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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The NCAR AI link above seems to be pretty robust for Sunday...FWIW. CSU MLP is less impressive - but the yellow area increased from the really meh runs a day or two ago.
  2. Kmlwx
    The WxWatcher007 blanket might have worked! I added it to my bed last night. More data needed before we can be sure lol
  3. Kmlwx
    Here - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ
  4. Kmlwx
    All downhill from here for all of us I'm prepared to accept my fate as forum severe-jinx if this blanket leads to the most dud Mid-Atlantic season ever.
  5. Kmlwx
    I'm going to burrito myself inside of it whenever we have a short range severe weather threat. Maybe it will protect against being socked in by clouds/busts.
  6. Kmlwx
    Re: the Sunday severe risk - timing is still shifting around quite a bit...but I could see it being similar to the other day...
  7. Kmlwx
    @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it.
  8. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP looks a lot less favorable for severe than it did over the weekend. Timing seems off potentially. Still way too far out to say anything with confidence.
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah...way too far out to say anything definitive - but interesting to see a robust signal already on guidance.
  10. Kmlwx
    Unrelated but useful for severe season - does anyone know when the RRFS will be back online after the winter outage?
  11. Kmlwx
    Line of storms over/near you.
  12. Kmlwx
    Mostly expecting that to be the case- though the HRRR sometimes underdoes convection. Wouldn't shock me to see an isolated rumble of thunder mainly west of US-15
  13. Kmlwx
    Already lightning with the cells near Mill Creek. WV.
  14. Kmlwx
    Let's see if this precip can clear out quickly enough to get a 2nd round into the closer-in areas later. For now - way west is still favored.
  15. Kmlwx
    Anne Arundel and PG added to the watch.
  16. Kmlwx
    TIAD radar is seeing some 60-65mph wind just under 2kft. Not sure if much or any of that is mixing down though.
  17. Kmlwx
    These days you could probably say "rain and a little fog" and schools would dismiss.
  18. Kmlwx
    Wow
  19. Kmlwx
    Can't even do gusty showers right, I guess
  20. Kmlwx
    Obs show that our temps and dews are not wildly different from the areas under the MCD. Not saying we have the totally same environment - but it's not like a 10-15 degree difference or anything.
  21. Kmlwx
    57.6 with a 52.2 dewpoint here in Colesville, MD. Doesn't *feel* like severe but still expecting some sort of dynamically forced gusty line...but entirely possible we top out in the 35mph gust range.
  22. Kmlwx
    In all seriousness - I still continue to expect nothing more up here than gusty showers. It's worth noting, however, that some of the NSSL models (experimental?) bring better parameters into parts of the closer-in metro areas tomorrow in the 17z-20z timeframe. While I concur with SPC (of course) that the best threat is well south of us like SEVA and into NC...I've continually been saying that dynamic systems can surprise. The 1730z Day 2 Outlook from SPC even mentions "strong tornado" potential in the enhanced area! While nothing like that will be realized this far north - my eyes will be on subsequent 3km NAM runs and the HRRR even once it's more in range. For now, the NAM and NAM nest are a lot less enthused than some of the B-team models like the ARW and NSSL models. I haven't tracked the verification scores on those NSSL models either...so it could be that they all more or less follow the leader. Even the robust models quickly wind down the threat NE of the Potomac - but counties adjacent continue to be worth monitoring. The image I posted above if it were 70s-80s degrees and moist would scream "line of supercells" to me...but think things might be overdone on that.
  23. Kmlwx
    Even if sub-severe this looks like good tracking practice for spring!
  24. Kmlwx
    Actually...the ARW, ARW2, and HRDPS all have a similar line with similar northern extent. BRING ME MY GUSTY SHOWERS!
  25. Kmlwx
    At least we've "got" the 0z FV3 lol
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