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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Frequency diagram of max yearly temps at DCA. 98 is the most common. 28/82 years (34%) have reached 100 degrees. However, it is streaky with a couple of 7+ year streaks without 100 degrees in the historical record.
  2. MN Transplant
    We had so many of these kinds of days in 2010-12. Probably as our penance for the 2009-10 winter.
  3. MN Transplant
    Just got to 90 at home. Looks like the airports are all around 91.
  4. MN Transplant
    Clipped with 0.11” yesterday. Clouds aren’t a problem this morning. Sterling is being aggressive and going for 100 at DCA.
  5. MN Transplant
    Yup, right around 7 corners.
  6. MN Transplant
    Hopefully the storms coming that way hold together.
  7. MN Transplant
    Climo report DCA: 96 BWI: 97 IAD: 98 (tied record)
  8. MN Transplant
    I was being facetious, but I am surprised by the difference between my house and the airports. My max is 93.0 today. I’m not usually 5 behind IAD, so that may be the dry soil there helping out.
  9. MN Transplant
    So, do we hit 90 today? 83.9
  10. MN Transplant
    Euro has corrected down to 96/97. I haven’t been bullish on this heat wave in terms of chances for 100 and I remain that way. It takes a rare airmass for 100.
  11. MN Transplant
    I'm thinking 96/97 for all three days at DCA. Just a touch under what NWS is going (98/98/98).
  12. MN Transplant
    The custom map does this well. 4" around Burke indeed. The range across our region is amazing.
  13. MN Transplant
    There has been a discussion elsewhere about the GFS long range having trouble with surface temps because it is drying out the surface too quickly and the boundary layer schemes are having a hard time as it goes further into the forecast period. I'm skeptical that KC mixes to 600mbs and goes superadiabatic near the surface.
  14. MN Transplant
    That was a good one. Coldest month at IAD since Feb 1979.
  15. MN Transplant
    My contest entry depends on DCA underperforming. Feeling pretty good with the IAD drought and the BWI pavement.
  16. MN Transplant
    Kudos to the meso models, they had this 2nd round
  17. MN Transplant
    Radar estimates look like a nice hit in the dry spots in central MD
  18. MN Transplant
    2010-2012 really skewed what the perception of hot is. For example, 100s are really uncommon, and are often clustered. So every year has less than a 20% chance of hitting that mark.
  19. MN Transplant
    This is where I again complain that we got 8” of snow near the Pentagon and it immediately started melting when the sun came up. That one actually ends up on my dud list. Now Feb 2014 had some rates in the overnight hours.
  20. MN Transplant
  21. MN Transplant
    Quite the event up in PA and NY. Some radar estimates of 10”+ in PA and West Point in NY got 7” in 3 hours.
  22. MN Transplant
    You should easily be able to prove that with precipitation totals.
  23. MN Transplant
    Also could be called confirmation bias where you only remember the cases that fit your ideas. The better dynamics were always north today. Fredericksburg is missing out too, but isn’t in the DC beltway. 0.14” of pedestrian rainfall today pushing my total to 3.64” for July.
  24. MN Transplant
    The inside the DC beltway areas have been hit pretty well this week. It just isn’t happening today.
  25. MN Transplant
    The writing on the wall for anything interesting was a couple of days ago. The line near Dulles is now kicking out an outflow boundary, so we'll see where that takes us.
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