I wasn't expecting much, a coating to an inch was about it...but at this point we might not see anything besides a few stray flurries, nws still has an advisory for 1-2 inches. Last week were were expecting 1-3 and woke up with 0.25" of sleet...
I was just looking at Maue's seasonal snowfall analysis for this season, man it is sad around here....The seasonal number's map for the southern half of CT looks like a snowfall forecast for typical big storm over the past 10 years...perspective/regression I guess
They started cutting back from yesterday, I totally expect a coating to an inch here, maybe 2 if the whole thing is further south than currently forecasted....
My forecasting this year has been spot on when using the model with the least amount of snow....at least with this one we still have 36 hours to go and a slight wiggle south would help with a couple of inches.
To be honest, I'm not sure what the historical numbers are for this region. I was transplanted here 5 years ago and my lowest has been 39" (2015/16). My lowest number (36 years) living in the mid atlantic region was 7.6" in 1997/98...I guess the buildup to this season + seeing everywhere else get snow + having plenty of cold air + plus a ton of precip all winter (in liquid form) when added to the futility equation ranks this one up pretty high despite the overall snow numbers not being the lowest ever. Maybe a 20+inch storm to bookend this season might help overall? sorry
I'm going to expect a T-1" here that vaporizes by Thursday afternoon, almost a March sun now. You are far enough NE of me that you should see 3 maybe 4 inches...
I feel like there were a few misses in that run even leading up to that last one at 200 hrs....I wonder if one of those near misses ends up getting us in the mid to short range. There is just so many moving parts that the op and ensembles may not be fully biting on yet. At least it is active and the cold air seems to be here for a bit.
Just saw the 6z Euro, the debbie in me is beginning to see this thing shift just far enough north that I end up seeing a dusting to an inch at most...Definitely not a SW CT winter this year.