SnowenOutThere

Any met want to weigh in on a question I have. Trying to figure out if I should hike Shenandoah today or tomorrow to get the best chance at pictures of the tops shrouded in clouds. I plan to hike to old rag which is around 3000ft and overlooks skyline drive up towards 3500ft so I need the LCL to be 3400ft for my plan to work. So far I think today is a safer bet but also more miserable hiking wise

I think we still got a solid shot at a 1-3 inch paste job but unless we get the GFS to be mostly right anything bigger is unlikely.

Exactly, I wouldn't call it bad but it definitely isn't good. It's honestly a more realistic depiction of what this setup has to offer which is a 1-3 storm with the coastal missing east.

Chesapeake bay lost 60+ inches

God its so close

To those saying the CMC is good I respectfully disagree. Its extremely close to being good but as is doesn't quite get the rates needed to dynamically cool the column. Hopefully the next panel proves me wrong

Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture

CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass.

No. We need the Euro and another day. The issue with a setup like this is that if everything shifts 100 miles east its game over, we are relying on a coastal low bombing out at the perfect time thanks to specific placement of upper level features. This isn't a setup I'd bank on happening till even inside 36 hours.

Yeah. I suppose there are two maxes to this setup. First is more 18z GFS where we really amp up the initial low and its thump while getting some extra snow from the H5 and coastal interaction. Second would be what the 0z moved towards where the thump is a bit worse but coastal is further west. In between the two maxes you have the relative low point, but if our low point is 5-8 inches I'm okay with that.

Here is the snowfall map as the bulk of the precip is over. Interestingly, it is worse than 18z. I personally don't really care because I liked the H5 and surface low interaction more.

Its even better than its 18z run. It has a slightly stronger and more westward H5

Thanks for the advice to look up a bit higher for the jet streaks. I used to do that but I forgot and assumed H5 lmao. Anyways, the real thing that my analysis made me realize is that if the GFS/CMC were to shift 50-100 miles west we actually have some real potential here. I mean right now we can see how the jet streaks are too far displaced east and subsequently so is the low pressure. An adjustment west wouldn't be crazy and we'd suddenly be looking at a dangerous setup! Of course, that would require something going right for us which seems... hard to come by recently.

Why I like the GFS and CMC Part 1: 500mb wind analysis Both the GFS and CMC have a potent ULL at the H5 layer dive southward and close off from the prevailing flow. This directs a 500mb jet streak to develop directly to the south of this closed off low and if the strength/placement of the the ULL is correct it puts us directly in the LER (left exit region) of a rather intense jet streak which promotes upper level diffluence I mean look at that! It's nearly perfectly placed to help us squeeze out whatever moisture we have in the column by lifting it upwards. The impact of our jet streak induced diffluence is easily seen in our vorticity map. Notice how the vorticity nearly perfectly follows where that jet streak is located. This is a great sign that we could get some good lift throughout the atmosphere! If we are nitpicking then I would generally want to see a ULL that is both further south, a bit west (though too far starts to risk thermal issues), but most importantly is more neg tilt and stronger! Part 2: Moisture Transport and Low Level Winds Since the DGZ seems to be located around 700mb on the soundings and we have lift from the 900mb layer up into the DGZ we are looking to see moisture transport anywhere between 900-700mb. Luckily that is exactly what the GFS offers! We can see on the 850mb wind maps we have a closed low off the NC coast which promotes easterly winds off the Atlantic which helps provide us a decent moisture fetch. This same principal applies for the layers of 925-700ish mb but the wind becomes more out of the south; which though is worse than directly from the Atlantic it's still not terrible. Part 3: Baroclinicity There is a rather pronounced baroclinic boundary for this low to feed off of and intensify in accordance with it and the favorable H5 dynamics. As we can see we have a rather strong thermal gradient right off NC with temperatures reaching near 70 next to a 20+ degree temp drop to the NW. My only concern is that this gradient is more W-E focused where we would rather have a N/S gradient to help the H5 pull the storm up the coast. In conclusion There is a lot to like about this setup IF the GFS/CMC is right! While placement of where the coastal low is captured and various details which are very impactful are yet to be worked out as long as we have these players on the field we got a chance! However, this is not a post necessarily stating I think this is likely or the most plausible outcome (we really need the Euro to come aboard) but simply analyzing what this storm has the potential to be.

Going to make a relatively brief synoptic analysis of why I actually sorta like this setup IF we get a H5 setup akin to the GFS or CMC.