SnowenOutThere

Thanks! I got super lucky with the sun breaking out. Always love entering Whiteoak through the lower entrance as the whole place is just magical.

Tried to hike around the mountains south of Shenandoah and hit Crabtree falls. Unfortunately, it was located on the north slope which still had copious wet, slippery, and annoying sleet. I got .3 miles in before deciding it wasn't worth it. Instead I got some pictures of the country around which was a decent consolation prize.

I agree. What’s it range?

Frankly, if you were chasing some of the Euro Ai runs with a foot plus for the forum from a miller B and that’s why the gfs was disappointing you’re delusional. Not saying we can’t get that scenario to work someday but I would never, ever, take the low chance it has of verifying over a higher percent but lower max storm like the GFS output

You’re in a slightly different spot than me or some other members of the forum. You can gamble more with a primary secondary interaction thanks to having a colder base climo and being located north. Frankly, not even NOVA should really want to bet on that happening This is a true and valid point but think of it this way. I am often the warning shot for nova much like you guys are the warning shot for Fredrick and points north. If I am getting completely skunked by a miller B it shows who’s next in line to get shafted. Meanwhile, with a setup as the 18z gfs had it you have less upside yes, but way more wiggle room

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

And its right next to February 20th! Storms always go well near that date and never fall apart within four days!

How do you even get this sounding? What sort of meteorological setup gets you this?

There's reason to be optimistic but I really can't buy into this being a real significant snowstorm till we get inside two days. Additionally, I'm at UVA so I'd need something truly crazy to get snow out of this. Sorta nice to not worry about this one

Now THIS is how you thread the needle!

Begging people to not get invested in a late season Miller B to get a major winter storm. It's more than possible but unless you're north of PSU its not worth it to get invested till we got the track down to an atypically south storm! Hoping it works out for you guys but we've seen how this normally plays out!

Nah I don't got a dog in this fight. I'm in Cvill lmao

CMC shows the potential danger of instead having too strong of a low that is located too far west. Once again, its a thread the needle event so we just got to wait and see.