Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I can see the 'shouldn't have been named' argument for Odette, but based on late visible yesterday, it was a TC. That it is sheared and exposed now doesn't change how it looked when NHC started advisories last night.

CPC's empirical wave propagation model, is apparently not sophisticated but has been doing a decent job all season of suggesting times of activity and the lack thereof, is suggesting a busy first half of October, systems that develop that time of year have a hard time not affecting land. Been a very active season, 95L storm will be Peter soon, almost every part of the Atlantic and Gulf coast has seen at least some affects of tropical or post-tropical systems, including a high end Cat 4, not sure what people would have done with some of the 1980s seasons. 1992 would have been a snoozer, except Andrew. I guess a season is a bust if we don't use the entire alphabet.

Pretty sure I see clear low cloud movement from W to E, if Odette is a tropical cyclone with multiple exposed LLCs...

The Texas season is winding down. We get the first real cold front (actual temp drop of 10F or more, not just a slight DP drop and wind shift) on the Equinox, at least latest forecast, and plus or minus a week is on schedule. The Westerlies have returned. It'll be hard to get us. 1940s October Cat 2 near Freeport (Nicholas area) and 1989 October half-cane Jerry means it isn't impossible, just it is rather unlikely

I think despite a not super favorable MJO at peak season, with Nicholas and #95L (looking decent), it hasn't been dead. EWP is apparently rather simple, but using it since July, it offers useful hints. It has been fairly consistent, it was suggesting in August that mid-September might be a bit slow (certainly not season cancel slow), and it has been showing October, ever since it forecast that far, as turning favorable. October is Caribbean season, often big ones, like Mitch and Opal, and if they get out of the Caribbean, they are often big time US weather-makers.

Per KPRC story, only gas station in the area (Matagorda) w/ electricity, and they have some of their own issues. Big airport nearby, 28 G38, breezy here with a bit of rain, wind did some dead frond trimming on the palm tree, which isn't a bad thing, but as close as the Heights, inside I-610 loop, some power outages. I see no obvious damage in my neighborhood.

Might give it time to become a hurricane, but all the heavy rains will be E of metro Houston. Been watching the radar. IMBY may not get much more rain.

HRRR and 18Z 3 km NAM, Houston metro should miss heaviest rains, which seems consistent w/ radar.

Houston area ISDs will not repeat the Imelda students on top of desks in floods, no school tomorrow!!! Whoop!!!!!

Recon center SW of the main convection. 1009 mb, not in a hurry to get organized. HWRF and HMON show slow intensification, both ballpark 990 mb and 50 knots. Decent clustering on track.

Jack Sillin on Twitter noted the Euro forecast PWs over 4 inches are probably not realistic, unrealistic atmospheric moisture, unrealistic QPF. Not that 'a mere' 10 to 15 inches is a picnic.

Recon seems to suggest more than 1 LLC. I assume they'll consolidate under the storms, but it can't get too strong before it does.

Watched Dr. Cowans video, shear should keep this from doing, at best, minimal Cat 1 winds. But TCs w/o big winds (here in Houston) like Harvey, Imelda and Beta have caused issues. GFS wouldn't be as bad as any of those, but might cancel school Tuesday. No snow days down here (we had a week of icy, cold and rolling blackout days in February), so it is usually rain days, and the three named storms all cancelled at least a day of school, Harvey, 2 full weeks/10 days. As did Ike, but I was an oilfield engineer then.

Does Miami have to take a Cat 5 and NYC a 1938 style storm or the season is a disappointment? I think Ida has already made this a significant season, myself.

Looking at the Tropical Tidbits loop (Gulf, 94L centered jumps around), and wonder where the center forms, if it does. Modelling on Ida shifted completely once the models had an actual center to work with. Centers forms a bit E of where expected, land interaction is suddenly less and more time over water on the way to Louisiana. Not an amateur forecast, just speculation.

Tropics are dead. Season cancel.

Anybody got the past 10 day Euro ensembles for 93L?

Looks like more street and urban flooding now than yesterday's run, where the big QPF bullseye was inland between HOU and San Antonio. I wonder when the two cherries get invest tagged, the start of the rain from the Gulf system is only a little over 2 days away, although winds don't seem an issue.

Tropical Tidbits updates faster than AccuWx PPV, but rainfall graphics aren't free. Still, the speed of that little system from 72 hours to 96 hours suggests serious rain issues.

Closer to my house, still not sure based on that the system coming into the Gulf will have a name, but that looks like quite the onshore flow into SETX, where we haven't had a serious tropical wind storm in 13 years, but have had rain issues with Harvey, Imelda and Beta. Dropped WxBell when they raised prices, PPV AccuWx is later than other PPV models services, but cheap.

I think what might be future 93L or 94L (nice Africa wave also), per GFS, almost (not quite) becomes a TD before landfall a bit South of the border. Heavy rain confined to the immediate coast. By immediate, I mean Houston for the entire tropical wave or tropical depression landfall is about 2 inches over several days. Euro still has serious rain, but shifted to E Texas and Louisiana. A few storm total bullseyes over a foot. It doesn't quite get to a depression either. Main issue is rains in Ida areas. 60% 5 day orange now. GaWX wave is a 50/70 cherry. Edit to add HPC QPF

Best I could find. https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/cabo-san-lucas/231823/weather-radar/231823

Euro system is a foot of rain in 4 days for Houston, with an area between here and San Antonio on/near I-10, maybe Columbus or Shiner, exceeding 16 inches. Less than the 2016 Tax Day or 2015 Memorial Day floods, but rivers would probably flood. Enough to keep an eye on.

Eye doesn't look good at the moment on satellite, but it is still closed per Cabo radar, and the Northern eyewall is pulsing w/ cold cloud tops. He may get some eye.

A lot of ECENS like 91L to weakly develop before heading into the Atlantic. Although weaker than 1000 mb, not sure it ever gets a name. Intensity plots also suggest it is not named. The W Carib -> Gulf system GFS had 4 days ago persistently now hugs the South American coast into Central America, and doesn't even make the S BoC with enough time for a spinup before Mexico. MJO looks unfavorable. Not to jinx anything, but with the exception of once every 50 year Jerry type minimal October canes, it doesn't look to become favorable before mean Westerlies have returned. Equinox, the end of the Texas season, passes before anything gets near. October looks interesting on EWP, which has been pretty good all Summer, stuff from the Caribbean may visit the Northern Gulf and Florida in October I'll miss any local excitement this year, but I also keep my electricity.