Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Dallas would like the GFS better for the two storms, assuming one likes snow. Houston would like the Euro better for QPF down here, mid week storm Euro is, literally, one degree Celsius too warm for the famous once a decade Houston big highway cloverleaf ramps skating party. Not a lot of QPF mid-week, but a touch colder, just a dab'll do ya. I think, looking at Euro and GFS, Houston has very little freezing rain Monday, a change from rain to sleet and graupel. Wondering if some snow flakes might survive the slight warm nose. Sleet or snow, once you have half an inch, the pictures look very similar.

Born in NYC, raised on Long Island, Grandma now buried in Marshfield, but lived across from North Quincy T, saw as many Yankee games at Fenway, maybe more, than Yankee Stadium (my late Dad didn't like going to the Bronx) In Texas 40 years... Former NY-er and former unpopular poster. Blizzard of 1978 my favorite storm. (5 days no school St. Martin of Tours, Amityville, NY) Any red taggers want to visit Texas thread for a once every two decade Winter event and give expert opinion?

Former NY-er and former unpopular poster. Blizzard of 1978 my favorite storm. Any red taggers want to visit Texas thread for a once every two decade Winter event and give expert opinion.

I took my document camera home. My school district doesn't observe Presidents' Day but is giving teachers and students tomorrow off. It is hard to teach math w/o a document camera and I can see my school insisting on a remote day Monday. We were told to bring our computers and materials home.

Houston AFD mentions possibility of not being able to travel from late Sunday into Tuesday. Looking at models, hard to tell if it will be rain, and for how long. 850 mb temps drop pretty quickly Monday morning, so I suspect a rain to sleet to snow event. QPF varies, Euro is over 3/4 inches. GFS a little less, both close on surface temps at the start around 6Z Monday Dallas people will hate 18Z QPF. But ratios should be great.

5 dead at least. The truck drivers who piled in looked like they were going the speed limit. This was well forecast by FWD, I suspect the highway information signs had messages about driving on ice. And people were still driving the speed limit.

Euro 850s are barely above freezing, I no longer have a good PPV model page since WeatherBell jacked my rates, I'd love to see Monday skew-Ts to see how much of the forecast 0.8 inches is sleet or freezing rain in Houston. Half an inch liquid DFW, all snow and 850 mb below -10°C and well below freezing surface, that should fluff well over 10:1.

GFS suggests there is more coming after Monday

Canadian posting is weenie. But my urban school district doesn't celebrate Presidents' Day, and I want the day off near Houston.

GFS and Euro, off and on between runs, sleet or freezing rain Monday late or Tuesday early in Houston. Late Monday/Tuesday could be a day off school...

Mid Atlantic forum poster, IIRC, during intense snowstorms he took walks to experience them up close and personal. Name was 'Jeb', obviously.

Even the linked model data shows very low initial dewpoints and evaporative cooling when precip starts

I think he is alive. He was about 30 when I moved.

Dr. Frank Field was an eye doctor, not a met doctor, but the Army did send him for a degree in met during WW2. I was in his backyard in Nassau Shores, mid 1970s, he had a pit bull which tried to copulate with my leg. Storm Field should still be alive...

IIRC, my favorite storm of all time, 5 days no school, February 1978, was technically a Miller B, but, again, from memory, it was enhanced by mid level energy that pushed an Arctic front through NYC area as the coastal was developing off the Carolinas. I moved from Massapequa 2 years later. Now big storms are nostalgia.

LGA 31G41 ISP 23G38

Moved Massapequa, NY 11758 to Dallas just after the Blizzard of 1978. Dallas at least gets a dusting almost every Winter, Houston, last snow was a dusting in 2017. One thing, one doesn't know what a real severe thunderstorm is living on Long Island.

I am now bracketed between snow reports at DWH and IAH, but all I can feel is sleet, not even 'slow raindrops' which might be a not quite completely melted snowflake clumps.

Can't tell in the streetlights if there is any snow, but I can hear and feel on my car roof some sleet, maybe 10 miles SE DWH and 5 miles West of IAH. At 30.00001N, 29.9999N is a 15 second walk from my front door.

Rare post, but Thanksgiving 1993 Dallas, Leon Lett fumble game in Dallas, that looked like snow on TV but was 90% sleet, and a lot of thunder and lightning. Wrong forum, but sleet can be fun, especially thunder sleet.

Rare poster, not popular, I am at work but you can check model initialization now at balloon sounding sites or how they have performed in near term of SPC mesoanalysis page (based off a model, but I assume reasonably accurate). Are 12Z NAMs well initialized? How are they at 3 hours? Check models at this point before hugging. Players all on the field.