Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I wouldn't get too confident on anything until Euro and GFS converge. Globals not known for low level temp resolution, either, but it seems like mesoscale models aren't really good outside 48 hours, or Tuesday earliest to get *super* excited.

I actually have no idea how to guess sleet over freezing rain, but cool 850s and subfreezing 925, I'm guessing sleet.

Looking at 12Z GFS 925 mb temps, DFW would get half the frozen as sleet, not ice. Sleet on ice bad for driving, but powerlines wouldn't be coming down.

Houston lost our ice storm, but with GFS and Euro having a pretty serious ice or sleet storm, they have to start putting out alerts. The question is how much is freezing rain, (enough for trees on powerlines) and how much sleet. My Mom and two sisters (Mom lives with 1) in Bedford have underground power cables, a good thing, but worst case, mostly freezing liquid and an inch, major trunk lines would go down and even underground neighborhood power doesn't protect against that.

My Grandma is buried in Marshfield. She was from there. I'm only 1/8th English (her father was a Lane, her mother was sailed from Galway) but per my brother's Ancestry research, ***THREE*** Mayflower ancestors. Price is right style, Marshfield, 35 inches.

GFS in 6 days has the mother of all ice storms in Dallas, surface freezing line to Houston suburbs with rain, and the last post before just now was 6 hours ago. Euro has the cold, not the precip. You guys are lucky, the land of 400 page threads for one storm.

0Z GFS has Houston very close to an ice storm Thursday night and Friday. Euro has the cold, not the precip.

Was James the Coast Guard(? Air Force?) guy from Cape Cod? I saw a comment about COVID page 1.

I don't remember if it was this forum or NYC, but there used to be model comparisons at initialization through the current valid time, some posters used to actually look at water vapor loops and satellite and try to judge which model seemed to be most correct at an early frame. That was about 10 years ago, but it gave confidence that one model may have a better handle than others just based on initialization and 3 and 6 hour forecasts vs actual conditions.

Silly question- from seeing weak and sheared tropical systems where the center absolutely chases the convection, with some runs suggesting a warm core and a warmer than normal Atlantic off the NE, maybe surface lows chasing convection out towards the Gulf stream might make some sense. Does that make sense?

Totally OT, but I'm old enough to remember when one had to ride a bus from North Quincy to Dorchester/Fields Corner to catch a train to visit the certainly dead by now Mom's Great Aunt Mary Lydon in the projects on probably what would be considered the Dorchester/South Boston border. G.A. Mary was the only relative I ever met (not counting in-laws) who had an accent. Later, when visiting Grandma, in North Quincy, I road in to Andrew Square, road down to Ashmont, and took the trolley because someone said it was the only trolley line to run through a cemetery.

Are we close enough now for red taggers to choose which models initialized well and at hour 6 are closest to actual conditions? I understand storms over a warmer than normal Atlantic may pull the surface low Eastward, but so far, in the battle of the 12Z models, which is closest at 12Z and 18Z?

If ORH is getting an inch plus LE, PYM is 2 1/2 inches, BOS almost, ie, where most people live, how is that a worry. In my day living in NYC subforum and visiting SNE school breaks, except 1978, 6 inches was tremendous

Eastern Cape is close to rain taint at beginning on European, surface temps mid 30s at start. Somehow MVY stays a smidge colder than Hyannis. Any more West ruins it. Two Summers in Harwichport 1970s/1980s.

I think ocean temps keep dropping until March, or February as a peak season for snow with onshore winds makes sense, especially if one thinks of sun angle as being something of a sine wave, not changing much a month either side of the Solstice, and changing most rapidly at the Equinox. 'Relatively' low sun angle for the colder offshore waters.

Kuchera adds 3 or 6 hour ratio snows, IIRC, so 40 inches plus of fluff packs down, to what, 2 1/2 feet? Is there a doctoral candidate somewhere developing an Enhanced Kuchera storm total model that accounts for compaction?

Wrong forum, but speaking of Queens, (Queens, NY), look at that gradient. I suppose 'West of the Connecticut River' gradient also important.

Can the coastal front really get so far inland it dry slots (relatively) places East of I-95?

Happened last year in the ice storm in Fort Worth. I lived up North, not even we can really drive on ice, but we don't drive 60 in it. NWS FWD had warnings posted. https://www.nbcdfw.com/local/graphic-video-shows-cars-18-wheelers-collide-on-icy-i-35w-in-fort-worth/2549202/

World Airways DC-10. Cockpit and first few rows of first class broke into the water, dead passengers never found.

FSU tropical site also has a link for model slant-instability and CAPE

Kuchera, if I remember @forkyfork's post, doesn't capture stuff like riming, and since it just accumulates snow over intervals, a 3 foot 'cold' Kuchera would compact under its own weight to far less. Unless you board measure, not yardstick after the fact, as kids did in the 1970s.

I flew SWA (HOU to) FLL to ISP in 2015 for my Aunt Marguerite's funeral in Bay Shore. I was first group, offered a cute Shinnecock (I though she was Hispanic) woman a free drink to sit by me, not because I was perving, because I am fat and she was tiny, and it was Southwest), anyway, ISP is walking distance to hotels (trust me), models look close to 2 feet, who flies from FLL to ISP? Except that flight was full, but go tomorrow morning and get a room. Shinnecock are Native Americans, I knew of Shinnecock Inlet and 1938, no idea a nation was there. She had a small bottle of Kahlua. She was cute, but I was, and am, married.

Markey Mark and Clooney drowning at the end was epic. Making Grace a Cat 5 kept that movie from being perfect.

Where do I find the national blended model that TV mets like to use here in Houston? What does the blend say? Oh- is the national blended model like the FSU Super Ensemble, where it analyzes past events and model performance and then weights models accordingly? Do they make clown maps for the national blend?