Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0144.html
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That is a very impressive sim radar. NAM doesn't look anything like it.
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The parameters in some regards look better than the other day even. Simulated reflectivity on the longgggg range HRRR from the 12z run looks really nice.
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Someone is a little cranky today eh? psu is one of the most respected posters in our subforum and even the entire forum at-large. Nobody scores a 100% in the world of weather. You seem awfully inflammatory...
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Payback for a TOR "outbreak" a few weeks ago lol. I'm getting bored without anything substantial to track.
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@yoda - don't know if I'd refer to that as "gungho" seems more like they are just saying IF there was an area that had a higher risk - it would be there. The background risk is pretty low still. They just do a great job it seems of fleshing out the discussion and describing the potential.
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19z HRRR at 04z this evening. Looks acceptable.
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Different timing too - though some might argue the timing was even worse for that one. Wasn't it during the morning rush? I remember I was stuck in it driving to work around 7:45 that morning. I guess timing doesn't really mean crap in these low CAPE cold season events.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0131.html Just posted to Twitter - but it's not up on SPC quite yet.
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That's about the max potential on this one. Absolute max. My current thinking (not very bold) is for zero TOR reports in the LWX CWA this evening and fewer than 5 reports of wind damage. I'm sure LWX will throw up a few warnings. I'll go max measured gust of 53mph.
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The latest HRRR looks a bit better. Nothing significant but just a more solid line and a bit more on the gusty wind side of things. The weenie in me also sees a tiny bit of that light green shade on the UH maps.
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16z HRRR had a bit more of a consolidated line.
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Then again - it's the HRRR and could be totally wrong - but with agreement maybe not.
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HRRR continues to send the most continuous part of the line mostly to the north of Central Maryland. It's more broken in DC proper and very scattered south.
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Awesome visible satellite this morning https://i.imgur.com/yJLUNWt.mp4
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Wish we could muster dynamics like today with sunny skies in May.
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LWX did note yesterday that it might come in a bit faster than expected with how dynamic it is. I can barely make it past 9:30pm myself these days.
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The high risk better be squarely centered around my place of residence.
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I don't believe there has been a high risk anywhere in the northeast since 1998.
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@Eskimo Joe, @yoda, @high risk - @George BM is calling for SPC to issue a HIGH RISK for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast
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Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw.
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The low pressure on the Euro doesn't pass as close to us as the event a few weeks ago. But the H5 chart is ripe looking.
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It looks really nice. I wish CIPS Analogs ran on the Euro...would be interested to see what that spit out. 132 hours away isn't even that far...
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I'm about to look...if I am not blown away I will be disappointed.
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Severe Wx is a much higher probability event type to track around here vs tropical.
