Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Euro is showing 40 knot plus gusts for much of Connecticut after landfall, that would mean at least some power outages.

The STR that kept Grace in Mexico in full effect, Sunday-Thursday, solid sea breeze thunderstorm action every day, even had one produce a tropical funnel that reaches the ground in the NW suburbs of Houston and took down power poles. Forecast near 100F in Houston next several days. But, Gulf may get interesting next weekend, a few ECENS runs in a row. GEFS also showing some action. Per Weather Twitter, a rare August Central American Gyre is forecast to develop, and trigger one or more tropical cyclones in either/both Caribbean and East Coast.

12Z ECENS from WeatherNerds says the Gulf is exciting next week.

Watching the loops, it has been trying to close on eye on visible all day and coming close, but not really getting it done. Recon should be in shortly, I wonder if they will actually find a hurricane or a 55 or 60 knot storm.

You watch typhoon chasing videos from Taiwan or the Japanese islands, power often does not go out and building suffer little damage. If a typhoon is going to hit every 2 or 3 years, the millions of dollars per mile to bury power cables makes sense. For a once every 25 year tropical cyclone event in New England, it is harder to justify. That was the thinking behind not improving the Texas power grid after weaknesses became obvious in a fairly mild cold snap in 2011, the big February freeze was a once every 3 or 4 decade event. I assume the wind turbines will be winterized as they are elsewhere in America, and natural gas storage will increase, since cold weather increases the demand for gas for both home heating and power generation. But areas where extreme events are rare, someone makes a risk/reward calculation. In February, the risk turned out to be greater than the reward of money saved.

I might have been Tomer Burg (sp?) who tweeted something. Tagged Dr. Papin. A Central American Gyre is rare in August, but he said several models showed one developing, with cyclones triggered in both the East Pac and Caribbean, Euro ensembles from 0Z seem to support that,

Not an expert, but between no models showing Cat 2 and 12 to 24 hours over sub 26C water, no. Probably not.

LILCO had power back in 2 days after Belle.

14 years in Massapequa, the rest of my life in Texas, a week plus no power each hurricane, rolling blackouts for a once every 30 year cold spell (it is rare, but people know we'll have those cold spells), Long Island is not as third world as we are. Wind farms in Iowa work in Winter, and as gas turbines make most of the electricity, and most Texans in cold weather use natural gas heat, creating shortages, well, 3 days below freezing and half of those 3 days w/o power, we're behind. Texas Ed M.

Weird quadrant for the strongest winds. Plane has not changed altitude per TT

I got a day off for Hurricane Laura last year, and we had only breezy showers. The day off after Beta for flooding, that was real. I teach Algebra II...

Grew up in Massapequa NY, was there for Hurricane Belle, spent some Summers in North Quincy with my Grandma, $5 bleachers for the Red Sox (switch to Kenmore Square train at Park Street), NY forum doesn't like slight shift East w/ 18Z models, well, oh, 2 different 2 week vacations in Harwichport. Or, unless completely OTS, I can't lose. In Texas, the ridge driving Grace into Mexico, today was first day w/ no sea breeze storms, barely any flat cumulus. I'm not as fond of no electricity for 5 or 10 days as I was as a kid.

I was in the Navy and didn't even know Gloria happened until later, but I was in Nassau Shores, Massapequa for 1976 75 mph Hurricane Belle, and that killed electricity for 2 days and ruined the food in the fridge, and uprooted trees. Weeping willows especially. If not cut up, they lived on their sides. We evacuated to North Massapequa, friends from my Dad's job, the Harkins. They had cable, was about to see an R rated movie on HBO when the power went out. First time I'd ever seen cable.

Sounds like last 4 days of the sea breeze (and outflow boundaries from SB storms colliding) have triggered more active weather in SETX than Fred did on the Florida peninsula.

HWRF has seemed to have a high bias. GFS shear at this point is under 4 m/s, about 10 mph. I think it is possible.

NVM. Those are 08D/Henri per 12Z GEFS. Per Twitter, COVID will not stop iCyclone chasing in Mexico.

Looking at 1004 mb low on govt. GEFS site, a lot of clustering for 5 days away. All the models seem locked in on Mexico now. OT- at 5 days, random lows start appearing off the SE USA. Could be 08L, but nothing on 6Z GEFS from TT shows any members getting that far SW. Maybe someone was right, and the Northern piece of what was 95L tries to develop.

We've been to the same Dead show? The odds in a country of 300 million people... OT- HWRF has a lot of company on the forecast track somewhere from the Rio Grande down to Veracruz, but the intensity is a lot higher than any model except NNIC, which is a consensus model, and HWRF is one of the inputs. The inputs to NNIC include intensity forecasts from 4 deterministic intensity models (HWFI, AVNI, DSHP, LGEM) and 4 other predictors.The model input includes 5 predictors as follows:(1) the mean intensity from the 4 models,(2)-(5) The deviation of each model from the mean.The four other inputs include the following:(6) The previous 12 hr intensity change (t=0 minus t=-12h max wind)(7) The latitude along the OFCI track(8) The SST along the OFCI track,(9) The 850-200 hPa shear along the OFCI track

More unsupported fun and frolics from the HWRF...

Jammed the Beatle's 'Hey Jude', and every drum was miked to a different speaker, the drums circled the auditorium. Opened with 'Hell in a Bucket', that was, I think, the latest album.

Looking at Tropical Tidbits recon vs satellite loop, they have not sampled the highest winds yet. I think this could make a run at minimal Cat 1 before landfall.

St. Patrick's Day, 1988, the Dead at the Kaiser in Oakland. I can neither confirm nor deny mind altering substances ingested. Not much more than a year later, the 880 freeway, how we got from Alameda to Berkeley, collapsed in an earthquake.

17N, 68W, there is a very weak closed low, 1011 mb. Strongest winds (near TS at flight level) well removed Northeast in the convection.

Fracking and salt water disposal can cause small earthquakes, generally 10,000 to 100,000 times weaker than the Haiti earthquake. (Log scale). I think Haiti was about 12 km below the surface, far deeper than the phreatic water zone. Changes in tides or sea level pressure, who knows if that might move them a few days earlier, but the Caribbean plate is volcanically active in the Lesser Antilles, and seismically active in the Greater Antilles.

If one just looks as Euro ensemble tracks, it looks scary Mexico to Louisiana, but only about 10 perturbations are below 1000 mb, or ensembles support the op.