side would even save us with flow off the Pacific like that. Even if we got a strong -NAO pattern what would our cold air source be? I suppose you could try to get homegrown air from Canada but with an active STJ I wonder if you could ever reduce heat fluxes from the south enough to allow a real buildup of cold air.

West Virginia color was pretty good when I was out there in early October. Driving through Monetary area last weekend after my snow hike and the colors were in peak and looked pretty. Then again, areas further west and south of NOVA were spared from the drought, and so far colors around Charlottesville haven’t been great.

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality.

Might be the shortest AFD I've read put out by LWX this morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories issued through Thursday afternoon for an extended period of minor tidal flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. Surface high pressure continues to build north of the forecast area through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, and limited cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s. High pressure will build southward out of southeastern Canada and eastern Great Lakes region Saturday through Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected each day. There could be some areas of frost Saturday morning. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday with highs 5 to 7 degrees below average and highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday, temperatures will be more seasonable. Monday will encounter highs approaching or reaching the 70 degree mark. By Tuesday, temperatures may be knocked down to seasonable once again. Highs in the middle 60s.

Funny how “worst of winter” and “big snowstorms” seems to follow a population density map of the US every year in these online forecasts. Must be a coincidence

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to.

It’s snowing! Still on the mountain (some cell service) and it’s alternating between bursts of dendrites and sleety rain. Moss is a bit white. Totally worth the trip.

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip.