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SnowenOutThere

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About SnowenOutThere

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    IAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Fairfax/UVA

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  1. SnowenOutThere
    Can see the cold front pushing south through the area defined by the line of showers on the radar. The SPC surface map shows the wind shift too!
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Definitionally anything generated by LLM is “ai slop”. AI models have no concern for the truth value of any generated output. They only care about predicting the next token/pixel/line no matter how right, wrong, pretty, or sloppy it looks. Furthermore, LLMs generally suck at broad tasks. They fake confidence and competence. Ask AI about your own special interest or hobby and you will find its output riddled with rather elementary errors in reasoning. Yes, sometimes it has the right “answer” but there is no process, the appearance of a process is just it predicting the actual process that would be there. Now, this only really applies to LLM models, as once you get into machine learning in general you can make it very good at these tasks. But, for what it’s worth, this is why LLMs should never be used in forecasting or forecasting graphic generation (ofc “AI” models are machine learning systems and have value”)
  3. SnowenOutThere
    UVA Sunset after a convective complex rolled through.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    3K NAM tracks a strong bowing segment through the area around 1am.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    I'm wondering how this winter might be different for myself down in Charlottesville. Obviously, I'm still in the hope for a big storm category but otherwise are there any meaningful differences?
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Ens are pretty rough. EPS goes cool for a bit around labor day before running back the heatwave we're in by late next week. CMCE keeps things cooler with more backdoor fronts. GEFS is a bit of a mix between the two that keeps us on the south side of any fronts, but has colder air up in PA.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Hoping Cvill can get in on the action once the ridge starts to break down towards the weekend.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    That’s why you gotta go out to them. It snows at the drop of a cold front out there. Last year I managed to sneak in an early November snow hike and a couple throughout January.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    @NorthArlington101Turns out UVA liked them too as I'm now a post on their Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/p/DclqopRDcKi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsi=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Storms ruined my picnic plans last night, but once they moved out to the southeast they put on one of the most incredible lightning shows I've seen. One of those times were even other, presumably "normal" people stop to look up at the sky. Bolt after bolt ran along the clouds for hours. Had the privilege of walking down to watch it once with a friend and then later on with my camera. Won't be a night to forget.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Tomorrow is gonna be elite. DP will be below 55 degrees for the first time in who knows how long.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Got to my apartment today and it was a good storm. Not much wind but tons of good lightning and thunder.
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