Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Only a couple of GEFS disagree, no W Carib threat to the Gulf in a week-10 days, a Beta type school cancelling for a day system would have been fun, but now looks like we survive the Equinox, the unofficial (1940s and Jerry, yes, I know) end of Texas season, a week w/o electricity, no adrenaline this year, but no power sucks. Louisiana to Maine, season still happening.

Looked more annular this morning.

If it does hit Bermuda (I count eyewall, myself, especially for a small island, as a hit), it isn't a fish.

W Car system is so far South it crosses BoC quickly, and doesn't develop.

On topic- 18Z GFS suddenly spins up 91L in 3 days (not a closed low yet). No idea what happens after, 500 mb pattern, it will get swept quickly off the East Coast, I suspect, if it develops much at all. Long Island born (Doria, Belle) and live in Houston (Allison, Rita scare (12 hours no power, MIL lost her fruiting avocado tree, but nothing like expected locally) Ike, Barry (no rain, but winds started serious wildfires W of here), then TS Harvey and Imelda), I lose local interest, because, Freeport in 1940s and Jerry as exceptions, season ends with Equinox, but 1938 was an obsession growing up, Sandy, of course (missed Gloria in the Navy), I stop looking for 10 day storms in 3 weeks, but I'll follow any ECUSA threats all year. Then Nor'Easter season. 1978 alone, 2 school cancelling storms. Still very excited, but no power for 2 weeks after Ike, people at my church dying in Harvey, relatives flooded out by Allison, now more love/hate confliction now.

I can't follow the forecast GFS Gulf system back w/ 850 mb vorticity, I *think*, following PW back, this might be the origin of the system the GFS develops. It reaches the area of higher vort/already high PW (edit- in far S Caribbean/coast SA), merges, and something develops. Looks harmless now.

The truck tire has a nasty looking crack in it, although new convection may be trying to fix it.

SHIPS annular index is 45, about halfway between not annular and annular. It sort of looks annular. Better informed people, annular or not?

If, as GFS most runs and about half the ensembles, have a TC in the Gulf in 8 or 9 days, trough position only means is it Texas/Mexico, Louisiana/Mississippi, or Alabama/Florida? Little escapes the Gulf. Northeast US, late September (1038), late October (Sandy), just off top of my head, and I am sure as the pattern transitions to Autumn, steering will be constantly changing. Oh, empirical MJO prediction has been fairly good this year, Florida could have an interesting October from Caribbean systems,.

Won't be a thing in the tropics to discuss in a week. Horrid.

While Fujiwara refers to tropical systems, I think it is driven by mid level lows close enough to influence each other. I could be wrong.

Cocodrie is quite close to Fourchon. By water, not by car. I was high on pressure and low on winds. I think I was low Cat 4.

IMBYism, I can think of 2 hurricanes in 100+ years that hit Texas in October. The Equinox is a switch. We get a 'real' cold front a week either side, the first real Autumn cold front. (We get little dewpoint/windshift fronts all Summer, I'm talking a front ordinary people notice). But 6Z/12Z GFS system is a real concern locally, today's Sept 14/17 prediction is 1-4 days after Ike landfall date and before Equinox. A bullet to be dodged. #91L looks pretty meh, but even a TD's rains near Ida's path is obviously bad.

NWS Upton deleted the tweet, but...

Rain estimates from radar aren't hail contaminated. In fact, down here (Houston), for TCs, they put 88Ds in 'tropical ZR mode', not sure if rain now would still be in that form, but tropical system rains are underestimated by radar in normal mode.

That is Houston 2001 Allison level rainfall rates. Insane,

6Z GEFS, a few outliers comes close to ECUSA, and Bermuda is clearly as risk in 8 or 9 days. This may not be a pure 'fish' storm. Students back from lunch in 2 minutes

The Bayou Bouef I know of in Louisiana outlets near Morgan City, so this isn't a metro New Orleans levee failure unless there is more than one of those

Makes sense now. Houston isn't adjacent to a lake open to the ocean.

It could be rain, but the second floor window flooding rescues in Houston/Harvey didn't start the first day with the first foot of rain. Not claiming to be any kind of expert in rainfall runoff, but roof top rescues from a foot of rain, that doesn't seem likely in fairly flat terrain.

I think that is where the memorable footage of a driver driving into the water and a reporter rushing in to help him was, near the I-10/610 split. I've been to New Orleans and Venice enough to know that area. That video was on TV before people outside NOLA knew about the flooding in the city. I don't know if that is rainwater flooding alone, or there has been a flood control/levee breach. But that area was where the first indication New Orleans wasn't fine, as reported by reporters staying in the French Quarter.

People on Twitter are making him mad. I suspect he gets a new account, assuming he lives, and I am assuming he does.

Samaras was always very careful, if Discovery hadn't replaced the tornado chasing show for stupid shows about convicts and their boy/girlfriends outside and 90 day fiancees and gold miners, he'd have still had his truck, not some 90 horsepower little Chevy, and would be alive today

I'm talking electrical transmission towers, not broadcast towers. I spent 2 weeks in a Holiday Inn in the French Quarter in 2000, I worked in New Iberia but was covering for an engineer going on vacation whose then died. I worked in an office in the Shell building. I was working for Halliburton then. My last trip to NOLA was pre-Katrina with my wife for a casino/drinking long weekend.