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csnavywx

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About csnavywx

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    slonec

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    KNHK
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    Lexington Park, MD

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  1. csnavywx
    We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.
  2. csnavywx
    1997-98 comps and crayon drawers get nuked.
  3. csnavywx
    What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.
  4. csnavywx
    Let this be a lesson that the state and path dependency are more important than generally given credit for. Arguments about the spring barrier tended to discount this by default and also discount that these models have to parameterize certain calculations that end up biasing them *cold* on big honking tail events like this.
  5. csnavywx
    Sitting near/at record highs now.
  6. csnavywx
    It was quite cold and I enjoyed every minute of it. Reminded me of yesteryear winters a bit. Many thanks to the IO-Pac warm pool for that gem. I went for below normal temps the entire winter. Only thing that didn't pan out was above normal snow (even though we ended up with >3.0" frozen LWE). Upcoming winter should be even easier to forecast than that one was. In fact, if you have trouble with this upcoming winter, I'm not sure this hobby is for you. (Hint: If you're using the CANSIPS here, you're in for a big disappointment.)
  7. csnavywx
    UAH huggers are going to be in complete shambles in about 8 months. Gonna be really tough to explain that one away.
  8. csnavywx
    Given how the following month went in pumping all of that WWV eastward and the sheer amount of momentum transfer into the thermocline, I will make the following statement: Never short sell synoptically obvious events.
  9. csnavywx
    It's a nice theory, but there's reason to believe cooling caused by tropical volcanic eruptions actually help weaken trades over the WPac: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171003111101.htm So it's debatable whether that Nino even happens in the first place, or if it does, to that degree.
  10. csnavywx
    Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways. Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started.
  11. csnavywx
    Been in these shoes before. Can't turn your back on em til it's truly over -- even if the front half is a flop.
  12. csnavywx
    Lol, lmao even. SPECI KDCA 170112Z 31037G59KT 5SM -RA BR SQ FEW016 BKN021 OVC037 08/06 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 30059/0112 WSHFT 0052 RAB06 PRESRR P0000 T00830056 $
  13. csnavywx
    Filtered sun again and that line missed me to the north. The watch getting canx'd here is almost begging to be punched in the stomach by the front this evening. 300-600 cape into 500-700 helicity should be good enough for a few mini-supers, imo -- so long as we are indeed done with this overturning crap.
  14. csnavywx
    Virtually all of the LSRs are confined up on the Piedmont and mountains to the west/southwest. Makes sense, because that was the only area that got a chance to destabilize a bit before the crapvection-driven overturning got going. Consolation prize is that it's killing the line off completely to the south, so there might be a chance for the cold front this evening to have a bit of something to work with.
  15. csnavywx
    Needs a lot more helicity with this low amount of buoyancy. There's a narrow window this evening before the cold front, but you'd have to stop bombarding the warm sector with this low grade overturning for it to work. This is why capping is so important. You have it or you get this nonsense.
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