Kmlwx

You're entire "persona" on here has gotten about as old as it can possibly get. Global models are not going to have a good handle on individual storms until there is some sort of actual center of circulation - and even then they can struggle. Nobody on this forum needs you posting the same crap on an hourly basis. It's global models - they might show a storm today and won't tomorrow. In the end - there might be a monster or a piece of crap exposed center. If you're truly a "weather enthusiast" you should really try to absorb some of the excellent posts on here from meteorologists and non-trolls. Posting a little less and taking in some of the knowledge is great advice.

Complete turd.

15z HRRR rolling in now is pretty robust for the metro area.

That little cluster seems to have overperformed. There are already 3 LSRs showing up in the wake of it.

I would think if they hang around too long they might reduce the risk over in NoVA. But Central Maryland and other areas still seem like a decent risk area (as evidenced by SPC area).

23-1z seems fine to me. It's not overnight - and it's still summer so there should still be enough instability around that time. Plus, these things do tend to come in just a touch ahead of schedule. Also that cluster in NoVA right now could lay down some additional boundaries to enhance later convection.

NAM nest and HRRR actually look pretty decent - especially the NAM nest - even some UD helicity tracks lol

After seeing outlooks like 6/29/12 I tend not to rule *anything* out completely until we are right up on the event. We've seen several/many times when we are barely in a 5% and end up in a higher end SLGT or even moderate. Not saying the setup is at all similar to that - just comparing how things can shift/evolve with severe.

NICE inverted V signature on that sounding. Also...anybody see the day 3 hatching well to our north? Wow.

It's been a while since we've seen a D2 ENH. Nice!

NAM parameters (yes I know it's the NAM at long range) would argue that Wednesday is the better severe potential day perhaps.

@weatherwiz - over on his IG was mentioning some EML potential in that time frame I believe. Something to track locally sure beats the doldrums that can set in pretty quickly. Isaias feels like ancient history already.

Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here.

Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems.

No - it will likely curve southeast and south with time.

Hell of a derecho going through the Midwest right now. One measured gust was to 106mph!

Just looked at the CFS and Cansips on the TT site for giggles. Both seem to show positive height anomalies over us for all of winter. Next.

That cell near Bath has some spin in it.

How can you not...it's just so perfect. Honestly - it hasn't been terrible with at least outlining where storms may be in the anecdotal times I've watched it. NAM nest is a snoozer for most of us today.

I'd feel pretty good about being in Northern Virginia this afternoon if you like storms. Especially from like Sterling to La Plata and SW of there. DC proper and MBY is more of a question mark.

The Herderps still really likes DC proper with a blob.

I re-positioned to my parent's house over closer to Silver Spring for today. I think I might still be just a hair too far east based on what the HRRR is showing.

The ARW and ARW2 both have that same supercellular looking thing for NoVA and the La Plata area. HRDRPS is pretty nice for DC and a swath of the area tomorrow.