SnowenOutThere

Thank you, I try to share what I learn in my courses with the forum to pass it forward. Also, it's nice that you're learning all that stuff. If you ever have questions about the global climate response piece I can help you with that (carbon cycle wise I've lost most of that knowledge post AP environmental science in Junior year). While learning the concepts might not (but hopefully does) feel interesting they lay the groundwork for understanding the atmosphere as a dynamic system. I don't know what you plan to major in (you have a lot of years to figure that out, if you want to go to college that is) but if it's related to atmospheric science/environmental science you will thank yourself for paying attention now. I understand your feeling on this but I truly believe that most everyone in this subforum is capable of understanding the math behind our climate; after all, it's a mix of algebra and the most basics of calculus alongside understanding some concepts (those being the solar constant, albedo effect, and greenhouse gas effect). However, some very influential people have a strong vested interest in creating a reality where that equation is wrong. I do not blame the people for believing in that reality - no one wants to be wrong after all. That said, if there is one thing that my social psychology class has taught me it is that attitude change requires the ability to admit you're wrong which is a very difficult thing for people to do. The people who don't believe in climate change aren't stupid, they aren't evil, and they aren't backwards. They are humans. Yes, humans who are wrong on the issue, and yes humans who actions cause real harm, but you aren't ever going to change their minds by pretending they are somehow below you. If you truly care about changing other peoples minds then you need to put aside malice and extend empathy towards them with how you explain the concept. Ultimately, we are all extremely susceptible creatures to outside influences and the only way we can really understand one another is through seeing people as people and not a walking conglomeration of ideas. If you are one of the posters who disagree with me on climate change I want to say two things directly to you. 1. Thank you for reading this far. 2. Think about who benefits from a world where climate change doesn't exist. Think about how much political power and influence those groups have to loose if climate action occurs. Think about if those groups truly have your best intentions at heart of if they are trying to use you as a voting block to hold onto their power. Just think about it for a minute or two the next time year hear/read an anti-climate change ad or paper - and think about where the money for that ad came from. If you can't tell this moral goes beyond climate change for me.

I'm not sure a favorable Atlantic side would even save us with flow off the Pacific like that. Even if we got a strong -NAO pattern what would our cold air source be? I suppose you could try to get homegrown air from Canada but with an active STJ I wonder if you could ever reduce heat fluxes from the south enough to allow a real buildup of cold air.

West Virginia color was pretty good when I was out there in early October. Driving through Monetary area last weekend after my snow hike and the colors were in peak and looked pretty. Then again, areas further west and south of NOVA were spared from the drought, and so far colors around Charlottesville haven’t been great.

It's basic climatology driving this. The oceans have so far acted as the heat sink for the increased radiation that the strengthened greenhouse effect back-radiates to Earth. This is because their heat capacity is so much larger than air, and they release this heat in the form of latent/sensible heat flux when cold airmasses move over them in fall/winter. If you keep warming up the oceans it takes longer for them to cool off in fall and therefore you get increased temperatures from the latent/sensible heat flux off them. Our December warming is an exam question becoming reality.

Might be the shortest AFD I've read put out by LWX this morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories issued through Thursday afternoon for an extended period of minor tidal flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. Surface high pressure continues to build north of the forecast area through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, and limited cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s. High pressure will build southward out of southeastern Canada and eastern Great Lakes region Saturday through Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected each day. There could be some areas of frost Saturday morning. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday with highs 5 to 7 degrees below average and highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday, temperatures will be more seasonable. Monday will encounter highs approaching or reaching the 70 degree mark. By Tuesday, temperatures may be knocked down to seasonable once again. Highs in the middle 60s.

Funny how “worst of winter” and “big snowstorms” seems to follow a population density map of the US every year in these online forecasts. Must be a coincidence

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to.

It’s snowing! Still on the mountain (some cell service) and it’s alternating between bursts of dendrites and sleety rain. Moss is a bit white. Totally worth the trip.

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip.

Sun is out in Charlottesville!

Love when we get a wedge like this, makes for some easy and great photography if you're willing to wake with the sun.

Also, went out and drove 30 minutes to the Rockfish Valley Overlook off the blue ridge parkway! Got an amazing sunrise knowing the valley's would be in the cloud deck.

Thank you all. Agree that the 6z run really didn't go the right way... but, the 12z runs are interesting. They manage get a band of precip with lift from a deeper H5 trough and saturate the DGZ. Will need to monitor and if the 18z and 0z runs show it then I think it might be worth it. Wouldn't really be upslope, but just orthographic cooling of a band of precip which feels less risky to chase.

Both HRRR and NAM show first snows for the mountains this Saturday morning. Considering a hike out there but the soundings seem fishy. Would there even be enough of a layer for precipitation to occur? If so, would any snowflakes even form or would I get to hike in cloudy drizzle? Don't know the answers would love some help from our mets @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @Eskimo Joe I plan to head out and try and hike early Saturday morning at the Cheat Mountain range at 4200-4400 feet and would love to make sure I don't drive 3 hours to hike in a cold, windy, freezing rain fog.