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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

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Everything posted by Ed, snow and hurricane fan

  1. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    The truck tire has a nasty looking crack in it, although new convection may be trying to fix it.
  2. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    SHIPS annular index is 45, about halfway between not annular and annular. It sort of looks annular. Better informed people, annular or not?
  3. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    If, as GFS most runs and about half the ensembles, have a TC in the Gulf in 8 or 9 days, trough position only means is it Texas/Mexico, Louisiana/Mississippi, or Alabama/Florida? Little escapes the Gulf. Northeast US, late September (1038), late October (Sandy), just off top of my head, and I am sure as the pattern transitions to Autumn, steering will be constantly changing. Oh, empirical MJO prediction has been fairly good this year, Florida could have an interesting October from Caribbean systems,.
  4. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Won't be a thing in the tropics to discuss in a week. Horrid.
  5. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    While Fujiwara refers to tropical systems, I think it is driven by mid level lows close enough to influence each other. I could be wrong.
  6. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Cocodrie is quite close to Fourchon. By water, not by car. I was high on pressure and low on winds. I think I was low Cat 4.
  7. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    IMBYism, I can think of 2 hurricanes in 100+ years that hit Texas in October. The Equinox is a switch. We get a 'real' cold front a week either side, the first real Autumn cold front. (We get little dewpoint/windshift fronts all Summer, I'm talking a front ordinary people notice). But 6Z/12Z GFS system is a real concern locally, today's Sept 14/17 prediction is 1-4 days after Ike landfall date and before Equinox. A bullet to be dodged. #91L looks pretty meh, but even a TD's rains near Ida's path is obviously bad.
  8. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
  9. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    NWS Upton deleted the tweet, but...
  10. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Rain estimates from radar aren't hail contaminated. In fact, down here (Houston), for TCs, they put 88Ds in 'tropical ZR mode', not sure if rain now would still be in that form, but tropical system rains are underestimated by radar in normal mode.
  11. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    That is Houston 2001 Allison level rainfall rates. Insane,
  12. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    6Z GEFS, a few outliers comes close to ECUSA, and Bermuda is clearly as risk in 8 or 9 days. This may not be a pure 'fish' storm. Students back from lunch in 2 minutes
  13. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    The Bayou Bouef I know of in Louisiana outlets near Morgan City, so this isn't a metro New Orleans levee failure unless there is more than one of those
  14. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Makes sense now. Houston isn't adjacent to a lake open to the ocean.
  15. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    It could be rain, but the second floor window flooding rescues in Houston/Harvey didn't start the first day with the first foot of rain. Not claiming to be any kind of expert in rainfall runoff, but roof top rescues from a foot of rain, that doesn't seem likely in fairly flat terrain.
  16. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    I think that is where the memorable footage of a driver driving into the water and a reporter rushing in to help him was, near the I-10/610 split. I've been to New Orleans and Venice enough to know that area. That video was on TV before people outside NOLA knew about the flooding in the city. I don't know if that is rainwater flooding alone, or there has been a flood control/levee breach. But that area was where the first indication New Orleans wasn't fine, as reported by reporters staying in the French Quarter.
  17. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    People on Twitter are making him mad. I suspect he gets a new account, assuming he lives, and I am assuming he does.
  18. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Samaras was always very careful, if Discovery hadn't replaced the tornado chasing show for stupid shows about convicts and their boy/girlfriends outside and 90 day fiancees and gold miners, he'd have still had his truck, not some 90 horsepower little Chevy, and would be alive today
  19. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    I'm talking electrical transmission towers, not broadcast towers. I spent 2 weeks in a Holiday Inn in the French Quarter in 2000, I worked in New Iberia but was covering for an engineer going on vacation whose then died. I worked in an office in the Shell building. I was working for Halliburton then. My last trip to NOLA was pre-Katrina with my wife for a casino/drinking long weekend.
  20. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Transmission tower has collapsed, power lines to city down in the Mississippi river. I don't know if these are the very tall towers one can see from near the French Quarter crossing the river.
  21. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
  22. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Nobody deserves to die for stupidity, even if it is Clorox in the gene pool.
  23. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Oil companies built canals in the swamplands to get drilling barges in, that messed up the fresh water/sea water mix. The nutria, brought for fur, eats marsh grasses, and the logical predator to keep them in check, the alligator, doesn't seem to have a taste for nutria. A lot of 'land' South of NOLA is open water, not even swamp. One reason Ida is slow to spin down just inland.
  24. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    South Louisiana is unnatural, and while the reasons were good, the unexpected affects, bad. The Mississippi changes its main channel to the Gulf every few hundred years. It would have about a century ago but they built a structure to limit flow down the Atchafalaya, where the river was about to switch to, from the main channel to protect shipping in BTR and MSY/NOLA. They also build many flood levees. Now each year, during Spring rain and snowmelt, sediment gets carried to the very tip of the river to extend the delta, and soft sediment compacting a cm or more a year are not getting new sediment. Reduced annual flow, but at a cost. Similar for Galliano and Golden Meadow, Bayou Lafourche is a distributary of the Mississippi, a flood control structure was built to stop annual floods along the bayou. Those towns don't flood anymore, which means new sediment doesn't keep ground levels even as the soft sediment beneath compacts.
  25. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Google usually helps. GPM sounds like a unit of speed or fluid flow, not altitude. Oh, 954 mb, the ADT was w/i 1 mb of interpolated plane pressure.
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