Ephesians2
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Everything posted by Ephesians2
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CMC is a big jump north. It relegates significant snow north of an axis from about Roanoke to Richmond, VA. Not loving the trends on the 00z suite so far.
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Much more of a coastal look on 00z GFS.
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the initial WAA thump was lighter... At 111 total snowfall is around a foot in the Triad before the flip At 108, sleet line to NC/VA border. Taking on a more SW/NE trajectory versus 18z.
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At 99h, I am not seeing a north trend with respect to the mix line. Precip isn't quite as heavy though... we are not going to see the 2-3' Kuchera totals like last run most likely Biggest shift is it is a bit slower bringing in the precip
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87h... moderate snow over most of NC... sleet line SLIGHTLY further south than 18z
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Looking a tad bit slower at 81h
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That is good to hear ... don't care about being in the jackpot, but was thinking a 100-150 mile shift to the north as has been discussed in this thread would put the freezing rain amounts being advertised in NC right in my backyard - genuinely worrying. I like not losing power for a week with single digit temperatures.
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It's literally just a copy paste of the most bullish operational models
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That is absolutely ridiculous. I will be lucky to see half that. It generally seems local TV forecasters are much more responsible. They are more accountable and aren't the sole source of revenue
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I do NOT want to lose power for a week... if it shifts north 100-150 miles like some are saying in the main thread... I'm kind of cooked I have a feeling though ... going to stock up for long power outage just in case.
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Are you thinking ice storm potential in Southwest/Central/Southside VA into RIC? Or mostly sleet?
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
some of the individual members on the EPS were genuinely concerning. Not just mixing, but there were a few pure ice storm solutions. I think everyone in this forum would be content with warning level snow --> a couple inches of sleet --> maybe some snow on the backside -
Healthier precip shield at 84...
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Next window of opportunity?
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overheard at grocery store: > "8-10 on Friday and 10-20 on Saturday" > "they're calling it the storm of the century" Now, I wonder what AI slop weather page on Facebook came up with that
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
Compromise between GFS and UKMET/CMC would be ideal -
Maybe to an extent, but there are definitely are some misses to the South for most of the region on the individual members. Outliers though
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Not a great shift on the GEFS.
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Euro had something similar but further south Seems like a weak wave developing along the boundary from Thursdays front.
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Let's keep it right where it is ... Although there's something to be said for sleet, in that it keeps snowpack around for a while. I got 4" snow and sleet in Jan 2022, and it stuck around for two weeks. Also the last two runs of the (fantasy range) NAM have shown a weak disturbance bringing some snow to the VA/NC border and north on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro, otherwise I wouldn't be talking about it @BornAgain13
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
Last two runs of the (FANTASY RANGE) NAM have shown a disturbance to our south on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro too.
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also I have 8" on the year and you all have maybe half that, so the likely north trend = reversion to the mean
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I'd be okay with a sleetfest here in Central VA, as long as we get warning level snow first. Would be great to keep the snowpack around as long as possible.
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
We need this trend to stop soon -
"Snow likely" 5 days out is rare.
