SnowenOutThere

West Virginia color was pretty good when I was out there in early October. Driving through Monetary area last weekend after my snow hike and the colors were in peak and looked pretty. Then again, areas further west and south of NOVA were spared from the drought, and so far colors around Charlottesville haven’t been great.

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality.

Might be the shortest AFD I've read put out by LWX this morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories issued through Thursday afternoon for an extended period of minor tidal flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. Surface high pressure continues to build north of the forecast area through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, and limited cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s. High pressure will build southward out of southeastern Canada and eastern Great Lakes region Saturday through Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected each day. There could be some areas of frost Saturday morning. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday with highs 5 to 7 degrees below average and highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday, temperatures will be more seasonable. Monday will encounter highs approaching or reaching the 70 degree mark. By Tuesday, temperatures may be knocked down to seasonable once again. Highs in the middle 60s.

Funny how “worst of winter” and “big snowstorms” seems to follow a population density map of the US every year in these online forecasts. Must be a coincidence

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to.

It’s snowing! Still on the mountain (some cell service) and it’s alternating between bursts of dendrites and sleety rain. Moss is a bit white. Totally worth the trip.

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip.

Sun is out in Charlottesville!

Love when we get a wedge like this, makes for some easy and great photography if you're willing to wake with the sun.

Also, went out and drove 30 minutes to the Rockfish Valley Overlook off the blue ridge parkway! Got an amazing sunrise knowing the valley's would be in the cloud deck.

Thank you all. Agree that the 6z run really didn't go the right way... but, the 12z runs are interesting. They manage get a band of precip with lift from a deeper H5 trough and saturate the DGZ. Will need to monitor and if the 18z and 0z runs show it then I think it might be worth it. Wouldn't really be upslope, but just orthographic cooling of a band of precip which feels less risky to chase.

Both HRRR and NAM show first snows for the mountains this Saturday morning. Considering a hike out there but the soundings seem fishy. Would there even be enough of a layer for precipitation to occur? If so, would any snowflakes even form or would I get to hike in cloudy drizzle? Don't know the answers would love some help from our mets @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @Eskimo Joe I plan to head out and try and hike early Saturday morning at the Cheat Mountain range at 4200-4400 feet and would love to make sure I don't drive 3 hours to hike in a cold, windy, freezing rain fog.

It actually gives us three separate snow storms that run starting October 25th.

Had a nice late sunset with a moon over the South Lawn tonight.