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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Should be interesting to see what SPC does here in about 20 minutes, and then by 1630.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Clouds should keep severe threat relatively in check north of NYC, southern Jersey looks good for a big day of storms.
  3. crossbowftw3
    First signs of possible initiation of the predecessor supercells may be underway across MN soon so we shall see how the models handle the MCS once it gets established, slight risk is good where it stands now. Instability may be limited for us close to and north of NYC proper but shear is notably strong.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Moderate risk across Wisconsin this afternoon into night for definite derecho potential. Look at how much instability is already building across MN.
  5. crossbowftw3
    So 7/19/19 levels of instability along with the derecho potential from last August, definitely rather eye-popping
  6. crossbowftw3
    About to get 7/10 split by a pair of severe warned storms
  7. crossbowftw3
    Looks like about 2.5” have fallen thus far per local Obs, still going to be sitting in the stratiform shield for some time further. approximately 10-15” has fallen so far this month, just about double what the two tropical events from last summer delivered for me—Fay at about 2.75” and Isaias at 4.5”.
  8. crossbowftw3
    The signal definitely exists for someone around these parts to get hit big with rain tomorrow but where exactly remains a mystery. Some severe risk also exists.
  9. crossbowftw3
    BGM at least believes Catskills/Poconos will be a big target tomorrow within their CWA so I would think most other places that can get into warm sector
  10. crossbowftw3
    This many SPC watches of any kind in so many consecutive days haven’t happened since the outbreak sequence of May 2019
  11. crossbowftw3
    Pretty unforgiving pattern overall. If we can somehow string a few good days together that’d be great
  12. crossbowftw3
    Absolutely nuts to watch what’s happening closer to the city while I’ve stayed dry basically all day. Our PRE here in the Catskills looks to commence momentarily, however.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile here in Sullivan still dry as a bone after that one instability-based downpour at 10:30 this morning. This rain that’s happening now does not paint a pretty picture for later on/tomorrow morning.
  14. crossbowftw3
    First instability showers from Elsa currently overhead, and it’s already a torrent.
  15. crossbowftw3
    At this point it looks like a toss up if we actually see much over 1.5” here inland. Coastal areas should still be good for 2-4” I would think
  16. crossbowftw3
    8 hours later note: the lightning flashes went on for another near-half hour after this, for a full hour and 10 minutes of lightning. That’s a personal record for my books for how many consecutive flashes and length of time of being able to observe lightning.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Currently in the middle of the absolutely nuttiest storm I’ve seen in years. I have now gone nearly 40 minutes of being able to observe constant flashes of lightning. Some kind of outflow/gust front contributed to chopping off something big from a tree; will have to investigate in the morning. edit: intensity is beginning to quickly back down, thankfully, but the flashes continue. Powerful stuff.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Discussion did note that this is partially due to the uncertainty of ET transition, but warranted all the same Overall it will be a pretty rough but manageable 12-18 hours for all of us
  19. crossbowftw3
    Discussion noted that watches were issued only for the reason of an unclear transition to Extratropical
  20. crossbowftw3
    The threat of a major in this day in age across the northeastern megalopolis is something I feel that is about just as likely as a major ice storm; both are simply inevitable and both will cause massive grid issues. Who knows how CONED/NYSEG/what have you will respond to that.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Three day QPF..
  22. crossbowftw3
    Pretty nonsensical to just say that
  23. crossbowftw3
    I bet Joe loves his job of getting to shout nonsense from the heavens.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Correct; I would assume the maximum gusts will be around 70 somewhere on the immediate coasts (and any bands that mix down?) but most everywhere else is <30-50
  25. crossbowftw3
    Hope everyone is prepared to get soaked again, whatever comes today and the 1-3” tomorrow and Friday will do a decent number on the rivers around here.
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