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SnowenOutThere

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About SnowenOutThere

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    IAD
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    Male
  • Location:
    Fairfax/UVA

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  1. SnowenOutThere
    You know more than me of course, but I have to think we’re seeing the pattern shift happening. We’ve now had a string of strong lows move by to our north, which if it wasn’t mid summer and the thermal boundary wasn’t up in Canada they would be our synoptic rainfalls instead of convection along the cold front. Now this week looks to have a cutoff low over the northeast that dumps rain too. We still might have some dry periods but it seems, to me at least, the real drought period is over.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Man, the silver line extends out to Reston for a reason. You’d get a whole 30 minutes to maybe even an hour of more snow before the flip to rain in our warmer 2016 redux.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Took advantage of the excellent weather yesterday to hike sky meadows. Only an hour ride from NOVA and nearly a straight shot on 66 West. Wasn't expecting too much, but was blown away by the views it offered. Highly recommend to anyone wanting to go on a relatively easy escape into nature. Best part of course was the weather. Mid to low 70s in the forest with nice dewpoints too. Also had the moon as nice friend the whole hike!
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Beautiful morning out. On ffx county parkway where it overpasses 50 could finally see past the blue ridge way to the distant mountains. Otherwise, mid 60s and low humidity means I get to wear a jacket today to coach!
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Not enough people are talking about the legendary stretch of weather coming up from tomorrow till Saturday. Highs barely past 80 degrees and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in MID JULY. It’ll be the first look ahead to fall weather wise!
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Think I'll get to the herndon metro tower as my chase spot. Looks to get a good view as it comes in.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    PDS warning issued. When is the last time we've had that
  8. SnowenOutThere
    TDS on radar
  9. SnowenOutThere
    The stuff over WV has grown up enough to where it should be able to get some good rain for all of NOVA I think.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    I'm cautiously optimistic we might be able to get something later on today. Our kinematics get better into the evening/night and we should have a fine enough thermo environment to support storms. Once forcing/WV complex arrives may be able to have that serve as our forcing, but it may be too far south.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    If you look on RadarScope right now it seems to have a debris ball possibly? May just be wind kicking up leaves but I’m not sure. The cell isn’t even TOR warned though…
  12. SnowenOutThere
    We have a small Lee trough signature out along I-81 I think. It’s pretty weak though.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    The first part of this point is super important when it comes to our severe ability. Convective instability isn’t really because it’s hot out with some humidity, it’s a measure of how much energy a parcel can release as it traverses the atmosphere. Water carries a lot of heat with it, so despite us being clouded over since it’s so wet out we have 3000+ CAPE over the region. Additionally, airs ability to hold water increases exponentially, it’s why a dewpoint change from 40 -> 50 feels fine, but 60 -> 70 is rough. Hence, we have a ton of energy stored through all that extra water. The issue without heating is that you need forcing to cause storms as you don’t get natural convective currents to help out. I’m not qualified to know if our Lee trough will be enough to pop storms, but In some ways I wonder that a lack of heating could help our severe odds today. Since we don’t have a cap traditionally storm overcrowding could be a fail mode, but with poor level lapse rates maybe it will mitigate overcrowding.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    I haven’t looked a ton at the setup and won’t be able till past midday. It seems similar up Monday but with less CAPE traded for better shear both upper and lower levels. Considering we got some supercells then, I see no reason why we couldn’t get them today.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    I mean it won’t happen but those are (to my relatively novice eye) insane soundings. I mean what crazy low level shear both speed and directionally. Not to mention 7 c/km ML lapse rates and high cape. It won’t verify, but maybe we can at least snag a decent nighttime storm.
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