dallen7908

https://www.njherald.com/story/lifestyle/around-town/2019/12/15/the-great-blizzard-1905/1738992007/ https://www.asasbriarcliff.com/the-ice-storm-of-1905

Will 2022-2023 be the first F ever? Snow in inches + Days > 4" of snow on the ground + Days with mean T < 32 Rk. Year. Points Inches D>4. D<32. Grade 1 2009-2010 149 77.0 26 46 A+ 2 1904-1905 133 42.0 30 61 A+ 3 2002-2003 131 58.1 14 59 A 4 1995-1996 129 62.5 18 49 A 5 1933-1934 125 49.6 25 51 A 6 1960-1961 125 46.5 29 50 A 7 1898-1899 110 51.1 15 44 A- 8 1977-1978 108 34.3 10 64 B+ 9 1917-1918 106 35.4 13 58 B+ 10 1903-1904 105 25.9 10 70 B+ 11 1963-1964 102 51.8 9 42 B+ 12 2013-2014 102 39.0 5 58 B+ 13 1966-1967 99 43.4 12 44 B+ 14 1978-1979 95 42.5 14 39 B 15 1957-1958 95 43.0 12 40 B 16 1981-1982 92 25.5 18 49 B 17 1965-1966 91 32.8 14 45 B 18 1961-1962 91 35.2 2 54 B 19 1935-1936 89 31.7 13 45 B 20 1921-1922 86 45.6 10 31 B- 21 1910-1911 86 35.2 12 39 B- 22 1959-1960 83 34.1 10 39 B- 23 1906-1907 83 31.1 9 43 B- 24 1909-1910 81 32.8 12 37 B- 25 1911-1912 78 22.9 9 47 B- 26 1924-1925 78 23.3 24 31 B- 27 2014-2015 77 28.7 1 48 B- 28 1934-1935 76 31.8 16 29 C+ 29 1962-1963 76 19.6 4 53 C+ 30 1947-1948 75 23.4 11 41 C+ 31 1939-1940 74 23.6 11 40 C+ 32 1919-1920 74 19.2 5 50 C+ 33 1986-1987 72 35.2 13 24 C+ 34 1894-1895 70 17.9 14 39 C+ 35 1899-1900 69 25.7 6 38 C+ 36 1967-1968 69 23.4 2 44 C+ 37 2003-2004 69 18.3 11 40 C+ 38 1982-1983 68 35.6 10 23 C+ 39 1976-1977 68 11.1 0 57 C+ 40 1955-1956 68 18.1 3 47 C+ 41 2010-2011 67 14.4 5 48 C+ 42 1916-1917 67 28.3 3 36 C+ 43 2015-2016 67 35.1 9 23 C+ 44 1969-1970 66 21.0 2 43 C+ 45 1942-1943 65 28.4 4 33 C 46 1901-1902 65 13.4 3 49 C 47 1999-2000 65 26.1 8 31 C 48 1929-1930 64 22.8 6 36 C 49 1983-1984 64 14.5 6 44 C 50 1925-1926 63 22.9 4 37 C 51 1944-1945 63 18.4 10 35 C 52 1913-1914 63 23.4 7 33 C 53 1993-1994 63 17.3 3 43 C 54 1945-1946 63 26.1 8 29 C 55 1985-1986 62 15.6 2 45 C 56 1964-1965 62 18.6 4 40 C 57 2004-2005 61 18.0 3 40 C 58 1908-1909 60 33.5 8 19 C 59 1923-1924 60 34.4 2 24 C 60 1905-1906 60 25.0 2 33 C 61 2000-2001 59 8.7 2 49 C 62 1968-1969 58 18.6 0 40 C 63 1992-1993 58 24.4 3 31 C 64 1987-1988 58 20.4 6 32 C 65 1915-1916 58 21.1 0 37 C 66 1940-1941 57 23.9 6 28 C 67 1932-1933 57 27.9 8 22 C 68 1902-1903 57 19.8 6 32 C 69 1979-1980 56 14.6 3 39 C 70 1989-1990 56 17.3 7 32 C 71 1946-1947 56 25.1 7 24 C 72 1970-1971 55 13.0 2 40 C 73 1938-1939 54 19.4 11 24 C- 74 1973-1974 54 17.1 5 32 C- 75 1900-1901 53 8.7 3 42 C- 76 1922-1923 53 21.2 1 31 C- 77 1941-1942 52 26.3 3 23 C- 78 2008-2009 51 9.1 1 41 C- 79 2017-2018 50 15.4 0 35 C- 80 2018-2019 50 18.3 2 30 C- 81 1907-1908 50 17.3 4 29 C- 82 1953-1954 50 22.1 5 23 C- 83 1958-1959 50 4.0 0 46 C- 84 1943-1944 49 20.3 2 27 C- 85 1896-1897 49 12.3 0 37 C- 86 1893-1894 49 21.0 4 24 C- 87 1927-1928 48 19.3 4 25 C- 88 1914-1915 48 16.3 1 31 C- 89 2006-2007 48 11.0 0 37 C- 90 1980-1981 47 4.6 0 43 C- 91 1996-1997 47 15.3 1 31 C- 92 1998-1999 47 15.2 3 29 C- 93 1954-1955 47 10.1 0 37 C- 94 2005-2006 46 19.6 3 24 C- 95 1895-1896 46 17.1 1 28 C- 96 1936-1937 46 26.0 4 16 C- 97 1928-1929 44 12.4 4 28 C- 98 1926-1927 42 12.0 1 29 D+ 99 1975-1976 41 11.5 1 29 D+ 100 1984-1985 41 10.3 0 31 D+ 101 1950-1951 41 6.2 0 35 D+ 102 1951-1952 41 14.1 2 25 D+ 103 2021-2022 40 14.4 2 24 D+ 104 1971-1972 40 14.0 0 26 D+ 105 1988-1989 37 8.3 0 29 D+ 106 1991-1992 37 4.1 0 33 D+ 107 1956-1957 36 15.4 1 20 D+ 108 2007-2008 34 8.5 0 26 D+ 109 1974-1975 34 12.2 0 22 D+ 110 1897-1898 33 10.5 0 23 D+ 111 1994-1995 33 8.2 2 23 D+ 112 1972-1973 33 1.2 0 32 D+ 113 1948-1949 32 19.9 2 11 D 114 1930-1931 31 13.6 0 18 D 115 2020-2021 30 10.9 0 20 D 116 1937-1938 30 8.0 0 22 D 117 1952-1953 28 11.8 0 17 D 118 1920-1921 28 9.8 2 17 D 119 1990-1991 28 9.4 0 19 D 120 2016-2017 27 3.0 0 24 D 121 2012-2013 27 8.0 0 19 D 122 1912-1913 25 7.3 1 17 D 123 2001-2002 19 2.3 0 17 D- 124 1918-1919 19 4.3 0 15 D- 125 1931-1932 17 4.9 0 13 D- 126 2019-2020 15 1.8 0 14 D- 127 1997-1998 15 3.2 0 12 D- 128 1949-1950 13 0.7 0 13 D- 129 2011-2012 11 1.8 0 10 D-

To get a better understanding of how the circulation might change in a climate check out this review paper. Good graphics. Models predict more El Niño-like weather but observations disagree. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2 On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories

Records were also broken or tied near where I grew up in Iowa. Many long-time Iowa residents will remember that legendary event when pipes froze, cars died, and roads cracked apart in the cold. On 02/03/1996 the Osborne Conservation Center southwest of Elkader, Iowa hit -47 degrees, tying the all-time state record that was set in 1912.

I've been following Quebec City's weather all winter, and it is forecast to be -31C there this weekend. Of course the first full day I'm there (next Wednesday) the forecast is 4C and rain ....

It's ironic (but only to me) that 1972-1973 was such an horrific winter here because the April 8-9 storm of that year is why I became a meteorologist. Fond memories of our dad roping my two siblings and I together as we searched for and fed our livestock. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/04/09/iowa-weather-forecast-blizzard-of-1973-april-snowstorm-snow-stranded-motorists-farmers-livestock/3415449002/ Hopefully that late February pattern will produce. Southeast ridges and northeast troughs can produce ... and if I squint I can see split flow as opposed to just a southwest trough.

Would you believe the Euro snow band extends from Norman, OK to Newark DE but is never more than 30 km in north-south extent below 2500 feet?

If we don't score during the next 10 days. CPC is still onboard for a rocking late February and hopefully early March. Best not to read their discussion of week 3 and early week 4. Yes a lot of qualifiers! Should the MJO's propagation continue into phases 8 and 1 along with the prior forcing from phases 5, 6, and 7, there is a possibility that troughing may try to establish over the eastern CONUS during the end of Week 4 in conjunction with the development of a negative NAO, which could lead to colder temperatures across the East and Southeast.

EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow

For illustration purposes only. Look at the split flow. Unfortunately, no interaction between the streams so we are left with surface lows associated with the southern and northern streams. ... and the cold air bottled up well to our north

This is how most of these threads start - with the best look of the season in the day 10-15 period! Fortunately, climatology is a weaker enemy than usual in early February. ... and it's great to finally see some cold temperatures in the northeast.

That's encouraging (I think). Hopefully, it doesn't get waylaid during its torturous journey through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 before reaching the promised land post-Valentine's day

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec. Here are the latest for Sugarloaf Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️ ~01/20/23 07:11 am

In at least one metric, the 00 UT EPS run wasn't that much worse than yesterday's encouraging 12 UT run. Metric: Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 4" of snow (10:1 rule) during the following 15 days. 00 UT Jan 15th run: 9.8% 12 UT Jan 15th run: 17.6% 00 UT Jan 16th run: 21.6% 12 UT Jan 16th run 17.6% 00UT Jan 17th run 21.6% 12 UT Jan 17th run 35.3% 00 UT Jan 18th run 33.3%

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=1rEfAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PdcEAAAAIBAJ&pg=1680,5002132&dq=march+snowstorm+1960&hl=en https://www.gloucestercitynews.net/clearysnotebook/2010/08/i_remember_when.html

We used to have a first 1" snow fall at BWI contest within the Department of Meteorology at UMCP. In 1997-1998 we finally gave up tracking in late February only to find out later that BWI cashed in sometime in March. No such luck at College Park. I think that was the last year of the contest - not sure if it was because of lack of snow or interest. Clearly this group would never has missed that March storm. I'm pretty sure we won't need to wait that long this year - but ... who knows. I did see my first flurries (more than one but never more than one at the same time) over the winter this past Saturday

Weenie rule No. ? Why do you believe resolution is crucial here?

Hope so, especially since the ensembles are run off of an older version of the GFS.

Another contributing factor to our decrease in snowfall is the success of measures put into place to reduce sulfate emissions by power plants. Fifteen years ago, a sizable amount of the warming associated with greenhouse gases was offset by cooling by aerosols - no longer the case. As a side the decrease in aerosols may also play a role in the disappearance of the weekend effect. While I was never fully on-board with the idea, the rule held that large east-coast snow storms were much more likely on weekends than weekdays. If true, a possible explanation is day-of-the-week variations in aerosol emissions. Aerosols act as cloud-condensation nuclei with the number of aerosols affecting the rate and consequently the altitude at which cloud droplets turn into rain drops or graupel. Today, day-of-the week variations still occur but their amplitude is much weaker. Finally, while warming will continue for the foreseeable future, a sizable portion of our poor snow prospects the last several years may be due to decadal oscillations in the Pacific. Years with 20-30" of snow in the DC area may not be extinct. Each of the last 7 winters I've tracked the weather in DC and also in a New England location that I visit later in the winter. This year I'm going to the Winter Carnival in Quebec City. Last year I was in the southern Adirondacks the day of the MLK storm. Hopefully going all of the way to the Laurentian mountains will prove to be unnecessary but we'll see. Like many here I'm still hoping for snow next weekend and later this winter. May those proclaiming the death of the weekend effect, Alberta clippers, as well as packed isotherms on the north side of storms be dead wrong.

No but please send one if you are jumping into a 3 foot drift - make that snow drift

24-hours later at 12 UT next Saturday, the difference in low locations between the two simulations is less stark as most of the lows have jumped to the coast (re-developed). Unfortunately, yesterday's cluster at 12 UT on Saturday was off of the Carolina coast while today's cluster is off of the Virginia coast. We could know more soon as ensembles skill improves dramatically between day 8 and day 5.

On what date should we expect to have received 50% of our annual snowfall. I've always gone with January 22 but am curious when the actual date is ... based on the date above like it seems likely it is even later than the 22nd.

Typically, when we are waiting for a pattern transition in the 10-14 day range, discussion of possible stratospheric help in the 2-4 week time frame is filling these pages (for better or worse, usually the latter). Is there a reason we're not hearing about the possibility of stratospheric help yet this winter? Too early in the season? Not in the cards? Link too weak?