NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Do not click on the 00z euro, just don’t do it. It’s a flaming dumpster fire run if there ever was one
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06z GFS trended significantly colder with the late week system and also is much quicker in getting the arctic air in afterwards
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Really hate to say it but we may have to punt till after next weekend, again. 4-5 day cool down then SE ridge reappears. Good night please give me something better to look forward to in the morning
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Back to hour 200+ cold on gfs, what could go wrong
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70’s in N.C. next Friday
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Ouch. SE ridge through 186 on gfs is stout
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I’m expecting a drought at this point. Said it last week when everything was pointing to extended cold: I was as excited for the next two weeks of winter as I could remember. Now I’m still waiting a week for cold that may never show. Sheesh!
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With this output and we likely end up without a flake
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I’m back!!!
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Yep. The cold seemed like a certainty for days. We may not even get that lmao
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After this winter the Euro has been dethroned. I never remember it being as wishy washy inside day 6 as it was between 0z and 12z today in the past. Something about this pattern throws it off
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Rules in the south: 1) arctic air is ALWAYS over modeled 2) arctic air is ALWAYS slower to arrive than modeled
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Hate to say it, but we now have 6 days to reel this one back in. Knew it was too good to be even 1/100th true. That SE ridge just shuns the arctic air. Obviously still a ton of time for it to change but there are now very valid reason to believe we rain several times with places west of the apps going below zero. Gut punch today. So is life in the south
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EURO and EPS folding to GFS and it’s ensembles for the 138th time this winter
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Never, ever, ever doubt a warm nose on the NAM. It may not be correct this time, but that model was made for sniffing them out
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Pretty liberal use of the term “crush job”
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Raleigh’s point forecasts until day of are about as useful as a bag of bricks in a lifeboat in terms of timing and specifics
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One thing about this storm is wet bulb will not help. Dew points going in are too high. It will be purely a dynamic cooling situation. Without rates, you will not approach freezing, and snow will not stick. I think the northern piedmont and triad is in the game to see snow fall but I seriously doubt if anyone gets more than a dusting in this set up. No antecedent cold air, little evaporative cooling, warm nose quickly moves in. Not being a downer but that’s just how I see it
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Pretty much draw a line from dry fork to hickory north and west is where I’d expect accumulation. Rate driven snows that can add up but won’t be a large area of heavy accumulation. I’d say a C-2” for that area with some pockets of 3-4.” NAM sleet profiles should have everyone’s attention as well. The upstate relies on a quick hitting front end thump and those are notoriously hard to predict. BL temps are not your friend nor is frozen event duration.
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You’re in the sweet spot. Jealous.
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Poor Heels... as a Clemson alum and having won 3 of the last 4 over them, I think we can declare ourselves a better basketball school
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They aren’t even borderline rains either. GFS has us (Raleigh) near 70 on Friday. In fact, it fails to ever break containment over the mountains with the arctic air. In one frame, it’s below 0 through West Virginia and above freezing in central NC. I’m siding with terrible model
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Good thing it’s on an island.
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Absolutely no run to run variability on the gfs op. Nothing to see here, move along
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Yesterday at 12z the euro had snow in savannah and today it had ice through North Carolina. Yes it trended better for a winter storm this run but it and it’s ensembles all trended faster and much more northwest and warmer. Would not take much to catch up to the GFS. It’s so early in the game it’s not panic time but another day of this is going to drive up my anxiety
