SnowenOutThere

Betting we get storms that pop up in the inner burbs once the gust front hits the bay/river breeze boundary. The gust front came through a bit ago and dropped temps nearly 15 degrees so it’s legit. Now about to get some rain hopefully.

Any met want to weigh in on if Spruce Knob WV should be clear enough to stargaze tonight? Seems like it’s my last day to do so for a while.

Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing?

We’re already over 2000 CAPE, -6 lifting index, 7.5 ML lapse rates, and lost 150 CIN in the past three hours. It sucks we have no shear or forcing because our thermodynamic parameters are really good! We even got 1200 DCAPE for severe winds. Maybe a bay breeze boundary can get parcels to the LFC?

I like how at the end of its run we get days of summer storms. Hot and humid of course, but with daily storms is nice.

Gorgeous sunset alert

Surprised to see storms coming into VA from WV that seem to be holding together. Interested to see what happens to them.

Just a shame that it can’t be used again in winter forecasting. Though that makes sense as the NAM is pretty bad with spring-fall systems and convective events. Can’t have your cake and eat it to I suppose.

Any met or anyone know the reasoning for the NAM decommission? It still seems more accurate than its successor and a far better tool for winter wx. I mean, it was only the NAM on Jan 25th this year which got close to accurate mixing line accounts. Just seems like a weird decision.

Went for a walk this morning through the forested areas of my neighborhood along creeks. Despite yesterday they were almost just as dry, but at least the pools had some flow between them!

Had a nice shelf cloud come through as I drove home. Made a pit stop by a lake to get some shots, but wish I managed to get to the Herndon metro parking lot roof to see the oranges/purples of the rain behind them. Surrounding area got 0.4-0.5 inches of rain which is the most we've gotten in a long time. Felt good to finally hear heavy rain again.

I don’t know if it can. Our Cape values are 250ish compared to WV 500-1000.

The radar right now reminds me of the January 3rd storm from 2022 with a front shutting off moisture flow to the north.

Man that's a weird temperature distribution. Seems like you have a pretty scattered low level inversion considering the valleys are colder than the mountains?

.08; missed the good stuff by a couple miles to the north.