Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Amateur guess better sampling of downstream heights, which will affect course of upstream features.

Internet? Back in the 1970s, big NYC blackout (a lot of arson) in the Summer, our chimney antenna was picking up Rhode Island and Philadelphia TV stations.

I read somewhere 18Z is better than 6Z runs because more planes in the air, more ACCARS (they used to call it that anyway) ingested.

Is 'WOR' shorthand for ORH?

000 NOUS42 KNHC 251930 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0230 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04 C. 26/1900Z (CHANGED) D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W. E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ WJM NNNN https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

First responders administer it to unconscious people where a GFS overdose is suspected. GFS antagonist.

AccuWeather forecaster on 1010 WINS radio in NYC said 3 to 18 inches. I think NYC was about 18 inches, we were way over, and New England was insane, of course. Grandma, buried in Marshfield, lived in North Quincy. I vaguely remember a March (April?) snow on Long Island that was rain in BOS because it was so man bite dog, although I think 1888 was bigger NYC than BOS. JoeForAlb just posted this in NYC forum (2 tabs for the big ones)

I don't remember when Luna was, but the Bronys had a party for that one. That I remember. Like people meme'd Elsa this past Summer.

What happened to the FIM, a model based off GFS initialization using GFS physics but with a hexagonal grid? I weenied to that 5 or 8 years ago during hurricane seasons.

How many balloons get released 1000 miles offshore?

People noting the ridge over the Pacific and its orientation will influence later events. Just looking at 500 mb GFS forecast, that ridge now W of Oregon will influence what happens. Cut off to the West of that will influence that ridge, which will influence what happens downstream

For a storm of this potential impact, flying a G-IV or even a mid altitude WC-130J mission to gather data over the East Pac might be a good thing.

I just remember when he arrived at WCVB. Grandma lived in North Quincy. I visited a lot. WCVB had a very attractive weekend or morning anchor, last name McGrath. I was 15... Found a pic. Remember, I was only 15

Harvey Leonard was 1 year too late to WCVB for 1978. He must be in his 70s now.

12Z Euro verbatim is about 5F for the mother of all ice storms for Houston, just about there for Austin (near freezing and warmer 850s), and has snow in DFW next weekend. GFS a bit warmer. Weenie wishing a global at 5 days is too warm, or IMBY/Houston is probably a cold rain. But even GFS suggesting Winter fun in North Texas.

OT- I watch reruns of 'Law & Order' from the 90s and 00s. Filmed on location NYC. Half the time, actual snow or snow on the ground in Manhattan. That did not happen in the 1970s when I lived outside NYC, and it doesn't happen now. Is there a grand cycle, some multi-decadal oscillation, or bad decades for snow?

Galveston, on the coast, has done a couple of 3-6 inch snows the last 22 years, but Houston hasn't done much over an inch.

Snow in Houston is more a once or twice a decade thing, if you count dustings. Ice storms (well, freezing drizzle) is more common. If you watched TV of the Colleyville (near Dallas) synagogue hostage situation, you might have seen the snow flurries there. 1970s, I don't know about New England, but Long Island, a few notable exceptions like 1978, almost every cold spell ended with snow changing to rain NYC and points East. R/S line seems to live just North of the Bronx every storm.

There is, or at least was, an OKX met that posted in the NYC forum, but I suspect it isn't good form to work for NHC or SPC and post on a weather forum.

Papin was a regular as a doctoral candidate.

I don't remember the date of the storm last year, but in NYC subforum, HRRR was far too cold for a system that was predicted to stay snow and went to sleet and rain. In related news, Dr. Papin, who used to post on AmWx, posting about ice threat in the Deep South.

14 years ago no tropical cyclone had ever been as far N and E as the Turks and Caicos, and then make landfall in Texas. Analogs are like records, right, made to be broken?

The lowest Euro ensemble mean pressure looks displaced someone East of where I'd eyeball the center point of the individual lows, I think some of the lows that hug the coast may be stronger (baroclinicity between CAD and warm oceans?) and displaces the lowest mean pressure from the average location of the ensemble lows.

Ice on the South Shore of LI is so rare, I am pretty sure I've seen more ice storms in Houston in 20 years than Massapequa in 14. Need a perfect wind direction. DFW can do ice w/o an airmass change over 40F prior day, clouds and low DP are magic.

I don't think I can remember a single big Upstate NY that wasn't LES or w/ LES help. Cities up there don't have much orography and they're too far from the Atlantic for significant ocean effect.