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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    0.5“-0.75” and “scattered” outages...
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Imo no. 850s +5-7 seems too warm for sleet. 925’s are marginally conducive for sleet and i think that’s what the NAM is catching, but south of the va border looks like a freezing rain event to me with limited sleet
  3. NorthHillsWx
    12k keeps a large area of sleet through the storm. Could be the saving grace
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Currently 45.4 and DP of 24, both down a degree since last time I checked about and hour ago.
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Flash flood watch. Now I’m positive that will verify
  6. NorthHillsWx
    I will promise you this: if precip holds off in any area until much after 12z, that area will not receive an ice storm, lol
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Biggest reason why is it keeps almost all precip west through 12-15z. Verbatim, Raleigh wouldn’t even see steady precip until around 15z. No wet bulbing east of precip
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Also, don’t declare this storm a bust if fringe counties (mecklenburg, wake people, looking at you!) don’t get much of any ice. This has always been a triad/Virginia border storm, north. Models trends put those on the south sides of the warning areas in play, but stopped before we were ever really in the game, minus a run or two. Overall, same areas we flagged for a major ice storm 2 days ago look to be in for a major ice storm...
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Looking forward to your pictures. Your drone pics have become a highlight of every post-storm day here!
  10. NorthHillsWx
    1) Models always underestimate a wedge to some degree 2) models always try to kick out a wedge too fast to some degree 3) when making a CAD forecast, real time dew points and temps matter more than anything. Watch that then factor in 1 and 2 4) this is not a rapidly retreating high and not an apps runner. This wedge should have lasting power. Only thing I can figure would be heavy rates able to warm it from above given the hot 850’s, but that will be difficult to forecast until game time. Light rates and I don’t think that impacts this as much
  11. NorthHillsWx
    Some people never learn
  12. NorthHillsWx
    This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Sounds like a broken record today but 18z GFS continues to trend colder and further south with freezing rain.
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out
  15. NorthHillsWx
    This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so
  16. NorthHillsWx
    1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did
  17. NorthHillsWx
    This is shaping up to be a devastating ice event for someone in the Triad
  18. NorthHillsWx
    12k NAM very similar to the last run overall. No significant changes imo. Maybe a hair colder
  19. NorthHillsWx
    HR 42 and pretty much the border north is sleet. Some sleet even down into the northern triad. Definitely positive trends for those areas. Freezing line looks to line up about with the current watch package
  20. NorthHillsWx
    NAM dew points are much Lower Thursday 03z than the 12z run. Teens and low 20’s to the border. That’s going to lock in a wedge with wet bulbs
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Thanks. This SLP track is one we’ve seen many times produce the Carolina mixed bag of snow/sleet/zr. The warm 850’s in this setup create the fly in the ointment. They are anomalous for a slp track such as this
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Eric Webb (@webberweather) Tweeted: Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs. Yea, this trend can stop now... #ncwx https://t.co/u1Kt7P0aNS
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Wasn’t he the one yesterday saying models and were trending away from an ice storm and the threat was diminishing?
  24. NorthHillsWx
    I would, personally, if the decision had to be made today.
  25. NorthHillsWx
    EURO was definitely cooler for almost all areas from 0z. One thing to note is timing of precip on Thursday means much will fall in daylight. EURO seems to notice that and nips the 32 line but brings it right back after 18z. Daylight and sun angle may help some of the marginal areas during this event
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