MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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They will be launching the balloon from Dulles in a few minutes. We’ll get the results in 45-60 min. The SPC mesoanalysis page has a model-derived estimate of the upper air structure right now. 850s are a problem (more than 700 or 925). I’m guessing there is even a worse layer in there above 850.
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No, it is a better tool when there is one distinct transition. This is a mess.
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Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet
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The NAM was terrible from 3 days out.
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3k is a sleet event right from the start in DC. 1” qpf.
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The 850 temp change from 09z to 12z are...not entirely believable.
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Legit snorted. HRRR continues to look ok for DC. All snow through 14z with sleet knocking on the door, but heavy precip.
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Weather boards. Serious business. 33.8 and a very pleasant day out there. Snow board is set up and ready for some sort of precipitation.
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~0.4” QPF from 11-13z at DCA on the 18z 3k NAM
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The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow.
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The trough axis at that point is in the central Plains. While we do pop a surface low in the right spot, this is not a good setup for an all-snow event for our region, no matter what the year is.
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The 12z HRRR is sure a pick-me-up.
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24.0. Mostly sunny.
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FYI - the total precip at DCA for the Valentines 2007 sleet bomb was 1.06”. So, this is right in that ballpark.
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Something is falling at DCA
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2021 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
MN Transplant replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Our neighborhood crocus house has a bunch up, but everything is definitely later than last year. -
That’s the run we’ve been impatiently waiting for.
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It looks like 12z was a weird blip. Check this out.
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While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show. DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period.
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Well, here's your relevant NAM trend
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3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z. While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear).
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NAM is going to have a big win, or go down with the ship, it appears.
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And I have 7" to show for it. The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.
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I think we can do it. Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019). 10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else.
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Ha. It has been a bit since we've been that cold.
