SnowenOutThere

Anyways, I’m hopefully checking out for tonight. Everyone else I hope you can bring us home.

Ehhhh NAM is blurring those lines. Frankly, we need some form of coastal in order to maximize our IVT. Even if the best dynamics and lift is provided by the IVT it needs to coastal moisture fetch to actually precipitate.

It actually was encouraging to me as it’s H5 setup is different than the GFS and shows another way to score

NAM is better for the coastal fans but worse for the people who want to bet on the H5 pass to get snow

For the record we've now blown by the previous most daily posts count for all previous threads this winter.

Here is their base snowfall map btw Any met want to weigh in on what the hell is going on with the Shenandoah's? I know that their elevation and upslope will help them but is this just the NWS graphic overdoing it or human made?

I love the sentiment but I think this storm should be a special case. I mean IF this continues to trend well it'll be the first storm in 10 years that trends well inside day 5 and of all possible storms to do so it's some weird coastal miller B during February with a bad airmass. This is the people's storm

The view after the 18z Euro

Yep. I personally just focused on the NS and SW interaction as that's where my pay grade is (and without that going right we don't have a storm) but you're right. It was a major concession on pretty much every feature.

Whos ready for the biggest long range NAM hallucination run of the winter!

What the fuck. I was doing homework the last hour and played the 18z euro and my jaw dropped. It did the thing where it elongates the NS like the GFS. In my opinion it made an absolutely massive shift at the H5. It just failed to really capture the SW wave and get it as far west. While I think that is still a pie in the sky dream it just went from impossible to "extremely improbable".

Hey it can always be a teaching tool of the perfect H5 setup!

I'm not smart enough to identify the causes of the H5 differences I've pointed out but I imagine its some initial dance of our NS around the one centered further east in Canada.

Surface low is 2mb higher and shifted maybe 20ish miles eastward. Honestly, I expected a large cave but here we are.