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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Tornado Watch reissued until 2pm.
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https://caps.ou.edu/reu/reu21/finalpapers/Sloan_FinalPaper.pdf
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Doesn't LWX have some additional responsibility for the Chesapeake Bay? I might be wrong.
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If that track verifies - the conditional TOR threat would certainly be present.
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Lord GooFus
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Disgusting out there with a 78 dewpoint....heat index over 100 here already.
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It's far enough west that it bring a tornado threat into play.
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If only we were in S PA. CSU MLP and SPC seem decently enthusiastic about their odds for severe t'storms today.
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Lately it seems like the first REALLY refreshing air masses don't show up until well into October lol
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Latest HRRR sucks horribly.
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NAM nest rolling in now is weaker and HRRR seems less enthusiastic as well.
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The usually stingy HRRR is actually semi-decent - maybe not for severe but storms across a decent chunk of the area. Of course there will be deadzones and jackpots. CAMs vary in coverage and intensity.
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Little signal at Day 8 for CSU-MLP
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1999! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd
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It will be interesting to see what the tropics do once they wake up in mid-August and beyond. Of course it's always low odds, but if it's as busy as the experts expect - would think something either gives us remnants from a Gulf strike or maybe this is the year an Isabel or similar returns.
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I feel like it's going to take a tropical system or strong remnants to get us out of this "funk" - other than the big tornado day this has been an exceedingly calm season IMO. I'm a big proponent of the "rubber band effect" though. Whenever we break the boredom it will be significant in nature.
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There's a westward moving outflow boundary that might trigger more activity as it heads west.
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Low of 70.5 and that's where I'm sitting right now. Dew in the mid 60s feels worlds better than 75+
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Classic lol
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Me too. I mean mid-level lapse rates of course sucked - but my dewpoint hasn't dropped below 70 all day. Just one of those days, I guess. I don't even think I got rain that could classify as "heavy" Seems we'll have a boring stretch now.
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Guarantee you it's going to blow up east of the metros for like Southern Maryland etc.
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Looks pretty tame and lame.
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Interesting warning from LWX for MoCo and vicinity. The warning itself tilts slightly south of east (SLIGHTLY) but the warning storm motion is north of east..which leads the storm motion markers to leave the warning box to the north.
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The MoCo section might be gusting out...hoping for reenergizing of the line.
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