Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Is someone with PPV radar starting the nowcast/obs thread soon?

Cold and snow, no monster storms I remember, unlike 77-78, but 76-77 had snow and serious cold, below zero on Long Island. I delivered the Daily News as a kid then.

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over. But even when Texas hurricane season is over, the tropics still influence the weather.

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.

Op GFS maybe tries to develop something in a week, but it gets stuck over Central America then the Yucatan. A few of the GEFS do like that for development,

NHC had Pamela landfalling as a Major. Doesn't seem likely.

Kate weakened from a Cat 3 (to a strong 2) just before hitting Florida just over a week before Thanksgiving It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

Not explicit on the model, but I think there is a chance that if a low forms on the cold front that enters the Gulf, it might try to at least go sub-tropical before coming North next weekend or early the week after.

NCEP's EWP MJO forecast worked for me all season, until mid-late September when it suggested a brief inactive phase and then after about 5 October an active Caribbean. It isn't perfect, but newest suggests mid-month things get active again. Edit to add: this would mean the EWP forecast from last week was wrong as well, as it kept the unfavorable phase until almost the end of October. But things might get active again around mid-October

No expert, but non-circular isobars to the S of a low often show where the front it, at the discontinuity. I think that is frontal.

CPC's MJO EWP finally let me down. Worked pretty well all season in predicting active periods, A bit over a week ago it was saying after the first week of October, upward motion would be favorable in the Caribbean and W Atlantic. Latest has pushed that back to mid-month. As far as the boring C- season goes, high end Cat 4 hurricanes, last letter of the standard alphabet left, much of the coast directly or indirectly affected, I'd hate to see an A+ season. I assume Miami and NYC would need direct Cat 5/Cat 4 hits?

6Z GEFS- Southern Gulf/Caribbean infested with members showing a storm with 1000 mb or below pressure a week from tomorrow.

After 10 days, GEFS look interesting for developing in Caribbean and headed to Gulf action.

IIRC, ACE is based strictly on wind speed (squared) and time. Small storms with the same top winds rank w/ large storms of same top winds. IKE, Integrated Kinetic Energy, includes areas affected by winds of various speeds. Harder math, but includes size. I could be wrong.

I didn't save the Tweet, but a couple of days ago someone on Weather Twitter screencapped some news website asking if Sam was going to be the next Sandy. For the laughs and disappointment someone could hype that much. Now that no model brings it close, out of sight, out of mind. That and the eye is warming. Eyewall convection still cold, but the eye itself, pretty meh.

Late in the year for CV storms, especially ones that look like they could effect the Lesser Antilles. Oh, has anyone seen the GFS ensembles?

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa. (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name) 1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005. But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active. 3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening. Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs. And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

Cool seeing how sonde is rotating around the eye as wind directions shift almost 90 degrees.

6Z GFS has enough members over or West of Bermuda, Sam is not 100% fish. Canadian Hurricane Centre would issue advisories on a post-tropical cyclone, potentially still hurricane force, that might hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, and Sam is nice to look at, although I am getting impatient on a clear eye. Last night bedtime I could've sworn a warm spot was appearing right where it should. And I think after a quiet first few days, October gets active, and they're less likely to fish where there form then.

I think I see a warm spot starting to develop on the IR where one would expect an eye to appear looking at Trop. Tidbits. Have read the posts after I got home from work and seen the guidance, this is obviously probably not an ECUSA threat, or interest may drop, but a classic major hurricane, well, Isabel, I downloaded loops on a 56k phone modem when she was at peak, as I get older, enjoying hurricanes is getting easier.

In the Navy, pre-internet days, heard about Gloria after the fact.

I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child. I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities. If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there.

I know only two hurricanes have struck Texas in October in the last century, but now that I see that TS making landfall near BPT, and with warmer than normal SSTs, I'm all in on a Texas landfall as a hurricane Just kidding. But it is possible...

Interesting look, the cut off low from day 9 to 10 is almost stationary but the ridge to its East is building around it. Very interesting.