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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    No Kevin doing mud angels then. Bummer
  2. crossbowftw3
    Still think somewhere in the vicinity of Montauk is likeliest, I love the move NHC made this morning to have a blanket hurricane watch from LI to the Cape.
  3. crossbowftw3
    TS force easily
  4. crossbowftw3
    Notable enough that it’d break the 30-year-long wait between true hurricane LF in the northeast...but honestly the most significant impacts wind wise being confined to a much more confined space.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Good to hear from you again first of all. Second, Sandy comparisons cannot necessarily be entertained, but a minimal hurricane anywhere close to NYC is highly noteworthy all the same
  6. crossbowftw3
    Here’s why the 3k cannot be used for TCs: https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1217839589836099586?s=21
  7. crossbowftw3
    Very much so. Not even on the same plausible scale of what will be reality with this storm
  8. crossbowftw3
    You can’t ever really use the NAM 3k for TC genesis and intensification.
  9. crossbowftw3
    I definitely have to be inclined to start believing the flood potential here inland if the center trends any closer to that W-C LI goalpost
  10. crossbowftw3
    Inland probably sees very little wind issues, perhaps gusts to 40 in the typical elevated spots. Rain, and potentially lots of it, is the major issue for us inlanders.
  11. crossbowftw3
    W-C LI is probably the furthest west this can get. Don’t see a direct NYC LF but even a landfall near ISP gets NYC proper into TS conditions but likely not much further west than that
  12. crossbowftw3
    Kevin doing mud angels in his backyard while transformers blow all around? Sounds festive
  13. crossbowftw3
    And that’s the most concerning part of all of this right now, don’t think many people are taking well to waking up with hurricane watches
  14. crossbowftw3
    Central/Western LI is the limit for how far this gets pulled in, still believe Montauk to the Cape is the main target zone, goalposts to be narrowed further today
  15. crossbowftw3
    If Jim rolls up in Islip watch out, lol
  16. crossbowftw3
    Not even 100 but hurricane force certainly possible in coastal areas.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Not even close to either...it’ll be bad over a much more localized area than Sandy. For >80% of the northeast it’ll be NBD.
  18. crossbowftw3
    This is why NAM should never be used to track a TC. From 880 monsters in the gulf to 922 off the Delmarva, what other shenanigans will it cook up next
  19. crossbowftw3
    Looks to be a final storm total of around 2” if the LSR from about 10ish minutes west of me is to be correct. MA/CT getting dumped on this morning and if Henri stalls there big problems will ensue. Seeing reports of 3-5”+ there.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Think smaller scale Allison (2001) or Harvey in that case
  21. crossbowftw3
    At this stage of the ballgame I would be inclined to lean closer to a New England track with some impacts for LI. How many more ticks west to get NYC into the game is the question. For those of us N&W of the city proper and further inland this is likely not our game.
  22. crossbowftw3
    It could swing back closer to deliver something to NYC but at this point a New England strike is beginning to look more likely than it did 12-24 hours ago
  23. crossbowftw3
    That’s my idea as well for the moment. Ultimate reality probably doesn’t stray from that, but maybe 25-50 or so miles of error.
  24. crossbowftw3
    We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Major flooding potential for anywhere this just sits and spins new convection in conjunction with surge flooding.
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