NorthHillsWx

In his/her defense, if we had 2 snowless seasons in a row, some here would be contemplating a similar drive

Weenie of the year (decade?) award goes to...

Can't wait for the first cliff diver to step over the edge after that GFS run

I have become too emotionally involved in tomorrow's storm for my own good. Please bring me back down to Earth, people of the sanitarium!

Well, the EPS certainly is trending better today. That's best news with this system yet.

Not too shabby

For the first time since this "threat" showed up on models, I have allowed myself to dream of glory (measurable snow lol) imby. Now I have officially opened myself up for disappointment. It's a vicious cycle in the South...

That is a snow sounding all day. Hi-res models will sniff that out when they get in range. Key is seeing a N/W expansion of precip trending over time.

Bottom line after today's runs is that a coastal low appears to be our best chance now and coastal lows do have a tendency to trend NW. Modeling will bounce around for the next few days but the players have entered the field from all camps and we are finally able to track something inside 4 days. Not every run is going to be better than the last one but I'd say overall the trends today have been encouraging. Obviously the CMC, which had a beautiful run last night, wasn't as good but it still had the same idea. Starting to see agreement 4 days out which to me is as good as we could ask for in this timeframe.

I think you will be able to tell the state of the Thurs system entirely based on whether this thread turns "hot" after the 12Z model runs tomorrow

I would not say it was more suppressed. The LP location remained nearly identical, if not a tick further North, but the precip was not nearly as expansive. All things considered, still not a bad run imho.

Also, the 12Z CMC cut back the northern extent of the precip area somewhat but otherwise remained mostly unchanged from 00Z. Still same setup and general idea. Not really sure why it scaled the precip back as much as the vort max and formulative LP appeared to be a hair further north than the previous run.

Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations.

WRAL is next-level conservative when it comes to forecasting snow. Usually the correct approach being they are based firmly behind the Raleigh snow shield

I'm not even going to entertain the theory of hope... I know I will get blanked this season. Damn you ICON and CMC, damn you!!!

26 at the house this morning. Thinking we'll bottom out around 24 which, sadly, will make this a tie for second coldest night of the season here

Overnight runs stuck a fork in this system. EURO has a heck of a coastal storm at the end of the run. Too bad the freezing line is in Canada...

I know there are years where RDU got blanked, but has there been an entire winter season where no measurable snow was recorded in the entire forecast area? Furthermore, has there even been a season where the Raleigh NWS didn't issue a single winter weather product throughout? We may be in rare territory here

The NAM crushed it on the last event. Euro saw it but the NAM locked it in. Every now and then a blind squirrel finds a nut

Only thing with HP's that strong is what we're seeing with such a weak system: suppression

That is a big, glorious HP. I forgot what they look like

START A THREAD! lol some short range models have an area of precip coming in from the NE, oddly, after midnight tonight

POTD!

Got down to 38 this morning. Picked up 0.76" yesterday for a "storm total" of 1.08" last 3 days. That band of showers brought some really heavy rain when it first moved in

After we get through the disappointment of next week's rain, I think we can all move to spring mode