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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    BGM at least believes Catskills/Poconos will be a big target tomorrow within their CWA so I would think most other places that can get into warm sector
  2. crossbowftw3
    This many SPC watches of any kind in so many consecutive days haven’t happened since the outbreak sequence of May 2019
  3. crossbowftw3
    Pretty unforgiving pattern overall. If we can somehow string a few good days together that’d be great
  4. crossbowftw3
    Absolutely nuts to watch what’s happening closer to the city while I’ve stayed dry basically all day. Our PRE here in the Catskills looks to commence momentarily, however.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile here in Sullivan still dry as a bone after that one instability-based downpour at 10:30 this morning. This rain that’s happening now does not paint a pretty picture for later on/tomorrow morning.
  6. crossbowftw3
    First instability showers from Elsa currently overhead, and it’s already a torrent.
  7. crossbowftw3
    At this point it looks like a toss up if we actually see much over 1.5” here inland. Coastal areas should still be good for 2-4” I would think
  8. crossbowftw3
    8 hours later note: the lightning flashes went on for another near-half hour after this, for a full hour and 10 minutes of lightning. That’s a personal record for my books for how many consecutive flashes and length of time of being able to observe lightning.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Currently in the middle of the absolutely nuttiest storm I’ve seen in years. I have now gone nearly 40 minutes of being able to observe constant flashes of lightning. Some kind of outflow/gust front contributed to chopping off something big from a tree; will have to investigate in the morning. edit: intensity is beginning to quickly back down, thankfully, but the flashes continue. Powerful stuff.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Discussion did note that this is partially due to the uncertainty of ET transition, but warranted all the same Overall it will be a pretty rough but manageable 12-18 hours for all of us
  11. crossbowftw3
    Discussion noted that watches were issued only for the reason of an unclear transition to Extratropical
  12. crossbowftw3
    The threat of a major in this day in age across the northeastern megalopolis is something I feel that is about just as likely as a major ice storm; both are simply inevitable and both will cause massive grid issues. Who knows how CONED/NYSEG/what have you will respond to that.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Three day QPF..
  14. crossbowftw3
    Pretty nonsensical to just say that
  15. crossbowftw3
    I bet Joe loves his job of getting to shout nonsense from the heavens.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Correct; I would assume the maximum gusts will be around 70 somewhere on the immediate coasts (and any bands that mix down?) but most everywhere else is <30-50
  17. crossbowftw3
    Hope everyone is prepared to get soaked again, whatever comes today and the 1-3” tomorrow and Friday will do a decent number on the rivers around here.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Enhancement from trough to the west. Won’t be nearly as noticeable as Isaias
  19. crossbowftw3
    No real reason to really think that this will touch what happened there (think the winter-like jet that was so prevalent with Isaias) but somewhere on the immediate coasts/just inland gets whacked. Max gusts probably around 70 for a time Friday morning. Everyone else inland sees at most 30-50, less the further in one goes.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Applying basic rules of cutting back max gusts, I would still suspect TS warnings need to become a possibility by this afternoon’s cycle. crazy to even think that we’re about to see back to back years with a landfalling TC somewhere in the megalopolis.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Easily can chop some of that off but somewhere on LI easily gets a gust between 50 and 70. Suspect TS warnings would be needed by this afternoon’s cycle if things stand. For us inland folks wind threat should be nominal at best.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Definitely noting the concern for flooding. Came back from an errand on Sunday (early day so limited crowds) and the Delaware (NY side/Narrowsburg) was already looking pretty angry. The hit and miss storms these next few days and whatever Elsa may bring will not help things.
  23. crossbowftw3
    Slight northern expansion of the enhanced risk into NNE today, the rest of us are still in slight risk for today.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Looks like a slight expansion of enhanced risk to the north into Maine on 1300z outlook. Rooting for you all to get some good storms today. Hoping for something as well even though I’m back in slight risk closer to NYC.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Should be a wild afternoon up in SNE, but we will still see something in our areas.
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