Kmlwx
-
Posts
12,584 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Kmlwx
-
Remember this day so vividly. Hard to believe it's been this long...
-
Quite the storm here in Potomac. Close lighting strike scared our receptionist while I was standing with her at the windows in the waiting area.
-
HP supercells get me going. TMI
-
Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc.
-
Did I miss a memo/change - since when did SPC start issuing 2 Day 3 outlooks each day?
-
The rain pattern? Or the lack of severe pattern?
-
Yeah I'm snoozing so far this summer on severe. Granted, I've been busy with work and I moved... But I have not been impressed IMBYs
-
Per the obs thread - slight risk already in place for Friday from roughly DC and then to the north and east. Day 3 risks are fraught with potential to bust
-
WTOP weather forecast mentioned storms with damaging winds and flooding rains for tomorrow - SPC is not impressed lol.
-
May just be selective memory - but I feel like mod risks bust for us less often than ENH. I think they are way more willing to throw out an ENH vs a moderate for us - they are (with a few exceptions) only willing to put out a mod for us when something like a derecho or high end tor risk day seems in the bag.
-
Honestly I feel like I've seen it go both ways. We've had plenty of days of being in a low end slight or "See Text" before marginal was a thing that turned out to be pretty impressive days (nothing derecho - but just higher end stuff in general). On the flip side - we've definitely seen days of high end slights or even moderates go completely up in smoke. Usually it's cloudcover or capping or whatever. Always something to blow the forecast.
-
Models don't look terrible. Could be some interesting storms to watch this PM.
-
NAM is back to being decent around 21z Saturday for parts of the area. Mid level lapse rates look pretty sucky...but too bad we don't get SE winds like that with many of our events.
-
That's what NAM sim radar looks like at 84 hours.
-
We've seen it on model soundings a few times I'm sure.
-
That NAM run would seem to indicate the battleground between good action and boring will be the Potomac River. It's the NAM at range, though.
-
Pretty meh and quiet overall.
-
EJ has been much more bullish on events this year so far.
-
Well there's your problem then... I'm not familiar with the CE up there but I cannot believe he would say something like that. When you're at a funnel point like that it's going to flood catastrophically when you get that much rain in a short amount of time.
-
Yeah the amount of people on social media saying "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE TO PREVENT THIS" is kind of surprising to me. Do people not know how powerful water is? The topography and layout of Ellicott City is conducive to tragic flooding like this. If you for example create barriers somewhere (assuming they hold and are effective) - you probably cause a flood someplace else next time. Was just in a tweet thread with a person who keeps insisting that "we shouldn't have to just accept it and deal with it - something needs to be done this time" - The user kept talking about "better drainage" - yeah...not going to work with topography like that and 10 inches of rain.
- 1,302 replies
-
- 2
-
-
- severe
- thunderstorms
- (and 3 more)
-
Have barely seen any rain here IMBY. Pretty incredible what has been unfolding to the north in Ellicott City.
-
-
LOL the latest HRRR has a tiny spec of 85kts on the wind gust product. Doubtful.
-
Yeah...I'd love to see some more easterly component to the entire complex.
-
You can kind of see a DC split opening up
- 1,302 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- severe
- thunderstorms
- (and 3 more)
