Bigger problem with going very cold is that the 850s stall or begin to rise overnight. I think the HRRR is reasonable with single digits in the traditionally cooler spots and low teens at BWI/DCA.
The cold in the northern plains in 1996 rivaled or surpassed 1994. In the days of the old wind chill charts we were in the -60 to -80 range. Just obscene -20 for a high stuff. https://www.weather.gov/arx/cold_feb96
Will be interesting to see what DCA records. This is usually a bad setup for them with temps still at 34, but nighttime helps. I think we get on the board, taking the shutout off the table.
The simple answer is that the Apps both help us and hurt us for ice storms. We tend to get smaller events due to cold-air damming, but unless there is a really significant cold air outbreak (see 1994), we don't get that clash of straight-from-Canada cold and return moisture from the Gulf.
'97/'98 is interesting. BWI recorded snowfall in Dec, Jan and Mar for a 3.2" total. IAD had snow in Dec, Jan, Feb for 5.9". And yet, DCA ends up with 0.1" of pity snowfall in December.