Ed, snow and hurricane fan

And looking at SWIR on CIMMS, the MLC is almost a degree North of where the Invest is tagged. That could be a rapid North jump if an LLC fires below that. Bed time, AC out at work today, our customers get let in at 6:20, (we officially open at 7 am) or the traffic gets crazy after about 6:15, and I should work from home (exit tickets) before work. 18Z Euro ensembles below, more Louisiana than Texas members, later in this run (hour 144) there is an outlier still at 977 mb near Luling, TX. I'll wait on a recon center fix making the models before I get too concerned with 4 or 5 hours of a satellite loop. I assume this will have an eye by Sunday night and satellite tracking will be easier.

You ever been w/o electricity more than a day or two? My biggest and 'badest' was 60 miles inland from a Cat 2, not even a major, and houses in my neighborhood had roof damage (not my roof, although I had tiles and boards from somebody's roof in my yard). I was lucky, only 5 days no power. I get hyped about big weather events, I suspect most people on the board do, but imagine someone hoping your home town is ground zero for an EF-5 tornado. Those are intriguing and historical as well.

Is the NHC 5 day development cone where they think a not yet developed disturbance could become a tropical cyclone, or where the possible TC could be in 5 days? Because the GFS and two dynamic hurricane models show landfall in under 5 days and the red cone is not onshore Northern Gulf.

GEFS not only widely spread in distance, also in time. Has members offshore Wednesday morning. These are sub 996 mb lows.

Because a likely major hurricane hits New Orleans in 4 days, or something seems wrong with the modeling. Thanks.

Sunday is sooner than the models had been showing before...

On a worst case track moving NW. I know the levees were rebuilt to be stronger and less likely to experience over-wash, which resulted in a lot of failures, but they don't need this.

It seems to be consolidating the 850 mb center farther North, which would make sense if the MLC is strong enough to form an LLC. I don't think the Florida Panhandle is off the hook. Barely clips the W tip of Cuba, minimal land interaction.

GFS Ensembles still spraying Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. 8 sub 984 mb hurricanes, South Texas to Florida Panhandle. NHC has 3 low level flights and a high altitude data flight tomorrow/Friday morning. Don't see that for just any old invest.

Internet says Laura was 939. I know it isn't just the pressure, it is the gradient (1983 Alicia was named a TS w/ 1014 mb central pressure, but it was imbedded in a surface ridge), but 932mb on a 13 km model is scary. This looks like it hits the same area, although 6 days out, who knows. I do now I got several students last year from Lake Charles, because their homes were destroyed and they moved or moved in w/ relatives in Houston. They probably just finishing rebuilding the fishing and oilfield docks in Cameron.

Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts. I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge.

My understanding, 6Z models get least AMDAR/ACARS (upper air wind, heights and temp data) because not many airplanes flying middle of the night/early morning Americas/Western Europe. But 6Z Euro ensembles have stopped trending East.

Deja Laura on 0Z and 6Z GFS

Judging by 18Z Euro ensembles, the trend that started closer to Veracruz than Tampico and has been coming North may be shifting from the NW Gulf (Texas) to the Northern Gulf is continuing. Bed before 0Z models, up before 5 am CDT

Slow trend on the Caribbean to Yucatan into the Gulf system. Has trended to Texas/Louisiana from Mexico, trend may not be done yet. Euro already East of us, but most ECENS are South. 18Z GFS, but not super fantasy range.

The wave itself looked like nothing when NHC put the X on it for development, based on the models, but it now looks like a tropical wave the average blob watcher (like me) would notice. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=watl&product=ir

Not quite Harvey, whose floods closed all the Houston area schools for 2 weeks, but the 18Z GFS storm just meanders after landfall with onshore flow to the N of the modeled center. If there is good news, models still seem to be trending East.

Its ensembles say Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana. Tuesday morning, from Weather Nerds. If 'the trend is my friend', this hits Tampa Bay,

12Z GFS on the border, and then, like yesterday's 12Z Euro, meanders the low around Texas, w/ greater than 10 inch storm total QPF over much of coastal Texas. I qualified the misses Texas above w/probably, in 2008 I confidently predicted a hurricane would not hit Texas. No training for arm chair amateurs, but I qualify every pseudo-prediction since then.

Decent signal on GFS and its ensembles for several days, a storm already on the NHC radar that **probably** stays South of Texas, and another Caribbean storm that may enter the Gulf and **probably doesn't** hit Mexico. (Texas to Florida). The one that probably misses Texas is at 60% already for 5 days despite currently almost a nothing burger on satellite near the Venezuela coast South of Hispaniola on model support alone. Euro has had a couple of runs of the orange into S. Texas, but most ensembles don't support that.

KTRK, ABC-13, 'chief met' (60 hour MSU green screen certificate) hyping the European run. KHOU-11 has degreed mets, but showing a golf tournament, for some odd reason.

I don't know, but I ripped up carpets and padding for my wife's cousin, and her grandparents, after Allison, almost a week no electricity and 2 weeks no school after Ike, a week no school after the Tax Day floods, 2 weeks no school after Harvey, and February, 12 or 18 hours a day rolling blackouts for 5 days during the freeze. A teacher I worked with used up all her sick days and was going unpaid because multiple burst pipes wrecked her home and she had to meet with contractors and insurance people.

Most of the ensembles are farther South, but if there is still a weenie of the year award, I nominate myself.

0Z was interesting, a storm deep in the BoC followed by another CAG storm that is the next Hurricane Ike in 13 days. Too far out in model land to worry about a second storm generated by the gyre, but enough model and ensemble agreement on the first one next weekend. Course and strength unknown, but Ida likely, and while a few Texas storms, Mexico seems heavily favored by the ensembles. But at a week, is Alabama safe? Hoping to see smart people like yconsor start posting on this. Will follow Dr. Papin closely, expert on the CAG.