NorthHillsWx

This is setting up like a classic major winter storm. Been a long time coming. The cold air this has to work with is significantly better than we’re used to with a lot of miller As so, freezing rain might be a bigger issue than normal. From experience though, that freezing rain area will shrink and sleet will become more of a factor. Also if this thing forms a deformation band, they frequently cool the column through rates and you end up with heavy snow in areas progged as a mix a few days out. Lots of words to say: im not buying a massive ice storm in the Carolinas if this is a coastal bomb. Lots to iron out but it is now looking likely (>70%) that central/western NC and most of Virginia will have a significant winter storm. Track will be key as always. We want a slower system still.

How waking up this morning felt after yesterdays models

I’ll take a sleet bomb. Just keep us out of what happened in the first storm this year

I’ve been shoveling digital snow since Christmas

Big dog pattern. Everyone sees it. Pretty special setup, doesn’t mean we’ll score but it’s been a long time

Is @eyewall in? It’s been awhile

The best thing about that is it’s not a northwest trend. It’s becoming a perfect low track. It’s just juicing up and cooling down so more of the forum gets snow. What a freaking look

I’ll cash out

We’ll take that bet

MA forum will meltdown over that GFS run. 20” in Va Beach, 0” in DC

I think every model has trended positively this afternoon!!!

GFS is a big NC hit. Trends are our friend today folks!!!

We just spent two full days below 40 degrees and looks like that will happen again next week. Not saying it cancels out the warm start but this is impressive cold, we haven’t seen cold air like this in February in many years

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=7

GEFS is a beautiful look

This is a really strong winter storm signal. That is all.

With all that being said, the ICON, GFS, and CMC were all colder than their previous runs and all had major winter storms for central NC. CMC and ICON are even more expansive winter storms, but are both trash models

It just wants to snow in Virginia this year. DC-Fredericksburg has had a banner year for a Nina

If you’re referring to 12z yesterday then yes but it is colder than 0z with much more snow even here in triangle where we didn’t have any at 0z

Canadian wasn’t warmer. It’s acceptable. 24+ hour storm

CMC with a 1052 dropping into the dakotas lol

If the GFS slows down 12 hours that’s a snowstorm for NC, not ice. Track is good

GFS looks like it will be a major winter storm for the northern half of NC into VA. Big improvements. Still too fast

GFS gonna be colder. Looks more amped so far

I may be wrong, but amped might be better here given the airmass north of the storm. Assuming amped doesn’t bring it inland, the more amped solutions seem to be pulling cold air in more efficiently vs the strung out solutions. All I’ll say about the southern jet and I’ve been saying this for a few days, this is a big dog pattern