SnowenOutThere
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Still have 1000+ CAPE for the immediate suburbs to help wring out the now moist atmosphere. As long as we can buy some forcing we should be able to rain. Hopefully the front sags south to help out the people who got skunked earlier.
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One of the freakier experiences I’ve had so far with thunderstorms. Went for a brief walk once the gust front passed and could feel the new cells building ontop of me. Super gusty winds with low level scud clouds moving every which way.
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I need that cell out near the plains to hold together and not drift north. Still hasn't shown a microburst signature of collapse yet, but the gust front is far out ahead of it so I doubt it can keep going forever.
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Southern severe cell is aimed directly at my backyard. Time to see if it falls apart or microbursts overhead.
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Areas along the Fredrick cells might need a flash flood warning with the training motion if they don’t collapse on themselves.
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Two more severe warnings just went up out near the VA/WV border
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. -
Anywho, low level lapse rates are past 9 degrees C/km so we’re approaching unconditionally unstable with 2000+ Cape and 1300 DCape. I’d imagine things pop off quickly near DC once outflow boundaries reach us
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They have 40 day forecasts in the future you know!
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We did get a 2inch precip storm in January. Just nothing before or after. Which seems to be our pattern now
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Even yesterday could feel the ability for the DCape to work its magic from the gust front winds alongside gusty winds with a downpour. Just need some taller cells to full take advantage of it.- 376 replies
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Betting we get storms that pop up in the inner burbs once the gust front hits the bay/river breeze boundary. The gust front came through a bit ago and dropped temps nearly 15 degrees so it’s legit. Now about to get some rain hopefully.
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Any met want to weigh in on if Spruce Knob WV should be clear enough to stargaze tonight? Seems like it’s my last day to do so for a while.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing? -
We’re already over 2000 CAPE, -6 lifting index, 7.5 ML lapse rates, and lost 150 CIN in the past three hours. It sucks we have no shear or forcing because our thermodynamic parameters are really good! We even got 1200 DCAPE for severe winds. Maybe a bay breeze boundary can get parcels to the LFC?
