MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after.
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Better than 12z
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We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run.
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I got 3”. Nobody likes to talk about March 2013, but that is another forum divider.
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Different model runs. Conclusion still valid, though.
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Had to!
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Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive
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We lose the column below 850 at DCA at the 21z and 00z panels, but certainly better than the mesoscale models.
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My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
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I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.
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Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.
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You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.
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We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one.
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Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega
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Here we go.
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I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens.
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It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.
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My obs are almost always better than DC proper. I think 35 and rain is probably more likely, though.
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TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing.
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We are always going to be in big trouble along 95 with an 850 track that goes from central VA to the Delaware Bay per the Euro. Especially early in the season w/o cold air everywhere. The GFS is much more friendly in that regard with a Williamsburg to east of DE track.
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Snow maps are almost completely useless. The GFS “hit” from earlier is like 3” in DC.
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Good news remains that it is full of moisture. 1.5"-1.9" through most of MD and N. VA.
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