SnowenOutThere

Notice how the people now agitating the thread with anti-hurricane center posts are the same ones who were absent till landfall. They’re not worth the time to debunk.

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach, but when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing signs soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves, that is still in that process of an intensification jump.

Cloud deck reminds me of how it looks before a big winter's storm. Last year before our sleetfest we had a brilliant sunrise in the morning. Crazy what some high clouds can do

Cross posting here from the Mid-Atl subform. Crazy the scale of this storm with the jet streak induced diffluence aloft.

Managed to get my (now major) hurricane sunrise this morning! Some low clouds blocked it a bit, but still well worth the early morning.

Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon.

Looked at the soundings and I think we should have a great Hurricane sunrise/set tomorrow! HRRR shows high clouds over the region by sunrise with soundings seemingly there to support it. Same story but a thicker layer is there for the evening/night. Would love to get some Met feedback to back up by hunch before I set an alarm for 6:00am! @WxUSAF@Eskimo Joe@Rhino16 @CAPE

It better be. One of my favorite parts of the season is marveling at the synoptics behind those storms (and using them for practice!). Maybe I’ll make some breakdowns of the really crazy ones.

We all know the reason we love this forum is not the analysis, the friends, or the banter - but to see blue (maybe even purple or pink!) pixels appear on your screen. This thread is dedicated to the storms that could've been, should've been, or are plain ridiculous. Today officially kicks the start to our season with a good old fashioned CFS run!

It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now.

Seems to be right on the verge of becoming a hurricane based on the latest pass. No new pressure measurement so they may have missed the center.

Forgot this whole subform existed till now! Though the recon this morning showed a weaker storm than expected based on IR presentation, it also appears to be on it's way to vertical alignment of its low levels with the convection flares now surrounding the center. Will be very interesting to see if the next recon flight shows strengthening as it flies through the storm; if it does, then we might be setting up for a bout of rapid intensification overnight as I believe that is the best window in terms of wind shear (and diurnal max).

Will caution those who loves the latest CANSIPS pattern. While it looks good for storm track, the heights rising off the East coast give me some pause as we've been burned by a good NAO high pressure linking with the southeastern ridge. Additionally, with temperature anomalies in the Gulf stream being several degrees above average I wonder if the models may underestimate the southeastern ridge. Of course, too far out to draw any real conclusions, but I might favor a further west track than the H5 alone would suggest. Think it might be a big year for the mountains, especially the ridges that will be a few (possibly key) degrees colder. Also think @mitchnick's theory that it will be winter where we might have to be patient and watch a lot of rainstorms that slowly pull the boundary south before we get a limited window to get a follow up wave. That said, I could see a @psuhoffman nightmare situation where we see the boundary be pushed south before getting a perfect track rainstorm with snow confined solely to the high mountains due to just not having enough cold air. By the end of October we should have a better picture as the October NAO negative correlation to winter's NAO is our first real significant one.

Back in Charlottesville. Got to 43 degrees for the low and was around 62 degrees when biking to Grounds. Perfect fall morning weather. Sat outside for a bit before class just to soak it in.

I win! 28 degrees down in Cannan valley this morning. House we rented was on a hill and stayed above freezing, while the valley had pockets of freezing fog and frost. Will find some more pictures from my trip to share later.