IronTy

The radar doesn't show much but there's a continuous stream of heavy rain coming off the bay at my house in Calvert. It's been dumping all afternoon.

More importantly, we are getting some heavy wind gusts now. They have to occasionally be close to low end TS winds from time to time. Still heavy rain too.

This map definitely aged well.

Yup, got a soaking on my ride home from work. Even closed my windows and turned the heat on when I got home. Lotta wind and rain. Hopefully a harbinger to the winter.

Has that coastal storm feel out today. Pretty heavy rain right now and a decent onshore wind.

Rain and wind in Calvert right now. Got pretty wet driving my motorcycle to the gym and then work.

We've had this one creeping around our cabin the past few nights. Neighboring guys got a pic of an entire family with four cubs this week as well. Luckily they don't hunt bear, only deer.

Looks good to me, I'll take it. Just getting the winter pattern set up early.

A whole generation is growing up not knowing what a noreaster even is. The horror!

Yeah I drove up to the cabin for that storm and it was a nightmare on the roads. We had a solid foot from it though it melted pretty quick.

You know it's desperate when JB is limited to posts adding up the ACE points from last year.

JD foretold this possibility like a month ago and he was poo-pood. ETA - JB also woofing on 13-14 and something about analogue severe weather in Europe.

Pretty sure that map has already busted low at my house and it hasn't even been 24hrs since it was issued.

Up in the city for my wife's bday this weekend and was just out at crispus attucks for outdoor movie night and it's pretty gross out there. The moon is pretty cool though. Lots of mosquitoes. Looking forward to the front that's coming through this weekend.

Snow

Temps

WB has their first preview of winter forecast up. Basically for us it's average temps with slightly above average snowfall.

Turned on the heated floor in my bathroom for the first time since spring. With the cloud cover it's actually a bit chilly at times in the breeze, crazy for August.

I'm getting kind of pumped for this winter. The drastic change in the Atlantic is something we haven't seen in a while going back almost 20yrs. I think it's interesting that the greatest BN anomalies are basically right along the path of the Gulf stream going up the EC. This could be the beginning of our flip to the cold AMO which we've been missing since basically the late 1990s. Even with the Pacific in it's warm phase, having the Atlantic in the predominantly cold phase means we should have a much easier time lining up a cold phase in both basins. We could be looking at another 20+ years of Atlantic in the cold phase if it continues to cool and it's not just a fluke.

JD has a new posting about SSTs and.implications for winter: His summary so far: "Looking at years with a La Nada to weak La Nina, east QBO, negative PDO, negative MEI, positive AMO and declining solar, winter temperatures are cold."

JB has been griping about how the euro (non AI) can't see cold coming in the mid range for forever it seems. It does seem to have a problem, I mostly look at the GFS for the mid range now. If there ever was an application for AI it would seem to be weather forecasting so I hope that continues to improve.

Let's hope that warm pool migrates east toward Alaska like JD posted about a while ago.

Amazing to see the sudden step down that occured right at August. No complaints here.

Only wild card for me is the North Atlantic water temps. You have to go back to around 2015 to find BN anomalies this time of year like we have now. Remains to be seen how that looks in a few months, but it's something. GFS control has the NAO negative for the first half of September more or less. ETA - looking back to the 1980s I can't find an August with a similar north Pacific SST AN anom like we have now, it's almost unprecedented. 2023 had a sort of similar profile (yuck) but the SOI was completely flipped so I don't know if it's a valid analogue.

I'm watching the AMO. That sucker's going down at some point. Even before Erin it has shown cooling over the past year to my eyes. It's all coming together for a negative AMO and positive PDO....one of these years....