Jump to content

SnowenOutThere

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,469

  • Joined

  • Last visited

4 Followers

About SnowenOutThere

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    IAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Fairfax/UVA

Recent Profile Visitors

12,889 profile views
  1. SnowenOutThere
    The radar right now reminds me of the January 3rd storm from 2022 with a front shutting off moisture flow to the north.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Man that's a weird temperature distribution. Seems like you have a pretty scattered low level inversion considering the valleys are colder than the mountains?
  3. SnowenOutThere
    .08; missed the good stuff by a couple miles to the north.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks for the confirmation, I’m just spitballing in these threads after seeing the mesoanalysis page so it’s nice to hear I’m on the right track. Quick question but what is downdraft cape in relation to cape itself? Seems a bit like an oxymoron from the name itself.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    We have decent mid level lapse rates (6.5), strong heating (8.5 low level lapse rates already), and strong increase of wind speed with height. Just don’t have any moisture! In the past I didn’t realize how much it mattered but after taking my courses this year at college the other half of cape is moisture availability. If only we had some higher humidity to generate cape today could’ve been a good severe weather squall line. Either way, if we get some added forcing we still could see a decent squall somewhere (maybe even relatively low precipitation so structure is more apparent?)
  6. SnowenOutThere
    It’s weird we can’t seem to buy even one nor easter or soaking rain event. Just constant weak NS waves. Honestly, it sorta feels like a winter pattern that just kept on lasting. Don’t know how we break out of it
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Hazardous weather outlook for some possible tstorms today. Discussion says that it’s meager unless we get some instability. That said, we seem to get at least an hour or so of clear skies for a bit this morning, but dunno if that’ll do anything. Actually, how much heating/clearing time wise is needed to “destabilize” the atmosphere?
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Huh, there’s clearing out near 1-81 and even in Reston (I’m back from uva for the summer) there was a peak of filtered sunshine. Seems we may be ahead of schedule.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    From LWX: Honestly a bit surprised tomorrow got such a long writeup but the increasing risk of storms became high enough to rule out a hike in Shenandoah tomorrow. Recent guidance has trended a bit slower with the front`s progression through the area, which could potentially allow for a bit more destabilization tomorrow afternoon. As a result, the trend has also been slightly upward with CAPE values. Much of the destabilization appears to occur as a result of low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface front, which causes dewpoints to rise into the low to mid 60s. That being said, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how much destabilization occurs, and also the areal coverage of storms that form. Shear certainly won`t be lacking tomorrow, with most soundings showing long, straight hodographs, with around 60 knots of effective bulk shear and over 100 knots of shear in the cloud bearing layer. So, if storms form, there is a conditional threat for supercells. The 12z HRRR for example, hinted at this possibility, with weak UH tracks. The thermodynamic environment is a bit odd, and casts uncertainty with respect to what hazards storms could potentially produce, if they occur at all. Model soundings show long, straight hodographs, which would normally be supportive of hail production. However, profiles are nearly saturated and moist-adiabatic at low-levels, with a considerable amount of the CAPE below the freezing level, which is unfavorable for hail production. Winds in the mid-upper levels are very strong, but aren`t overly impressive just above the surface. And model soundings show a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels (which yields DCAPE values around 700 J/kg), but very moist air at low-levels and poor low-level lapse rates, which would be unfavorable for transporting higher momentum air down from aloft. Machine learning guidance is downplaying the potential for severe thunderstorms, and SPC currently has us outlooked in general thunder. However, tomorrow is at least worth monitoring from a severe thunderstorm perspective given the CAPE/shear combination that could potentially be in place (high end scenario of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 60 knots of effective bulk shear).
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Would the mountains in WV get crushed with the storm track or is it even warm at 4000ft?
  11. SnowenOutThere
    NGL if the models still support some snow falling in WV I'll be taking a nice hike out there
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Those same cells (weakening ofc as they move out of the best thermodynamic environment into the wedge) are approaching UVA and Tech (though further SW like Tech got clearing and now has 1000+ SBCAPE) so will be interesting to see if they can at least hold together enough/become elevated and drop good rain and thunder. Charlottesville itself has gotten split the whole past week and needs a good downpour.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now!
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Cell I was talking about in WV has a well defined couplet with a debris ball though is still under a severe T-storm warning
×
×
  • Create New...