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csnavywx

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  1. csnavywx
    Some convergence from the guidance on a very early PV disruption this season, being driven by an absurd Urals-Scandanavian block. I'm taking this for the gift that it probably is for predictive skill: Seasons that have an early significant PV disruption like this usually have a second. Second, the westerly QBO has a tendency towards more a stable PV. So a vortex recovery into Dec with extreme warmth, then prob a mid-late season PV disruption again to round out the end of winter before flipping extremely warm again.
  2. csnavywx
    I agree Feb has the best chance of being cooler. Most of the caving is currently in the Jan window. I would expect something closer to what the BoM ensemble depicts.
  3. csnavywx
    The issue with using the CFSv2 at this time is that it is clearly having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. That's definitely going to have an effect on its forcing placement and one of the reasons we see it giving ground. Feb will likely end up warmer.
  4. csnavywx
    Big meh.
  5. csnavywx
    No surprise the CFS is having problems here. It's been having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope for a while now -- hence the reason it continues to underforecast Nino 1+2. Some of that may be related to the model's native climo, and/or a bias towards reverting towards stronger easterlies. This is particularly important for a very strong, very east-based event.
  6. csnavywx
    Day in and day out. Having a really hard time with holding onto elevated convection in setups like this. Decent instability gradient for them to ride down and shear improves this afternoon, so there's at least some chance this stuff makes it.
  7. csnavywx
    The recurring interesting question for me has been how far east the warm pool will make it. Max SSTs are now sitting at 170-140W, which puts it neatly and completely inside the 3.4 region (and only a few degrees off of as far east as it ever got in '97). Further movement towards the east will increasingly put max SSTs inside Nino 3 at the "expense" of 3.4. If it gets to say, 130W or 120W, cooling will enter 3.4 from the *west* and it may end up stalling 3.4 while still spiking Nino 3. TLDR: This event may get so east-based as to break the measurement benchmark and cause it to systematically understate the event.
  8. csnavywx
    Subsurface moving back up in response. Surface should follow over the next several days. 1997-98 did not reach this level until mid-Oct. Any forecast that has us close to 82/83 or 97/98 at this point isn't really viable without a significant increase in trades *now*.
  9. csnavywx
    We've tapped the brakes here on the subsurface (peaking in the short run around +10-11C) as the trades temporarily recovered a bit, but the recent very strong WWB plus a migration of the standing wave towards 160W over the next ~10d should put the pedal back to the metal. CFSv2 forecasts are just playing catch-up on fully integrating the effects of wind stress and should bottom out here in the next week or so before crawling back up.
  10. csnavywx
    No reason to think this train pauses before printing some 1.8-2.0 months.
  11. csnavywx
    Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.
  12. csnavywx
    That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w
  13. csnavywx
    Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere.
  14. csnavywx
    I'll add on a bit here and say that the Arctic is much warmer now than in these events (especially post-2007). Quality of source region air is not going to be the same. If 1877-78 and the Great Nino of 1788-93 had trouble getting it to work, I'm not sure the baseline expectation here should be much different. The sample size here for these extreme Ninos is tiny ofc, so it is unlikely we have sampled the extent of the distribution but if these events (and the 1600s Nino) are any indication, we should probably not discount how fat the right (warm) tail is here.
  15. csnavywx
    Someone needs to convince them to just start using the EC-AIFS alongside this. The initialization, bias and skill score improvements are too good not to.
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