NorthHillsWx

Welp. I’ll take South Carolina football fans’ approach to every season: there’s always next year

It worked according to the gfs

Praying for ice #2020/21

Positive trends stabilized. We’ll see what tomorrow brings

First take on 0z guidance: Meh...

Most winter storm potential in 3 years and I just know we do nothing but rain in Raleigh. Everything has to be perfect and then we can still fail

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island

Observations from today: 1) a light to moderate icing event is becoming more likely Thursday night into Friday mainly from favored CAD regions northward 2) a more substantial storm is possible late weekend/early next week. Could be more widespread Likely to be another mixed bag event 3) it is becoming more likely arctic air will move in for the second half of the weekend through early next week but timing differences remain 4) several shots at precipitation next week could lead to more threats down the road, but these will be almost impossible to iron out until the arrival of the arctic air mass is determined

Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range

Is there any guidance that hasn’t trended colder today? EURO, NAM, CMC, ICON, GFS have all trended colder and significantly so in most cases

Excellent post. Thanks

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied.

Major winter storm incoming

Well 186 is as textbook a winter storm look as you could get. Perfect 1044 placement and developing gulf low.

That is, umm, a cold look for the Carolinas

EURO at 174 has a 1046 HP over the GL and a gulf low. Likely going to be a suppressed solution but I’ll take that look a week out

I remember sleeping 6 nights next to the fireplace with my family and having to shower at a friends house. No damage at our house but took weeks to clean up fallen trees at our farm in Franklin county. Also remember it snowing to begin that storm and sticking from the first flake. Must have been very cold leading up to it

I just want to verify a winter storm warning this winter. Be it ice or snow, bring it on! Also, if I’m getting ice in Raleigh, you’re likely getting sleet or snow in Winston Salem. Win-win

Well, some people on this board may have been a bit too quick to press the “cancel” button on this winter from today’s 12z suite so far. That’s all I’ll say. Many, many more runs to go but Friday through next week gives us some pretty awesome potential. Not saying we’ll get a flake or ice pellet but winter most definitely looks to be alive and well

Is it bad to say I kind of want an ice storm? It’s been so long since we had one in Raleigh that amounted to anything other than a nuisance event. Definitely helps I have a generator that’s been sitting unused for 3 years

Friday has legs imo. Won’t be a snowstorm but potentially a disruptive winter event if modeling trends continue. Most of us had written it off but it’s trended colder and colder for a couple days now.

GFS gives Houston consecutive hits from sleet and freezing rain. Wow

GFS trended much colder with the stronger weekend system as well

Definitely the signal for a mixed precip event Friday. These CAD storms tend to trend colder as time goes on. Definitely getting interesting