SnowenOutThere

My final point on this is this equation. Feel free to ignore it, discard it, call it wrong or whatever else. Just think through what it might be saying IF its true (which for the record it is and is in a textbook from a hundred years ago!)

Yk it’s bait when we have people who’s never post in here normally saying shit. Not quite sure why we even tolerate them at all frankly

I mean PSU can answer this better than me (after all I was too young to remember a time before perfect rainstorm tracking) but what I assume is that before the significant warming events of the 2012 and 2016 ninos which some may argue set new climate baselines the ability for us to get those setups was easier. Though, I'm sure you were already losing some of those setups on the margins but no one quite cared as it still was snowing enough. Now its flipped where more often than not they fail... so it all seems sudden. Fortunately I never got to experience that pre climate hell baseline so I'll never know what we've lost. Though, even last winter that January storm we just missed a real snowstorm by a factor of a couple degrees. Additionally, you got knock on effects of thermal boundaries, storm track, jet stream, etc shifting around.

Beautiful day out getting to near 60 degrees and sunny. Last of the snow melting away with maybe 30% coverage. Honestly, I've loved the snow but man it made hiking and most of my activities impossible. Glad to see it go.

I think PSU would agree with my take on this but its never quite that easy. Its background presence has been increasing. Some setups might still be cold enough, some setups wont be. Over time our marginal setups will only become more likely to fall on the not cold enough side. So its not like some year will mark the end of our marginal setups forever, instead its a slow decline. Ofc to not make this political this phenomenon is unique to only snowstorms and has no broader causes, effects or solutions.

I assume by thermal boundary you mean more upper air 925-850mb level?

We are an atmospheric science board so why is it suddenly controversial to discus a whole field of it? Seriously it’s like saying we couldn’t discuss 500mb height maps or vort maps because they’re “political”. They both directly impact our storms and climate zones. It is what it is

Eh technically the h20 vapor feedback is less important than you’d think. When I was younger I thought the same thing but it turns out the lifetime of water vapor is so low it prevents this buildup. Ofc, it’s still significant to our warming but not doomsday feedback look. Methane and permafrost release is more concerning but we also have some negative feedback loops for now.

Boutta hit that half foot of snow in Shenandoah fr

Quick question for you but are the models getting the high peaks of our mountains correct and if so why aren’t they snowing? Hypothetically they should be 6-8 degrees cooler than surrounding valleys and snow but they don’t seem to show that

It really isn’t. It’s just math. The math equation states there are three factors which influence earths surface temperature. 1. Solar forcing (sunspots vary it by .001% so sure .001% of our warming is natural best case) 2. Albedo 3. Atmospheric absorption. Now, only molecules which undergo a vibrational transformation when impacted with solar radiation of a certain wavelength are greenhouse gasses (hence why nitrogen or oxygen in their own don’t increase heat). Can you guess those molecules? CO2, methane, cfcs, h20, etc. now what molecules do we pump into the atmosphere? It’s not political.

Yeah you wont at winchesters weak ass 1000ft elevation but I’m talking 3000ft+. You basically transform the whole climate regime as you lose close to 8 whole degrees adiabatically! Ofc, this storm isn’t ideal for the elevation component as it’s flooding warmth even up to 850 in some runs with warm air but it’s well within the realm of possibility to get snow there.

I mean moist adiabatic lapse rate is around 4 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet so if you're just looking to see snow and willing to drive out to the mountains/Shenandoah we are really just focusing on the 850mb and 925mb temps to be at 0 or below. As long as we have that we should be good for the mountains.

Highk a 2-4in non elevation dependent is the best to hike up in. Keeps the roads passable but at the top of the mountain you get 6+

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.