Kmlwx

So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here - Even @yoda was gone! What do you think for Sunday?

Sneaky sneaky - Slight risk posted for areas from DC and to the west for tomorrow.

The latest NAM sort of peaks our instability too early in the day on Sunday. It has a swath of good CAPE over the area around 12z before it shifts north and east of the area. We still have instability of course, but it demonstrates that the best alignment of parameters is likely (at least for now) to be to the north and east. This is what SPC is showing in the area outlined in the marginal risk. HM on Twitter (posted above) indicated VA northward - but I'd be a lot more cautious about including the DC area in that right now. I think it could yield some interesting storms - but any "significant severe" risk is likely to not be in our backyards. Mappy is well positioned I suppose. Of course, caveats apply like it being the NAM at range - and it's just now coming into view of the NAM nest. However, GFS has shown similar solutions. Was hoping for a sneaky event to slide in while we all watch Isaias.

The trend has definitely been to continue favoring north of us for Sunday's potential severe event. Marginal risk from SPC - but honestly...you can even see in their map and discussion how the threat is north of us. Not sure we'll get a win on this one.

Don't worry everyone - we'll find a way to get nothing from the Sunday severe and then whiff on Isaias.

CIPS is lit up for Sunday.

I think we might end up being just a BIT too far south for the meat and potatoes. But we'll continue to monitor. Maybe it shifts around.

SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now.

Important to remember that surface wind doesn't necessarily indicate what's going on higher up...and vice versa I suppose

6z NAM nest actually looks okay for the DC area later today. I'm sure we'll see some storms pop - we'll see who gets lucky.

No. There is no tornado warning.

CIPS extended range is really honking in the 168hr time frame for a severe event from the Mid-Atlantic to the SE/Gulf Coast areas.

Starting to rain here in Arundel Mills. Watching some lady who is casually sitting on her balcony reading the paper. She's not making any movement to go inside.

DCA is probably getting ROCKED right now.

That wind core is going to go right over DCA...

@yoda - They used to use the 65mph level a ton in the 90s and 2000s. Seems they like to use the 10mph intervals now. Still not seeing any northern extension. Going to be close for me. I fully expect these clouds will stick around long enough to sour my chance to see the comet tonight.

I may get grazed here in the Hanover/Arundel Mills area unless there is some more development on the northern end.

Interestingly - mesoanalysis actually has a relative minimum of DCAPE locally. Better numbers to the north and south. Not so great right around the DC metro.

Definitely not saying it hasn't happened - but I thin those numbers are much more common with warnings (before the criteria was changed to 1 inch hail). In the old days I remember seeing 65mph a lot too with warnings and watches. But 70 for wind and 1-1.5 for hail is about even with the average severe watch around our parts.

Those are pretty standard numbers for out severe tstm watches IMO.

Wow. Early meso with high probs. Nice.

12z NAM nest is a whiff for the DC area

Smaller one looks like it happened around the same time in Charles County along the Potomac.

Models seem to be in agreement on timing earlier than some of the recent storms too - maybe 3-6pm crossing the area.