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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

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Everything posted by Ed, snow and hurricane fan

  1. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Watch area now NE of DFW, text not available yet.
  2. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Anyone know who'll be doing 18Z balloons?
  3. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    12Z NAM and FV3 are pretty unimpressive with the dryline today. Ditto 14Z HRRR Arkansas looks interesting, maybe.
  4. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Unforecast thunderstorm in Houston now, lights blinked, lost internet for a few minutes, my laptop has a battery, no problems, my Promethean board shut down and scanned its drive for errors starting back up but is good. I assume the only a few balloon sites in Mexico missing this, and a too subtle for satellite disturbance. At diurnal minimum temp.
  5. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    SETX imbyism, 12Z GFS has S winds at 850 mb, RH above 50%. Houston area usually stays capped between the warm, dry 850-700 mb flow off the Mexican plateau and morning overcast from humid air across cold shelf waters, but the cap looks breakable around here Tuesday afternoon/evening. 18Z GFS also shows almost no cap. NAM has a cap, but not the forged steel cap usually seen down here. Still looks more favorable for severe farther North, but this looks at this point more favorable than two weeks ago with the AUS/CLL area tornadoes.
  6. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Heater on this morning, rare in April. Heat in morning/AC in afternoon is more of a late Winter thing, at least at my house.
  7. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    If low clouds break, even with +70 DPs, Houston may get to 90F. As I expected, we had showers under the cap, not much rain and no thunder.
  8. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    I think they are leaning SVR T-Storm watch, 80% next 2 hours.
  9. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    My house has been removed from the marginal risk. Not surprised, positive tilt troughs rarely produce rain, let alone severe, in the Houston area. 0Z RAP sounding, just a smidge of a cap at DFW. Long but fairly straight hodo.
  10. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Not as bad as least week's event down here in SETX, although SW side of Houston had a damaging straight line wind gust that ripped a balcony off one condo and threw it through a window of another, onto the sleeping owner, who was uninjured. Strong dynamics can overcome a lot. Shelf temps are in mid 60sF off Texas, so early morning passage doesn't hurt since they'd be low clouds and fog from high dewpoint air coming over cool water limiting daytime heating. System a week ago was dynamic as dynamic gets to produce severe weather in SETX. Hailed in Houston last week, that is rare. https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/03/30/strong-winds-caused-stairwell-to-partially-collapse-at-sharpstown-condominium-complex-residents-say/
  11. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Looks like a Chevy.
  12. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    SPC 0Z HREFS still look bad by early afternoon LA/MS % STP >3 with updraft helicity overlay >75 m^2/s^2 overlay
  13. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    The requested URL /products/md/md0292.html was not found on this server. will be for tornadoes, watch likely. Edit- language makes me wonder if maybe a PDS is coming.
  14. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Storms trying to form just East of I-35. RAP 2 pm sounding just East of Waco.
  15. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    NW of DFW, watch likely, language suggests severe thunderstorm, not tornado watch. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0291.html
  16. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Early warm season season in Houston, too close to a rather cool Gulf, low clouds, fog and drizzle limit insolation. Extra few hours over land, ie, CLL, they can mix out some with daytime heating. But Houston, almost never. 1992 F-3/F-4 tornadoes were in November. Back to South, HREF Sig Tor>3 with updraft helicity overlay looks bad for Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow.
  17. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Visiting from Texas thread, HREF looks sort of bad here from I-35 from Austin to DFW area and E (along and N of a WSW to ENE line from AUS to CLL), but the 5 pm STP>3 with updraft helicities for Louisiana and Mississippi looks quite bad. High Risk tomorrow?
  18. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    HREF seems to support my idea for Texas this afternoon. Best tornado chances I-35 from DFW area to Austin, along and North of a WSW-ENE line from AUS to CLL. Some spinners possible HOU area itself with morning lines. Tomorrow's Louisiana/Mississippi STP with updraft helicities overlain is absolutely scary.
  19. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    That was an early cool season outbreak, when the Gulf was warm and onshore winds didn't guarantee low clouds, fog and drizzle. IIRC. the shear that day was also extreme. Spring, the cap rarely breaks this close to the coast in the open warm sector. Our storms will be late tonight on the actual front, if I had to guess. CLL and UTS are far enough inland, there may be enough breaks in the clouds.
  20. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    LCLs will be quite low here around Houston, little T/Td spread, but for that same reason instability will be limited. Just perusing the guidance, Houston probably should not be in an enhanced risk, I think storms only on the actual front, which, of course, could still be severe, but the supercells look I-35 and East from about Austin to I-20. I'm looking to see if clouds mix out NW of here, they rarely do in Houston proper, with cool shelf waters the low clouds rarely burn off in March. AUS, ACT and CLL might be different. Large tornadoes are rare enough this far South I doubt schools will release early in the area of greatest tornado risk. (Waco 1953 tornado shows big tornadoes not impossible down here, just not frequent)
  21. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Not my only pet peeve. Even down at 30N daylight savings time in late October means kids walking to the bus stop at night, I know a kid about 15 years ago hit by the bus. End it altogether, don't make it permanent.
  22. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    If there had been satellites then, 1933 might have easily matched 2005.
  23. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Random question, early 1980s people in NY and NE put on snow tires in November or December and took them off in March or April, you could tell who hadn't put on warm weather tires because the tires were louder. In 40 years, have they invented all season tires?
  24. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    GFS would be almost a tenth freezing rain around Houston, from sunset to almost midnight. Not sure how much would stick to roads, TXDoT is spraying CaCl2 solution even here, but we do have enough creeks and bayous, even in Houston, there might be an untreated overpass. I'd cancel school on principal, and let us out early in case the change happens a touch earlier. But not happening. 1 winter day, 17 flood days in schools in Houston area since 2015. Harvey was 10 days, 2 weeks, on its own. Imelda was a flood day, one of the Greek storms (Beta?) was a flood day. Ice and no school, pretty rare.
  25. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Hoping the models showing light right w/ temps hitting freezing around 3 pm would get my Houston area district to cancel school. I didn't think light rain on city streets right at freezing the day after 70F weather would do anything in the metro area (College Station and maybe even Conroe, different story) but I was hoping it would trigger cancelled school. Stuck at 40F with intermittent rain last few hours, 3 km NAM picks up on the city, 7-8 pm quick change to freezing rain doesn't happen at all in central Harris county. Trace. Aggie Land flips this afternoon ~ 2-ish on model, bouncing 33-34F, seems reasonable, the county road bridges there could get tricky, but I doubt they really needed to cancel school. But I doubt the students are complaining. Austin went over to light ice this morning, so cancelling school there, even for a few hundredths, made sense.
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