SnowenOutThere
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About SnowenOutThere
- Currently Viewing Topic: May Discobs 2026
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Great Falls was pretty nice today. Full but not overflowing and the trees/plants all looked happy.
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Looks like all the models give us another .5-2 inches of rain beyond this current system. CMC and GFS have it mainly fall on Monday-Tuesday with it's specific disturbance while Euro focuses it more with Thursday.
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If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac.
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For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.
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I’ll happily be enjoying my 30 degrees with ripping snow on the trails of WV.
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I like the look of everything down south right now. Besides, our main rain batch is tomorrow all day (morning rain shield to spotty heavy showers).
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Still have 1000+ CAPE for the immediate suburbs to help wring out the now moist atmosphere. As long as we can buy some forcing we should be able to rain. Hopefully the front sags south to help out the people who got skunked earlier.
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One of the freakier experiences I’ve had so far with thunderstorms. Went for a brief walk once the gust front passed and could feel the new cells building ontop of me. Super gusty winds with low level scud clouds moving every which way.
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I need that cell out near the plains to hold together and not drift north. Still hasn't shown a microburst signature of collapse yet, but the gust front is far out ahead of it so I doubt it can keep going forever.
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Southern severe cell is aimed directly at my backyard. Time to see if it falls apart or microbursts overhead.
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Areas along the Fredrick cells might need a flash flood warning with the training motion if they don’t collapse on themselves.
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Two more severe warnings just went up out near the VA/WV border
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling. -
Anywho, low level lapse rates are past 9 degrees C/km so we’re approaching unconditionally unstable with 2000+ Cape and 1300 DCape. I’d imagine things pop off quickly near DC once outflow boundaries reach us
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They have 40 day forecasts in the future you know!
