I think 99 percent of people here would "lock this in" for Christmas Eve, especially with the extended period of winter weather depicted on the 00z GFS (3-6 from "round 1", 1-3 from "round 2")
Is there any chance that the weak coastal low that initially forms trends into a light event? It looks somewhat close right now. Is there not enough cold for that to happen?
I have no idea what's going on, but it looks like it is holding less back in the Pacific Northwest, but it's also further west. Instead of two different lobes, it is one closed off low on the ND/Canada border.
The 12z Euro MIGHT be a slight improvement, but it's so weak and light that I would be surprised to see even a dusting from this if it occurred as modeled.
2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting.
My top events that I remember:
1. December 18-19, 2009 (20" of snow)
2. January 22-23 2016 (I think about 15-18" range)
3. January 3, 2022 (14-15" of snow and crazy rates and happened the day after 70 degree temperatures and I was right in the middle of the jackpot)
4. February 5-6, 2010 (I believe this one actually underperformed, still got about 12". Don't have a clear memory. Of course it didn't matter as that stretch was absolutely crazy everywhere)