SnowenOutThere

Looks like we get another round later today in the afternoon from our NW.

Wanted to ask you or other Mets if the CSL (swim league) should consider moving divisionals, our league wide qualifying meet for all stars, to Sunday. Warmups start 6am and meet starts 8am, ends by 12pm. @NorthArlington101 if you have any thoughts lmk.

Cancelled practice on deck. Seems to be a little bit better now as the ABL should keep rising.

Our AQI is hitting into mid-high 300s right now, over 100 from what was forecasted. Wish I pushed to cancel practice.

It’s nasty out there. Smell is worse than I remembered from a couple years ago. AQI is around 150 so we still aren’t in the worst of it.

This is one of the more legitimate discussions we've gotten this year. Not too often large hail is mentioned so often for us. 3k NAM into the future has CAPE nearly reaching 5000 in ffx county as the first round of storms roll through. Has appreciable supercell/tor composite values thanks to the shear mentioned in the AFD and some turning with height alongside the directional stuff. As mentioned, even after it gets dark we stay with impressive CAPE values of 3000+! Question for our mets, but could the D-word get tossed around with that line of storms overnight?

Isn't this blatantly wrong? It's the HRRR that always has the overmixing problem, just in the past couple setups the soundings from the Nam may show 3000 CAPE while HRRR is out with 1000 or less. This is a good reminder that AI is bullshit; as in it is extremely confident but has no actual checks on if it is true which is my personal definition of bullshit. It always sounds "correct" until it is your field of expertise you ask it on.

It shunts the 200+ near surface smoke off to our east (Capeland) so we get values around 100. Talked to the team reps for my swim team and fought to get practices reduced from 1 hour to 45 minutes for age groups tomorrow. My atmosphere course last fall really emphasized how pm is not something you want to play around with when it comes to nearly any exposure. It's the day before divisionals so we're tapering anyways.

I generally think he tends to be a jaded weenie where he predicts warmth but gets sucked into a snow threat when it appears. That said, he’s better than most online forecasters and does know his technical stuff. He’s a guy who I’d rather have on our side when forecasting a storm but he’s been wrong before too.

Ten years ago was when the 2016 nino altered our base state to be warmer thanks to climate change. Since then we’ve dealt with that consequence by having often warm winters which lack in the snowfall department, so I’d imagine the base state change is probably a major player for the fires as well.

Looks like Thursday morning will be rough according to the HRRR. Interestingly it keeps west of the blue ridge/shenandoah shielded from the near surface smoke.

The bay/river boundary pushing across ffx county is desperately trying to get a storm going up over Reston. Have watched it grow for the past 10 minutes.

Got a flush hit with the ffx cell. Ominous vibes as the first half of the storm had ever increasing rainfall rates that climbed past 1, then 2, then 3 inch/hour as gusts of wind came through. Hit the peak of 3.4 inch/hour as the wind died out, some of the heaviest rates I’ve ever seen. Made even my family come out to look. Still pouring but estimating I’ll finish around a bit above an inch (maybe more if the secondary cell over Dulles hits too). If you look at a longer radar loop (codnexrad is my favorite site for that) you can see how the outflow boundary from MD interacted with the leftover boundary in western fairfax to pop the storms right along it. Neat stuff.

Ngl I’m getting better at this whole forecasting thing.

Good boundary is moving south. Seems there might be an old remnant (from yesterday I guess) one north to south across western ffx county as well. Maybe that with the Reston UHI/city convergence can get something going.