NorthHillsWx

I hung in there a little longer than than I should have, but was just wasting my time. Till next year

I’m throwing in the towel ladies and gents. I’m sure we’ll see a light glaze of ice in Raleigh from one of these impulses but I don’t see a warning level event IE something worth my time and effort to track happening. Time to live in whining thread

It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run

GFS says enjoy 33-35 and rain, repeat, repeat, repeat for the triangle

It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night

ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm

That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too

Cold air is not going to get here. Can’t wish it here. We’re done. Over, finished

I’m excited for the next 4 cold rain events

Anyone taking the dramatic warming shown on this run as gospel has not lived here long. Wedges ALWAYS stick around longer and are stronger than forecast. The density of the cold air and our geographic orientation make it almost impossible to dislodge that airmass especially with precip falling into it. A couple weeks ago our highs were forecast in the mid 60’s but most of us stayed in mid 40’s through the day. It can definitely warm enough to change to liquid and not freezing rain, but it ain’t getting out of the mid 30’s triangle north and west in this setup

That’s insane. Our rain isn’t even cold at that point

No, much colder

That’s not a bad look from the mean at all if you want a CAD wintry event

UK is rain for triangle

Verbatim the triangle would have a glacier on the ground if this solution played out

CMC depicts a nice snowstorm on Tuesday. Slightly colder mid levels. I think in these situations it tends to under sample warm noses so that may end up being a very gfs-like run in reality

It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar

Yea, but wind doesn’t stress a tree in the same manner. It doesn’t prune them like ice weight does. Any weakness will be exposed, particularly pines, but hardwoods will drop a lot of branches as well. Definitely a concern given the time period since our last significant ice event

Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately

ICON is an ice disaster

I was living in Alexandria Virginia for several years and we’d been forecast to get a crippling ice storm but got like 4-6” of mostly sleet. “Drifts” where it bounced off roofs stayed for more than a month even as we went into March and for a week afterwards it felt like a glacier

I kinda hope one of these storms turns into a 2” sleet storm and below freezing. That much sleet is pretty cool, and surprisingly not that difficult to drive in. Plus it sticks around forever

GFS takes 2 slp centers east of hatteras in a near perfect track, and we can’t buy modeled snow from either

Jake Bentley is still gonna take y’all to the playoff just you wait... I regress, no need for that pettiness. We’re all beat down by the 00z suite

Easy to rain when the cold never makes it east of the mountains