Ed, snow and hurricane fan

OT- is there a large fire somewhere near Austin? Seeing something that looks like a stationary point source. Thought it was a new T-storm at first///

Anyone else hate new NWS public radar format?

Sun breaking out in Houston, and a couple of convergence zones seem apparent. Down here, CAP forecast to produce 'squegee line' of showers/storms with actual front, UTS/CLL edge of Marginal.

Wednesday East Texas and Thursday Louisiana and Mississippi look interesting.

0°C (32 F°) at IAH Houston, I'm halfway between IAH and DWH, it is misting/drizzle, but my car is just wet, not icy. Not yet, anyway. Still some areas of packed sleet on street that weren't in direct sunlight.

San Antonio Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist 24°F -4°C

Witness that almost all the 'snow' in Houston after the sleet was actually frozen drizzle, which floats down like snow. I watched. Almost two days no power, but solid sleet pack kept my beer plenty cold. Benefit of sleet over snow, pavement patches appeared late afternoon, but most suburban streets still white with what I, a former Massapequa resident, could imagine was packed snow. 1989, I did see snow on suburban streets in Dallas survive several days, I have never seen any frozen precip in Houston not gone inside 6 hours. .05 to .10 inches freezing drizzle (3k and 12k NAM) before about 10 am tomorrow in Houston, Dallas snow ratios with marginal temps in dendritic growth zone look horrible, 5:1, maybe, but two Winter Storm Warnings just over 2 days apart in Texas 2 biggest cities?

Houston never really saw snow round 1. Sleet turned to small particles of ice, basically frozen drizzle, that sort of looked like snow, it didn't come down very fast, but didn't accumulate much. OTOH, although some local back streets melted in sunny spots to pavement, there were still hard packed white spots on the streets at sundown. I was watching TV before the blackout, people nearby reporting snow with SPC 850 mb of +4, and wondered. Newest NAM, just enough freezing drizzle tonight before dawn on already cold, and in some places, still ice packed streets, to make for an interesting commute.

Twitter, barely, on cell phone, first power and internet in a while.

Pretty sure what people not far from here were calling snow (when 850 mb temps were well above freezing) is actually freezing drizzle that managed to freeze before reaching the ground. It sort of looks like snow, it doesn't fall as fast as rain, but it is small frozen droplets. 3 km NAM suggests total (from 0Z) right about half an inch liquid equivalent.

Freezing rain is now snizzle. Not exactly snowflakes, but little frozen white things that are slowly drifting down. Near I-45 and BW8 North side of Houston. Internet says that palm can handle teens and 20 hours below freezing, so it is probably going to die.

Coming down hard now, must be some sleet mixed in because I can hear it, but staring at windshield, still mostly liquid. Ice is getting thicker. Sidewalk still just wet.

Feels like rain or drizzle, but my car is icing up. Local Houston news reporting snow nearby, which makes little sense looking at 850 mb temps by SPC mesoanalysis 4C in NW Harris County. Houston mailing address, but can't vote in elections, ~5 miles West of IAH airport. (My wife for reference picture below) 18Z Euro, per KHOU weather, up to six inches at Hobby Airport (the original airport, the LaGuardia to JFK) South of downtown, more than DFW. 4F here Tuesday morning if verifies will be coldest temp here ever recorded. I delivered the Daily News in Massapequa Winter 76-77, cold doesn't scare me, but will kill my citrus and will probably kill my palm trees. Dead 30 foot palm trees probably cost money to remove.

Feels like light rain/drizzle Houston area (Houston mail address, don't vote in city elections) about 5 miles West of I-45 and a couple miles North of Beltway 8, (not far from FM 1960, if anyone knows the area) but it is freezing on the car. Sidewalk just wet. TV suggests Northwest suburbs switching to snow faster than modeled, which makes no sense based on SPC mesoanalysis 850 mb temps.

32°F at DWH, light rain falling, IAH still 35°F. SGR reporting snow and 34°F, but 850s are well above freezing by SPC mesoanalysis, so I suspect an ASOS issue. Edit- light rain, no outdoor station, about halfway between DWH and IAH.

3 km 18Z NAM has more precip than 12 km NAM for Houston by a couple of tenths, which only matters in Winter. Looking at NCEP QPF, I think 3 km is happier for Dallas as well. Not that happy. But happier. I think they still ratio 5 inches.

18Z GFS midweek storm might have significant sleet or ice and not that much snow...

Can a red tagger who does top down forecasting visit the Texas subforum on the mid-West forum. 850 mb just above freezing and surface temps well below would seem to suggest mostly sleet on Euro for Houston, but the saturated level above the warm nose doesn't seem cold enough from what I heard for dendrites, and I am wondering if melted snowflakes required for sleet. Enough QPF to be interesting even as sleet, but an inch of freezing rain would cripple any city, let alone one in the South that is 3 years removed from last freezing rain disaster. (TXDOT pretreated highway overpasses and cloverleaf interchanges with CaCl2 brine solution, but heavy showers not well forecast just before the icing event washed it from the major highway flyovers, or they became skating rinks despite the best efforts). OT- I followed Direct Energy's advice and called my pipes stupid.

Does any PPV site have Euro ice/sleet/snow products? I'm not sure how they differentiate between sleet and freezing rain anyway, but am curious as to whether Euro has significant ice SETX. About a decade ago I spotted freezing drizzle over the snow HGX forecast, the NY subforum has red taggers who explained top down forecasting, I think down here the mets may have just looked at 540 thickness and 850 temps and said snow, but I wish a red tagger from a Northern forum could look at the soundings, because snow or freezing drizzle somehow seems simpler than sleet or freezing rain.

Looking at soundings on Euro, 850s and College Station support snow, QPF suggests more than drizzle, but temps are not cold enough in the saturated layer for dendrites, could be serious icing. Similar in Houston, except 850 temps don't quite support snow.

Euro relatively dry with DFW, ratios would still support ballpark 5 inches. Big Cities, I-35 Waco to San Marcos look like the winners. DFW may just be too far North for the big action. 12km NAM should be getting in range, looking at NYC subforum, NAM is having a good Winter up there and is even drier for DFW. GFS and Euro have a decent discrepancy on the amount of QPF in Houston Sunday night/Monday morning, almost half an inch. NAM splitting the difference.

Direct Energy said we should properly insult our pipes. OT, verbatim GFS Wednesday starts with freezing rain in Houston before a quick change to rain, by the time heavy rain arrives it would near 40F, but 5 days out, maybe it turns out to be more than just a hundredth between changeover. skew-Ts in Winter, didn't think I'd do that much.

Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system. Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle. 5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps. I wonder how many buildings in DFW built for a total 1.5 or higher liquid equivalent snow weight on their roofs. I remember, after we moved to Texas, a supermarket roof collapsing back in Massapequa because of a couple of consecutive heavy snows. 8 lbs/square foot, a 1.5 inch liquid equivalent snowpack...

I don't know how it helps, but per Direct Energy's precautions, I told my pipes they are stupid.

EWX- This is an unprecedented week of weather for South-Central Texas. Our collective group of meteorologists at our offices can not remember a time where we had 4 potential winter weather events across our County Warning Area in one week.