csnavywx

Did ya'll enjoy your trip to Dubai yesterday? The pics of that dust wall gave me Persian Gulf flashbacks.

Got smoked here at Pax. Lotta 55+kt wind gusts (64kt/74mph peak) and 1/2" hail. Lasted about 10-15 minutes.

Nice supercell split to the NW of DC. There's an old outflow boundary (and a bay breeze!) to the east that could spell some trouble if those begin to interact with it.

On geologic timeframes, I agree we're in the last act. It's no longer even possible to get a snowball scenario now, insolation is already too high. The drawdown in GHGs over the last ~300-500Mya has mostly neatly offset the increase in insolation over time but that parameter space is now limited on the downside. I would venture a guess that current continental drift resulting in another supercontinent+2-3% insolation puts temps well above Eocene levels and ends the golden age of habitability. In either the short or long run, if you pancake the ETP temp gradient with either GHGs or insolation, you kill off most marine life during the transition. If it happens quickly enough, then you can end up with Canfield oceans -- which I would describe as a weird form of undeath (purple water and green atmosphere from euxinic conditions). In the very short run, we're extremely close (450ppm) to tipping over in the Southern Ocean with regards to ocean acidification causing widespread aragonite undersaturation, what I would consider the first step in that process.

Dangerous risk of termination shock and unexpected circulation changes. But I do think it will be done anyways.

Planck feedback/response stops any sort of Venusian runaway on this planet. Would take much higher insolation to get us there. Much more worried about plant and/or soil carbon stock turning unstable at current temperatures. It's been showing signs the last few years, esp with large emissions from respiration. South America and southern Africa in particular do not seem to be taking it well. Some of this is probably due to monsoon trough migration via differential hemispheric heating and boosted non-CO2 warming recently from aerosols and higher-than-trend CH4, causing a lopsided NH response. But if the Amazon and southern African tropical sinks can no longer provide a brake, then that will cause an immediate and relatively strong increase in the airborne fraction.

Isn't there a pretty well documented increase in C/EPac trade winds over the last 40+y? I'd think that (plus the aerosol pattern effect) would have a pretty drastic effect on SST patterns and the downstream Pac climate indices. Also probably can't get away from the insane post-2020 NPac/NAtl warming (N Hem in general) and the effect it's already having on the position of the ITCZ/monsoon trough via response to differential warming.

Actually really like this setup for some semi-discrete or discrete cellular activity (as shown by the NAM). While the best forcing goes north with the surface low and south with some trailing mid-level forcing and better cape, there is still some forcing for vertical motion here and some weak capping with halfway decent CAPE. Could be just enough to suppress crapvection and allow for more discrete activity to thrive, esp towards/just after sunset.

TRACC/CMIP-6 is already behind the curve: On full blast from here with Med shipping sulfur emission controls taking effect this year.

The fact that this comment by JP didn't get more press is really fucking alarming. He's basically telling you what's going to happen to the housing market and by extension -- the economy, in the future.

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

Ended with: 1.5"-2.5" (north to south) at KNHK. 2.7" at house, 4.5" at Ridge and 6" at Pt. Lookout entrance. High ratio fluff with a very impressive accumulation gradient.

Took a little drive down to Ridge and Pt. Lookout after the road crews went through. 4.5" in Ridge and 6.0" at Pt. Lookout entrance. Very fluffy, high ratio stuff. Very sharp gradient!

Insanely sharp gradient here. 1.5" on north side of KNHK, 2.0 on the station itself and nearly 3" on the south side of the base and at my house. Bet Pt. Lookout to SBY ends up somewhere over 5"

Can only imagine what this sucker could've produced with a full phase. Ah well -- we've got the next 3-4 weeks and hopefully a weak +ENSO/-AO year to play with next year.