Ed, snow and hurricane fan

FWD did a 15Z balloon. Not on SPC site yet. 18Z on an enhanced day is almost normal, 15Z, someone is concerned.

82F/DP 71 in Houston. Rained during work, puddles in the parking lot. If that is already here, April style airmass into the DFW Metroplex seems a done deal.

Nothing crazy but some 6Z ECEN support GFS 6Z means seems to bring heaviest rain near the coast after Election Day.

My bet crazy low strategy came so close.

No TT video, a November hurricane in Belize is different.

I can wait a day to see if dry air and shear let up, mess on visible satellite.

95L worth its own topic? The SHIPS isn't as bad as might be expected for deep, medium and shallow level steering models being so spread out, a quick hint of shear.

Back to marginal...

SPC this morning promoted Houston from Marginal to Slight. 2% tornado, just missing the 5%, 15% wind. 45 minute conference, I can only check so many models, especially if I was working the first 25 minutes. Coastal front not far, HOU and IAH DPs mid 60s, low 70s just S of here, and morning coastal convection is moving out. No insolation to speak of, but 70s DP last weekend of November isn't shabby.

SPC SWODY2 seems to follow 12Z CAM guidance closely, with an area of very favorable EHI just S of I-10, such that Houston is barely marginal but nearby SGR, 15 minutes away (an hour away rush hour) is in a 5% tornado risk. 18Z doesn't look much different. Immediate HOU looks slightly elevated. Houston, as a trend, underperforms, coastal storms retard inland progression more than models forecast. So the odds 0Z models will shift much on something less than a day away. But Houston rarely has interesting severe weather (last F-4 (pre-EF scale) was November 1992, IIRC) and slight weenie even for slightly elevated storms. Severe isn't my big thing, snow/ice and tropical, but DFW, a typical thunderstorm matches a once a 5 year Long Island storm.

12Z GFS seems doable, at least. Has some ECENS support.

Roslyn is battling shear, part of the LLC is exposed. HWRF makes it a major, although it is weakening as it approaches Mexico.

That time of year when East Pac tropics can affect our sensible weather. The GEFS means are not showing a flood event for Texas but the 10/70 lemon/cherry does help the drought. Should be 90E in a day or three.

After Allison 2001, FEMA was in my neighborhood (came to my house) and others, following the freshwater floods, and FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance offered some people money in lieu of further insurance, that is, they would not re-insure people who flooded many times before. They cleared entire subdivisions near the bayous, and I think they did the same in 2017. Saltwater flooding, if the risk is that high, FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance should buy the property and leave it undeveloped. Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize building in disaster prone areas.

Maybe try to push up the South Mexican coast until tomorrow night's Texas cold front drives it back South end of the week. Looking at 12Z op 250 mb winds, nothing survives in the Northern Gulf very long anyway. For personal reasons, I hope it isn't named.

May get a number before being sheared apart. But it did pop up on a single day's notice.

If we can avoid a freeze this year I'll have bananas in the back yard next Summer. Roots are hardy, even a hard frost kills the leaves back, and it takes over a year to start bunching. This has nothing to do with hurricane season, but it is over in Texas, and banana and citrus killing weather comes next.

Yucatan lemon does show up on both GEFS and ECENS, but weak and straight into Mexico.

10 named storms. Not hyperactive, but majors and a significant US landfall, this isn't 1983. May go up from 10, some GEFS like a late season MDR storm, and who knows what mid-latitude low in the subtropics might catch a name.

Be an interesting case if future Julia becomes an East Pac cyclone. Just a bit S of NHC forecast could do it.

There seems a small chance, after flooding Central America, future Julia becomes an EPAC storm. At 6 days, the ensembles and models aren't wildly divergent. Brief emergence into BoC before second landfall, death by Central America, or EPac landfall seem the likely options. Should get a name in two days when it gets away from S America.

Whatever chance future Julia might have had to cross the Yucatan and be steered E or NE towards Florida/Eastern Gulf coast is fading fast as it stays S and stays weak. GFS C. America landfall seems like a decent forecast. Models and ensembles are coming into agreement on that. Floridians probably don't mind a week or three of quiet weather. Some GFS ensembles in S part of BOC after C.A. or the Yucatan, all seem Mexico bound

Elongated trough with no real closed circulation, judging from recon. Above post is likely right, it doesn't matter what the pattern is over North America, it will remain too far S and too weak to get pulled into the Gulf. Probably CA S of the Yucatan.

I don't think recon will find a closed center. There was a wind shift with the little naked swirl that popped out earlier, but that doesn't seem likely to develop.

If it is just a normal season, but with a big hurricane hit on Puerto Rico, and an even biggest hit on Canada, and then, biggest hit in SW Florida in years, I don't think, even with the dead August and first half of September, this season is a disappointment.