Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Euro ensembles slowly gaining respect for Elsa.

Strength based GEFS bifurcation in NHC disco continues on 0Z, a western outlier headed to Northern Mexico. No member sub 1008 mb into the Atlantic, most into Florida Panhandle.

50 miles inland for a Cat 2 13 years ago, almost a week no power, roof damage in the neighborhood. HRD estimate 80 mph top sustained. Category 2. Wiped out most of the houses in an area of beach houses called Crystal Beach, destroyed my wife's grandparents beach place.

Canadian is near the Benchmark a week from Friday, via Miami, way weaker there, 1009.

Two GFS runs 97L running along Cuba has limited its strength as it then heads towards the Panhandle, but a small difference in verbatim track of the 2 runs Cuba doesn't weaken it or it it a bigger system in the Gulf. 40/60 orange now.

18Z and 0Z GFS have Florida hurricane threats just past 240 hours. The developing system should be apparent by next Monday morning in the Caribbean if the model runs are correct. I think the GFS saw what became Claudette, but developed it too quickly, for several days, before it finally got going. Would not be surprised if there is nothing in the Caribbean in a week but the GFS keeps showing development beginning in a week from the model run for several days. It (and several ensemble perturbations) are seeing something. I think we've all seen the GFS have a TC a week out for several days, and as often as not, nothing ever develops. Nothing on Op Euro,

A tornado or two is possible in the watch language, low probs for tornadoes and sig tors. I assume the trained expert at SPC, based on the best tools and guidance available to him or her, did not expect many tornadoes from a QLCS.

https://m.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/30334 DuPage fire/police radio.

Yesterday someone (I don't remember the name) Twitter posted 15 day 12Z Euro ensemble, there were two sub 1000 (980 to 1000) mb lows (almost 4% of 51!) that had crossed the Yucatan from the Caribbean. Only a couple of very weak lows on free Weathernerds ensembles in Caribbean day 10, so probably 10-15 day development. Anybody know if the monsoon trough/CAG is expected to be down there past day 10? I am between PPV models at the moment. Yes, I know 2 Euro perturbations past day 10 is not high confidence.

They got degrees, I don't, but unless it just never closes a low, the current center, as dry as a bone, (still seeing 15C T/Td spreads) dissipates and a new center develops near 90W, or I suspect the entire cone should be shifted a couple of degrees to the East. Only way a 40 or 45 knot storm will occur is if there is a center jump fairly soon. Edit, I have a BS, but not in met/atmospheric science or anything close. Engineering.

The late bloomers are usually the ones IMBY (Texas), as far West as we are, most CVs curve long before getting here. Depending on how one defines a CV storm, almost/not quite a major (a 2.75 if the SS scale was to the hundredths) Ike could be a CV, although it was well defined over Africa, it was past the CVs before being classified. Atlantic MDR storm, anyway. But most of the big ones, Alicia, Carla, Harvey, were late bloomers.

Euro seems to have seen the likely center reformation to the NE, or the landfall point of the East weighted rainstorm probably won't be far off from a Euro, a bit East of where the NHC development cone was centered. MSY to MOB

AL03 per ATCF since 1905 Z. Probably a PTC, lowest pressure has a 15C T/Td depression, several wind shifts.

Not uncommon in June and July, if it is still happening in August, than the MDR is suppressed. Earliest genuine CV storm I remember is Hurricane Bertha, formed early July. Last year we had hazy skies in Houston from SAL. That was interesting.

Western most swirls convection outflow seems to be pushing back against the shear. This may be wishcashing, there is near 0 chance Houston gets more than a sprinkle from this on the Euro/GFS and ensembles. GIF too big to load. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes17-meso1&product=vis

Big floods and possibly an inland tornado risk, but >1000 mb on any reasonable model, as a TC, it may not even waste the name Claudette. Waiting to see if Eric Webb posts another PPV Euro skew-T a day after landfall inland, but the 400 m^2/s^2 1 km helicity with almost 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE he posted on Twitter yesterday, the tornado risk could be significant. Floods as well...

Freeport as a Western bound is out, more like Port Arthur, Fourchon looks decent, in a way, it doesn't matter, near 50 knots (although diffluent flow) over the top, 92L looks like a hybrid low and most of the rain looks to fall in Mississippi and Alabama. Despite not knowing where actual center forms, ensembles strongly support the op, suggesting it doesn't matter exactly where the center forms, as long as it forms anywhere close to where the model thinks it closes.

GFS ensemble means MSLP and 250 mb winds. Suggestion of shear relaxing before landfall. But only a couple of the 30 members get even to 1000 mb.

Only in Houston can you lose power for about half the time during a 5 day period because temps dropped into the teens here and near/below zero farther North, and lose power almost a week from Hurricane Ike in 2008. All the neighborhood citrus trees died. Native to Texas Sabal mexicana palms laughed at the cold, probably why it is native, my fan palm (California fan, Mexican fan, hybrid, I don't know, $5 at Wal*Mart in 2001 because the Sun bleached the label) looked like it had died for about three months. Oh, 98F seems the magic temp, looks like they miss the house, but storms on the sea breeze have blown up in a huge way. Hard to see the fronds, but they have finally appeared.

May have a better chance back over the Atlantic than in the Gulf. One thing that caught my eye, GFS ensemble 250 mb winds start to lighten up before Gulf landfall, (down to ~15 knots) and I wonder if the Joe Bastardi theory on concave coasts and frictional convergence might not have validity. I don't see an ensemble perturbation suggesting much intensification in the Gulf. Humberto was forecast when first advisory issues on it as a TD to landfall at 40 knots, it became a TS in 3 hours and a 75 knot hurricane at landfall. But that is weeniecasting.

Edit: Mark Webber is a former Formula One driver. Eric Webb posted an obscene tornado ECMWF forecast hodograph over a day after landfall. Euro over 6 inches a lot of Louisiana first 24 hours after landfall. Most Euro ensembles are between 30 and 40 knots, or it seems a coin flip on a name.

Amateur hour, I say Freeport, TX to Fourchon, LA late Friday/early Saturday, most likely as a minimal TS. Assuming SW most swirl becomes dominant. If the less impressive swirl closer to the most lightning strikes to the NE becomes dominant, it probably shifts things. NHC now 40/80, and my Freeport to Fourchon amateur forecast was posted on Twitter before the NHC cherry area went up. I had a nice WeatherNerds gif loop showing the swirlies, but it is too large to load here. https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=765&initrange=23.250000000000:-102.000000000000:14.750000000000:-88.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

I think PTC is more likely than a TD. Looks bad now, and shear only gets worse.

I doubt the African coast lemon is an invest.