SnowenOutThere

Southern/central VA 1-3 inch events have been my specialty this year

Gotta feel bad for them after getting shafted by this storm and the one that hit us. At least we aren't them.

Its a great look. I would replay last weekend over and over again if I could as we got probably the "worst" outcome we could besides suppression given the pattern.

Remember when everyone was calling this threat dead at 12z. Good times. Seriously though we gotta see how our current failure plays out to know what this one will do so we got at least two more days of model swinging.

Yeah would suck to get a total of 2 inches of snow before the flip to sleet and then watch a storm hit south... Seriously though it is what it is and we'll have more chances. Don't need to doom and gloom yet.

If it’s based on this weekend they are completely different setups. Besides this weekend was never a good chance! It had a high upside but the ens barely ever had a 30%+ of an inch!

If you look at past runs like yesterday that had the storm further north we had an 850 low in the Ohio valley which was advecting warm air northward. It’s a delicate balance and id rather be on the southern end than the rainy northern end.

Not sure why we’re crashing out so hard right now. It’s nearly 6 days away and will take time to resolve. Besides if this storm goes north we rain! Frankly it being to our south is the best shot we get something frozen even if we aren’t the jack zone

This seems fine? No need to panic yet as it’s still a good depiction.

Yeah, I think next week is a far better setup percentage wise to get us some snow. I never liked this week because it was an all or nothing and we needed so many things to go right to get it to work. Meanwhile next week just needs a decent wave track which is something we could possibly get.

Ngl if I see this graphic again without significant snowfall from it imma crash out

It was honestly really impressive. Though only having ohill open for three days was rough for some people on Sunday and Monday. I just survived off my Saturday 6am wegmans bakery run

UVA canceled (all online) Monday and Tuesday with a 10am start yesterday and now it’s back to normal. They did an incredible job internally with ice removal but Charlottesville is a complete mess so a ton of professors are self canceling.

I like this map. If we can get the disturbance underneath us we don’t need to worry too much about the 18z gfs rainstorm in a cold pattern outcome. Instead we get an 18z ai gfs snowstorm for the whole forum.

Remarkably similar to last weeks setup. As a reminder to folks it took a truly Herculean amount of things to go wrong for that setup to “bust” as badly as it did.