MarkO

Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove

Hmm,well the American models just made things interesting with their latest run with an 990 mb low in the GOM. Might have to make some changes to the Thanksgiving Day travels.

The CMC and Reggie are consistent with the potential for 4-8" in the mountains, at least enough to cover the ground and make for some travel headaches.

I'veheard a fire is threatening Butternut. Anyone know the details?

I thought about it, but it's a 45 minute drive each way and only 1 open run.

I think Waterville has a contract with the US bordercross team for early season training. I'm sure they're funding at least part of the bill for the early season snowmaking, the BBTS ski school probably chips in a little too. I think it's kind of a win/win, but they don't open up the trails on High Country to season pass holders which kinda sucks. I've wondered why, for many years, that they didn't take advantage of the altitude of the base elevation of the High Country lift at about 3450'.

Last time I checked, the north ridge cam showed snow on the ground, lol. But anyway's small window and many warm days ahead. I hope Killington can pull off the FIS race for Thanksgiving weekend.

I gotta give Waterville credit. They're going poundtown while Killington looks on. Made a couple turns. Day 1 is in the books. https://www.waterville.com/cams-summit

Love all the photo's and vid's of people earning their turns in VT where near a foot fo snow fell above about 3000'

Lots of Punta Gorda under water now. Another couple of feet to go.

Have they announced landfall yet? Looks just north of Siesta Key.

Port Charlotte probably going to get the worst of the surge.

Considering the water is about 4' above normal at the Cape Coral gauge, I'd suspect we might start to see some storm surge in the next hour or so in Sarasota: Hazcams mobile 5-Sarasota, FL: https://livestormchasing.com/

Helpful tool to give you an idea of potential storm surge: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/

Fortunately, it appears shear and dry air are weakening the system, along with a possible eyewall replacement. It also appears from radar that winds along the west coast of Florida are likely coming out of a southeast direction and not piling up surge along the majority of the FL coast. But once those winds turn northerly, some of those bays are going to start filling up and/or preventing tides from leaving the bays. Still some concern for the surge between Ft. Myers and Sarasota, but TB/St. Pete may luck out once again. Of course this depends upon the final track. A northerly jog now followed by an easterly one still needs to be watched.

Just checked some of the elevations in the coastal Sarasota area. Much of it is below 10'. Considering the density of the population, this could be more costly than Ian. Hopefully it has time to weaken to a Cat 3.

Last few satellite frames are very impressive with the eye symmetry. Central pressure is probably back into the upper 800's.

New eye formed to the west of the former on radar. It'll be interesting to see what it does overnight.

Flightaware has it entering the eye now.

Those satellite images are impressive. Perfect circular eye. Likely still intensifying. This next update will be interesting. Could the central pressure be in the 800's?

Looking very impressive on latest satellite images. Likely a Cat 5 now.

Anyone know Cedar Key made out.?I believe the flooding there got to around 9'.

I'm guessing winds out of the east. They're probably peaking now.

Looks like landfall will officially happen in the next 10 minutes. Looks like those chasers are experiencing 100 mph winds now, going to be another 15 or so for Read.

Tallahassee will be ok, it'll wobble wobble but pass on the western side. It's moving quick north.