Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I'm guessing two days off the full moon, there will still be an above normal tidal influence on surge.

Looks like the storm is starting to push a bit off outflow from the S side despite the shear. (Which per CIMMS analysis isn't that bad now)

An eye starting to form?

Big.

HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

Quoting myself, HWRF is fairly close on current satellite presentation.

Intensifies up to landfall (near 975 mb) on HWRF. Large eye or eye like feature near Port St. Lucie (I lived in Orlando, for a year, but don't know the FL East Coast well, other than Daytona-KSC-Cocoa Beach). Speaking of, sustained storm (50 knot) winds to near there on the coast, gales extend well N. Surge would seem to be larger than a purely tropical system. Semi-related- how well does the HWRF usually do with hybrid systems?

Tons of shear and very low cloud base, but nil instability. 4 days out, of course. Wouldn't need much instability.

Rainfall looks fairly tropical on WRF in less than 48 hours.

@jllevin79 If not cancelled, there will probably be shifting winds in squalls, which will cause ground stops/delays. Also look where your flight to TPA originated at before your airport. Coming out of PBI or MIA/FLL almost certainly suggests either cancelled or delayed. I've been on badly delayed flights because of weather in distant cities. OT- Nicole just spit out 'an' LLC within a broader within a broader center from beneath convection. Probably forms a new LLC, but not a sign intensification will be anything but slow.

973 mb landfall a bit N of PBI verbatim

50/80 cherry now.

This isn't completely unlike Kate in 1985 hitting Florida in November. I was on a ship in Alameda before the internet era, and missed Kate and Gloria. Nothing happened in 1983 in Orlando 32813 when I was there. But I liked Orlando. Looking at WxNerds 114 GEFS, most tracks S of MCO.

60F dewpoints in November may be even more impressive than the temps. Though getting that warm while also humid is also impressive.

I can't see damage, but lost roof shingles (all over the lawn) and have filed a claim with our insurer.

97L looks most untropical, but since STS are now named, between the SW ATL mandarin and 97L, could get to Nicole and Owen. 2001 and before, the season would be over. STS were numbered, not named.

Lisa is officially dead, but there is still a remnant low W of the convection. Not coming back w/ 30 knots analyzed shear...

Op GFS has backed down a lot on intensity, but it looks like something is going to happen. ECENS not as enthusiastic, of course.

Gust front in N Houston probably was 50 knots. Power flash as lights went off. They came back on. Line of weakening showers still W of here, but that was a heck of a wind for a few minutes.

Ryan Hall has an image of the wedge moving towards the Red River.

Back home and watching Ryan Hall Youtube. Near Paris tornado video and damage from earlier being replayed. Edit- Sulphur Springs in a PDS tornado warning.

Johnson County (heading toward Tarrant) cell starting to look interesting. Anyone with GR super radar?

NWS Amarillo tweeted, 35F with mixed rain and snow. HOU is 84F. That is a temperature gradient.

Well to the W of the SC, but HOU 80sF temp/70sF DPs is more like October or early June than November. Post 'front', temps still forecast in the 80s. GFS has this briefly symmetric and warm core.

I think I just heard thunder, although out earlier everything looked under the cap and radar still doesn't show more than streamer showers in Houston area. Walked into a stiff S wind with light rain just over an hour ago. We are getting breaks of sun, 80F/74F, not sure that reaches DFW before the storms, but gusting to 31 mph, which is probably about what LLJ is, that will make East Texas.