Ed, snow and hurricane fan

20% of 18Z GEFS w/ sub 1000 mb low in/near Gulf in 13 days.

This would be a great time for anyone w/ 10 - 15 day Euro ensembles to post them. For the future possible 95 or 96L that may track South of the Greater Antilles.

From disco

PTC 6 in 30 minutes.

1) 94L looks good but arc clouds on visible suggests dry air issues and it doesn't quite look closed.. I still suspect a PTC in 90 minutes for Martinique and St. Lucia TS advisories. 2) GFS catches every hill in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba with 94L, and still brings a TD or even a minimal TS to the Florida Panhandle. Small differences in track could mean less land, more water. OTOH, the no land SHIPS only slowly intensifies it, increasing shear from West after 3 days. After, some GFS ensembles support decent wave approaching Yucatan from Caribbean on Euro at 240 hours.

Twitter, hints tomorrow some people lower numbers, but while peak September season may be in a suppressive MJO phase, mid-late August looks favorable and hints of STR weakness near/just West of East Coast, while peak season may be slow, before peak season (mid August) may be busy, and ECUSA could be involved. If MJO is 40 days, who knows the October pattern for Florida or ECUSA.

Looks like bad data, (reports near there- less than 1 foot wave) parts of Alaska still under advisories. Hawaii in the clear.

10% of 0Z GFS ensemble perturbations look interesting in the Gulf in 12 days.

NDBC DART (tsunami detection) buoy Shumagin Is, AK seems to show the tsunami.

No PPV radar access, but free Wunderground radial velocity, pretty sure the warned tornado is a tornado. https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/wi/milwaukee/mkx

If memory serves, Katrina and Rita made landfall as Cat 3s.

Slow part of the season question. Texas has had a few Cat 4s, never a Cat 5. Rare, but Florida has had at least 3. 1) Dry downslope air off Mexican/West Texas higher elevation deserts mix into a major storm approaching Texas, and/or 2) Warm but shallow water off Texas upwells. I think both, but more likely the shallow water, dry air has to wrap in over warm water for a long time if shear isn't helping it. (I read Derek Ortt's MS thesis, a well developed cyclone can resist dry air unless shear is pushing it directly into the circulation.)

4 hours later, less convection, no GEFS support (based on pressure, although mean precip totals suggests some ensembles see something very weak bringing some rain tracking West through Florida and then dying over the Central Gulf) Not *quite* McCoy time, but close. Euro Op and some ensembles suggest something weak, not directly linked to 90L, tries but fails to organize in the Eastern Gulf, that *might* be the GEFS mean precip, not 90L. Either way, looking slow.

A very elliptical LLC with only the Southeastern edge near convection is not a TC, in my opinion, but NHC not cancelling the flight tells me their current development odds probably reflect the chances of an upgrade in a bit over an hour.

1990s, in Excel, you could put in observed lab or field data, several variables, guessing their relative weight or relation (squared, cubes, log) with coefficients, and make it best fit the data and determine the coefficients. r^2 suggested if one had relative importance wrong. I'm sure one can still do that today in Excel, but I have no idea how I did it.

CPC's EWP (empirical) MJO changes slightly, but has remained fairly consistent last 2 weeks, the Atlantic becomes favorable after the first week of August. 5 day running mean, you can see it is coming, although the unfavorable phase won't end immediately. Not an MJO master, spaghetti in various phases, unless well clustered, I don't even try. It seems useful in relatively neutral ENSOs. I follow Paul Roundy's students on social media, I don't know the science of CCKWs and the such, but it is useful. I assume empirical has the same meaning as in engineering, equations derived from best fit data, not theoretically derived. Or empirical predictions that have been fairly stable should be fairly accurate.

The proverbial squashed spider.

Where 90L disappears for good, per GFS. The red circle on the 48 hour PW/850 mb wind image is where the 850 vort forecast shows the remnant vorticity. Wrapping in some very dry air.

Local NWS discos suggesting rainfall totals from radar may be conservative, sort of the opposite of hail contamination, radar tends to underestimate rainfall from warm processes. Metro Houston has just missed out on significant flooding.

I took every precaution except Texas public schools were open and hard to make 12 year old kids keep masks on. 102F, developed pneumonia, cleared in 2 weeks w/o hospital (ruined Christmas), but I now have tinnitus, which gets better and worse, but never goes away. I'm 57, maybe you can bug chase if 30, but teachers in my district died, Mrs Beard, 8th grade secretary at my campus, Dueitt MS, died. Near my age. Moving to a new district partly because masks and a badly calibrated (unless my average temp is below 96F) only precaution, plus I wanted to teach pre-calc and AP Calc, which 11-14 year old students don't take.

Won't develop because the lowest pressure inland, and if no model likes it, there is a reason. Lowest pressure formed yesterday where conditions were most favorable, inland, but upper levels are becoming favorable over the coastal blob. If that low was closer to the coast...

I've seen mets discuss the 1938 hurricane, and while it has been a Cat 5 in the Bahamas, it still had Cat 3 winds because of baroclinic forcing. Almost no rain West of the center. I'd guess that is what the ensembles are seeing.

72 hour hour Euro ensemble snip from Weather Nerds... Several 50 knot plus members.

Hurricane Belle was my first exposure to cable TV. Dad's co-worker, Eddie Harkin, lived in North Massapequa and Nassau Shores had an evacuation order. Uprooted weeping willow trees, if not removed, don't die. Dad would not let me go outside the Harkin's house to experience a hurricane. Power went out moments before what would have been my first R rated movie...

Personally, Hurricane Belle, 1978 forecast change to rain that didn't happen no school day, and Blizzard of 1978 5 days no school day, storm drains to Great South Bay and storm surge creating greenish/salt water tinged snow near drains. AmWx, joy of Sabbath observant posters, who logged off at dusk thinking it was storm cancel, logging back on the next evening to mode shifts/blizzard warnings Boxing Day. My family and I vacationed with our Jewish neighbors in Curacao, they weren't observant, but I've seen a red tagger here and a Twitter 'Bobbi Storm' who are Sabbath observant and wondering if there is a connection. (I think I tagged Anthony on FB once, I am claiming Italian-American ancestry, my brother's Ancestry search, the 'Grossman' ancestor from Padua, not Austro-Hungarian as we'd always thought. 1/8th English, Marshfield, 3 Mayflower ancestors. Marshfield is the next town to Plymouth, possible. Mostly Irish ancestry, but not like NYC, or especially Mom's native South Boston, where stuff like that mattered).