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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Heaviest showers finally moving off from here. Winds are picking up somewhat so the front very much is nearby.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Power went off for about 30 seconds just a few minutes ago. Welcome to fall.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Rain has commenced in earnest, although I still hold the belief that the heaviest rains might only really fall over a period of about the next 6 or so hours here. 72/69
  4. crossbowftw3
    All things considered it has genuinely been dry for the most part since then, and we go right back to being dry for a good chunk of this next week. Why not give the grass a little drink?
  5. crossbowftw3
    Already seeing some showers here on and off, 70/68. Aside from the severe threat this looks like a standard sustained 15G25-30 type of fall event with 1-3” of rain as the standard which is to say….blah.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Newest day 1 outlook shifts everything north, as I expected it to. I had a feeling the slight risk being so far south was so overdone with every successive HRRR nudging further north.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Leveled off with a final storm total of around 5”, which pretty much makes Ida surpass Isaias as the most rain I’ve seen from a TC since Irene
  8. crossbowftw3
    I’m in the 4” bracket in Sullivan, rain intensity (which was never really high all day) is beginning to lighten up a tad, with the back edge quite possibly making it here within the next 6 hours.
  9. crossbowftw3
    And we have also largely avoided the severe threat by being on the more stable side of the storm, have been just a constant steady stream of moderate rain all day long.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Being nearby in adjacent SENY I can verify—4” and counting, likely seeing 6+ here.
  11. crossbowftw3
    It’s definitely a good thing that: A. It’ll largely be done by overnight B. the next four or so days look to be high and dry, and very comfortable at that
  12. crossbowftw3
    Have more than likely eclipsed 4” at this point if the Beach Lake obs can be extrapolated to my house in Narrowsburg given the close proximity, stay safe everyone in CNJ
  13. crossbowftw3
    Have been just so entrenched on the stable side of this thing all day, temperature has only fluctuated between 63 and 65 and is now back at 63.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Easily coming up on 3-4” here in Narrowsburg with at least another 1-2” if not more to come this evening and tonight. Not even been particularly heavy at any point, just this steady moderate rain
  15. crossbowftw3
    Must already be approaching 1.5” here at 5 to the hour, very concerned about later.
  16. crossbowftw3
    That’d be a nice head start....
  17. crossbowftw3
    Eyeballing around ~.25 so far, going to be one incredibly messy day all around for everyone.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Postseason analysis would be the judge of that, but the 7 MPH difference is purely academic.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Just over the border in NYS and probably will need to do the same at this rate.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Surrounding OBS all have 3-3.5” here. Guess I got lucky? Didn’t come down heavily for 90% of the event except for the first round at 4:30 yesterday afternoon.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Finally at nearly 4 PM the first sustained steady rain has made it to my end of Sullivan County.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Western Sullivan County still not seeing much. Cloud deck is even raising a tad—wonder if some sun can poke up before the steadier rains finally rotate in.
  23. crossbowftw3
    My youngest sibling will be having her move-in day at Hofstra Friday of this week, gotta hope the flooding isn’t awful
  24. crossbowftw3
    We’re gonna have to pay very close attention to our local feeds about what roads get washed out over the next 36 hours...fun times
  25. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile LF point may yet still miss BlD just to the east lol
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