Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Cold front coming! 60% chance of rain and a forecast 91*F Friday. Mentioned it on tropics thread, no model support, but moisture pooling offshore under failry light shear over water near 90*F, a Colin-esque spin up isn't impossible.

I'd take the under on TSR's 18 NS, but with abnormally high OHC and a busy October forecast, their 3 MH seems quite likely. 97L isn't dead, just pining for the fjords. and in JB mode, wave in Western Caribbean is badly sheared and not forecast to do much, but an August cold front is 3 days away, GFS shows moisture pooling in the Northern Gulf, under not unfavorable shear, and a Colin-esque quick spin up anywhere from SE Texas across the Gulf to off the SC/GA/FL coast can happen.

Next weekend, ICON and GFS see a wave moving into the Gulf, the ICON closes it to a depression or weak storm. I am aware the ICON is like the Canadian, but the GFS sees the ICON wave.

Has there ever been a 0/0/0 September? I checked 1983, the slowest season in the satellite era, it has a September storm, but I haven't memorized anything, I rely on Wiki. A pro-met who used to post here is an editor on the Wikipedia Atlantic seasons pages.

OT on season cancel, it looks like a surface feature is interacting with an upper low SE of the Carolinas, if the blob still looks good in 12 hours.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

0/0/0 is possible, I suppose, but climatology alone, even if the year winds up below average, I'd bet the over every time. Oh, I'd keep an eye on any front that reaches offshore SE US or the Gulf. Edit to Add 1983, lowest NS in the satellite era, had a September storm, TS Dean.

It was mentioned in the HGX AFD, abnormally high upper level RH might lead to thick anvils from the storms that formed, and prevent more widespread coverage. Solid cloud cover, occasional drops of rain when I was walking, but only a few thunderstorms in the area. IAH made it to 94* at noon, but has since dropped into the upper 70s. 94* is a degree below normal.

Just the usual reminder that even in dead seasons like 1983 and 1992, major hurricanes can still hit population centers. 'A' storms that formed in August. 1992 a Cat 5 just South of MIA and a Cat 3 near KPTN.

ECMWF.int still showing me monthly forecasts initialized July 1. When should I expect it to update?

I don't know which is the chicken and which is the egg, but with SSTs almost 90*F (buoy 42035 not reporting 1 meter water temps), but the jetty and the amusement park Pleasure Pier are 89* ATM), it is easy to see why Galveston has been so warm. IAH has been 99*F on the hour last three hours, but with an Easterly wave moving in from Louisiana tomorrow, 60% rain chances at IAH and forecast 94*F would be first below normal temp I can remember for at least a month, and a 30% chance at CLL. Aggieland got 0.01 inches for July after 0.1 inches in June, and grass fires have started around there, Dallas and Austin. If there is no rain, when late September cold front season starts, with strong and gusty winds follow the fronts, it'll be back to 2011.

His father went to Texas A&M, JB, besides the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, sort of kind of pays attention to SE Texas. GEFS dead, empirical and BOM, EC and empirical MJO forecasts for August 21 to August 24 as beginning of favorable Atlantic phase, ensembles may start showing 2 week activity sometime this weekend.

Nothing impressive, strengthwise, but Day 10 ECENS, about 40% of them show something in the MDR, which is the most I have seen from it in a long time. Edit to add, via Twitter, I am focusing on the major hurricane hitting Cape Cod sometime in the next 6 weeks.

Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. I think this is anthropomorphizing a computer model. I don't think a computer model thinks about early September being the peak, and who knows how many equations simplified to transforms with thousands of terms just decides to spin up a cyclone because it is peak season. GFS ensembles at 10 days with a grain of salt, but ~10% with closed lows in the Caribbean.

Professional met who does this for a living, 1936, Hurricane 13, possibly not common knowledge, but everybody knows 1938. My Mom was 4 then and remembers it. 1950 had 'King'.

No rain again my house, but fifth day of random storms popping up, drifting erratically, then dying. Drops yesterday and thunder, not enough to wet the sidewalk. But the anvils last long after the storms die, Houston was only 1 degree above normal 2 days ago, was 95*F, exactly normal, yesterday. Few people getting the rain, but those that do are getting 1 to 2 inches. IAH and HOU both have had measurable precip since the ridge shifted a bit.

I remember the 1997 CSU forecast busting because of a poorly forecast warm ENSO. CSU has busted before, if one always predicts their numbers are too high, just law of averages, one will eventually be right. Maybe CSU will bust, I don't know, but with an abnormally warm Gulf, with flow usually a general W to E from the Equinox on, I can see even an average season becoming quite memorable with a Florida major. 1985, Hurricane Kate weakened to Cat 2 from Cat 3 and hit Florida a week before Thanksgiving.

This is 2020, but we had SAL air quality alerts this summer as well in Houston. Makes the sky a bit milky. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/26/sahara-dust-air-quality/

I'm not piling on, but at 2 weeks out, I'd use ensemble 500 mb ensemble means and realize it is still, at best, a guide, not the answer. 384 hour run of GFS MSLP doesn't mean that much

Not just Texas, while PHX may see Summer monsoon rains, wildfires should become an issue soon.

Wildfires could become an issue anytime now.

Tracking the Euro back, the system just passing 0 degrees is what the model and its ensembles like. Looks like it already has some vorticity, but the other models don't seem very enthusiastic. Edit to add- no models likes the wave that just came off, but it sure is a pretty wave/

Unfortunately, the GEFS means don't show much rain in the next week anywhere in Texas, but the Eastern trough seems to split the Western US and Western Atlantic ridges enough for slightly cooler (ie, normal) temps next weekend.

On the Texas subforum, DFW has broken their all time max minimum and all time average daily temperature record. Houston is breaking records from 1980, the benchmark year (along w/ 2011) for heat. I still lived up North in 1980, I remember all the 2011 wildfires rather well. I hope the monsoon helps Phoenix. There is nothing short term to help Texas, except maybe the tropics, and the same ridge that drives record heat deflects any TCs away from Texas. Although Allen, landfall on the border, did interrupt the Texas heatwave in 1980.

With September 10 the peak. I was NOT agreeing with the LDub season cancel theme.

NWS HGX has a 30% chance of much needed rain from a weak disturbance under the ridge coming from Louisiana. 100*F in Houston moved us to #5 on list of 100*F days in a Summer, we just got back from 2 days in San Antonio, they are already #3 on their list of 100* days. IAH forecast under 100 today.