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csnavywx

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About csnavywx

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    slonec

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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. csnavywx
    Yeah, would need a turbo +AD/-AO to counter how well it's gone in the main basin so far this year. Probably not getting that until next year (post-peak Nino).
  2. csnavywx
    Was referring to hoping for a moderate Nino event initially. Quickly became evident in March that wasn't going to be the case.
  3. csnavywx
    This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).
  4. csnavywx
    The entire warm pool is being discharged. Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.
  5. csnavywx
    GLAAM just dropped from record highs to slightly above normal. I think we're at risk of ruthlessly extrapolating some short term mean reverting variability here. It's definitely coupled to the atmosphere. Hell, there's a standing wave set up in the tropical Pacific already.
  6. csnavywx
    It's such a beast that I really wouldn't worry too much about the other indices at this point. They tend to get drug along into resonance after a while.
  7. csnavywx
    It's possible. I'm kind of leaning that way this time since we're likely to get a fully coupled and canonical ('97-like) full warm pool discharge and it will take some time for that to recover.
  8. csnavywx
  9. csnavywx
    We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.
  10. csnavywx
    1997-98 comps and crayon drawers get nuked.
  11. csnavywx
    What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.
  12. csnavywx
    Let this be a lesson that the state and path dependency are more important than generally given credit for. Arguments about the spring barrier tended to discount this by default and also discount that these models have to parameterize certain calculations that end up biasing them *cold* on big honking tail events like this.
  13. csnavywx
    Sitting near/at record highs now.
  14. csnavywx
    It was quite cold and I enjoyed every minute of it. Reminded me of yesteryear winters a bit. Many thanks to the IO-Pac warm pool for that gem. I went for below normal temps the entire winter. Only thing that didn't pan out was above normal snow (even though we ended up with >3.0" frozen LWE). Upcoming winter should be even easier to forecast than that one was. In fact, if you have trouble with this upcoming winter, I'm not sure this hobby is for you. (Hint: If you're using the CANSIPS here, you're in for a big disappointment.)
  15. csnavywx
    UAH huggers are going to be in complete shambles in about 8 months. Gonna be really tough to explain that one away.
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