Ed, snow and hurricane fan
-
Posts
2,133 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Ed, snow and hurricane fan
-
Tomorrow evening's 0Z models will have data from a Hurricane Hunter w/ a ceiling of about 23,000 feet flying 'atmospheric rivers'/WCUSA Winter Storm mission. Or maybe they won't if resources don't permit. Mission is also tasked for 3/10/23 0Z model. -
Hurricane Hunters flying EPac 'atmospheric river' missions for 0Z data on the 9th and 10th. They might sample that while still offshore. 26,000 foot ceiling, they would be able to sample 500 mb level.
-
I think NE Ohio might be closer to New England than six days away, weather-wise.
-
In that spirit of Nostalgia, and something Weather Fella would remember, I was a grade school kid in Massapequa delivering the NY Daily News and remember the cold. 1977.
-
I had a Daily News paper route that year, and I remember the cold.
-
I wish. Latest HRRR is under a quarter inch IMBY. Off to watch happy or unhappy New Englanders contemplate the biggest snow of the year. Even the low end from the Euro pretty much matches the best BOS has had in a very un-snowy cold season. GFS is about 10 inches. One thing, a decade ago, a lot of people inside Route 128 posted, very few Boston area people post anymore. My grandmother lived in Quincy, I have an interest. I have an interest in Long Island/Metro NYC, they had a couple of inches of snow earlier in the week and nothing else. The last tiny snow did stop their all time snow futility record from being set.
-
Several runs of the HRRR have the storms coming E on I-10 from SAT magically poof inside an hour as they approach Houston. Latest radar makes me think poofing down here happens earlier than that. Storms on the S end of the line are weakening. We could have used the rain. Dry pattern down here developing.
-
Alamodome is the gym...
-
Dallas County tornado warning verified, I guess.
-
Damage near the LSU campus. I didn't even know LSU had a Shreveport campus. Several videos on Twitter.
-
Multi-Vortex on Brad Arnold's feed near Talco in Franklin County.
-
I assume Hall is real time on warnings, I could be wrong. He has a pretty fancy home studio with at least one met on Zoom or Google Meets. He can pick up chaser feeds.
-
Headed for/just N of Metroplex.
-
Unless Ryan Hall's warnings are delayed from realtime, there was TOG for almost 5 minutes before a warning.
-
Now there is.
-
Durant, OK is building its own doppler because of the distance to OUN and FWD, Just learned that watching Ryan Hall. https://www.kten.com/story/46075087/durant-radar-to-enhance-texoma-storm-warnings
-
Tornado warning in Stephens County, SW of Caddo.
-
18Z 3km NAM more interested in line from W 6-7pm, but does develop cells around (not quite in) the Metroplex next 30 minutes, and soundings 2500 J/Kg ML CAPE, 60 knots shear, TT of 57, 7C low level, 8C 700-500 mb, that seems like it'd support gorilla hail.
-
DFW airport is on the S side of the outflow now (2 pm) with ~20 mph S/SE winds. Not sure why nothing is developing S of the boundary yet, but the CINH on the 18Z sounding is gone, and SE 15-20 knots to SW 30 knots around 850 mb to SW 55 knots at 500 mb, that should produce.
-
Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes.
-
I suspect Kuchera products are generated by the weather model provider, not NCEP and the ECMWF, and may use slightly different algorithms to determine if something is falling as sleet, snow or rain, and thus will have different clowns. I could be wrong.
