SnowenOutThere

Feels properly like a wet blanket out there.

Will that help with severe chances today or just help convection start? Seems we have Cape and not much else to work with today (bad shear, bad ML lapse rates, okay surface lapse rates). Either way how likely do you think it is we get some thunder today? I’m head coach for a swim team from 3:45 to 6:15pm so I gotta monitor the situation.

Wait. You're the capital weather gang Ian right? I want you all at capital weather gang to know you're a large part of how I've learned meteorology. I remember my 5th grade teacher let me read the articles from her laptop and that being my first exposure to real forecasting (outside of books I managed to find). I can recall how I'd wait for the updates before each snowstorm and trying to figure out the storm breakdowns based on the guides about Miller A vs B vs inland track storms CWG published. It was comments on those articles which was how I even found this forum (which I've mentioned before as invaluable and some place I love). Now I'm now majoring in Environmental Science and plan to take every atmospheric science course I can (already took the base one and one about microclimatology); I've even managed to learn the processes behind some of the articles the team has published, but I will always be your teams debt. Thank you both for the important forecasting/media outreach you all do to keep people safe, and for making science interesting.

Funny how much it looks like a winter storm advisory with how its all displaced northwest.

Also PDS severe T-storm warning just north of Cumberland across the PA line.

SPC mesoanalysis shows 500+ (and increasing) CAPE, okay enough ML lapse rates, better LL lapse rates, and 30kt effective shear 0-6km all in the NOVA area. With a forward motion towards the metro of 35ish MPH and it being 100 miles away it should approach us by sundown. I think we could at least get a decent line of showers and storms with much needed rainfall. Maybe Harper's ferry and MD will get some nasty severe weather too.

I saw that but I think it’s unlikely. G3 would require dark sky and a good camera even if it had the right parameters. Currently the particle density is rather pitiful and the bz is positive which is bad as well.

That's a question for @WxUSAF or @MillvilleWx as they understand how atmospheric forcing causes pattern changes. I am at the point where I can tell you the pattern to look for and if models show it.

Tried to look at the 500mb to get a better answer. As others in this thread have said the basic issue is we are stuck in a NW flow pattern. The maps (one from our rainy week a couple weeks ago and one from a day ago) show the difference This one clearly shows a southeast ridge with a ULL in the plains which helps transport moisture up the east coast and wring it out. Clearly, this is the pattern we need to get some rain. Notice the wind barbs out of the southeast from the Gulf. Meanwhile, this is the pattern we get. Beautiful weather but no moisture to be found in the upper air (unless you're hoping the Great Lakes save us). You can see the ULL over Maine with a ridge over the center of the country. Now, the question is will things actually change? Using the EPS to look forward and its not great. The forecast through at least next week is paltry with the upper air moisture transport as a ridge intensifies to our north. However, by mid month the pattern starts to breakdown and we see a more favorable setup return. The GEFS suggests a similar reshuffling that helps us out as well. In the meantime, we're sorta cooked.

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck.

4.1 inches of rain since Wednesday. Went on a walk yesterday and all the rivers were flowing and the ponds/lakes were full with some minor flooding.

Great Falls was pretty nice today. Full but not overflowing and the trees/plants all looked happy.

Looks like all the models give us another .5-2 inches of rain beyond this current system. CMC and GFS have it mainly fall on Monday-Tuesday with it's specific disturbance while Euro focuses it more with Thursday.

If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac.

For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.