NorthHillsWx

For those just stopping by I can save you pages of reading: The cliff diving page being hot is all you need to know about “happy hour”

I’m legitimately worried the battleground sets up in Virginia and we’re fighting for 32 degrees so the lights stay on

With that storm track I’d be shocked if it didn’t go to regular old cold rain Raleigh-east

Yep. I’m gonna lay off for the night and see if anything trends back in our favor by morning. Feels like we lost it today, only model holdout is the GFS. Can buy a phase for 7 years then get one that costs us everything. We’ve seen trends reverse but problem here is the north trend has accelerated

It’s gonna get ugly in here. The excitement started way too early. It’s still over 3 days out

Euro brings the mix line almost to DC. Discount it if you want but this storm has mega bust potential if these trends continue. Like that doesn’t even snow until the border. I’m shocked it jumped that far north and would hope it’s done but my goodness that’s two huge north jumps in a row for the king

The holdouts staring at 10:1 maps including ZR will keep the hope alive, but this is and has always been Virginias storm.

Yea Euro is almost 100% an ice event

Euro is ugly. At 18z every piece of guidance trended north. Every model.

GFS AI was way north

Need the north trends to stop but it’s Tuesday. We gotta remember this is still way too far out there for conclusions

I have to keep reminding myself that the gfs is a terrible model but…

Yea but I only got 20” places just northwest of me got over a foot more! We just can’t win, sigh

That might be the most absurd run ever at any timeframe for NC

Approaching 3” QPF in piedmont NC. All frozen. Epic

This run is epic

GFS says you gotta smell the sleet to jackpot. Plausible on that front

If we stay all frozen we will pass the assignment (6”). There’s so much QPF it might be 4” snow 4” of sleet. That’s a major passing grade with temps around 20

Gfs wetter and more amped but just a tick north. Actually colder at surface in most of NC.

This feels like watching a slow motion car wreck you knew was gonna happen…

Idk, looks further north to me

One other fail mode to watch for- if this is a miller B and there is a transfer to the coast there will likely be a dry slot that sets up during the process

This is the stage in tracking where initial expectations can be set. If you live north of Va line your expectation should be all snow and possibly heavy amounts. For most of NC chances are high you mix at some point so determining timing, degree of mixing, and if you go all the way to ZR will be critical. For SC and Georgia this looks like a ZR storm. Maybe the upstate can score on the initial WAA or the wedge is cold enough for sleet. Worried about further north trends with thermals. I’ve seen models throw out 6-8 hour thumps of snow just for NAM to come in and cut that time in a third. Something to watch. Those are my thoughts at this point

If we got 2”+ QPF with temps less than 28 throughout and less than 6” frozen this would be an epic epic fail

I think the crippling ice storm following it is sitting on everyone’s minds taking the wind out the sails. Also the thought of the NAM driving that warm nose to the Virginia line after 3 hours is likely on everyone’s mind in this setup