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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if that doesn’t block off and rolls over our heads instead, it could be 60F. But I think it’s becoming more likely the block happens given the ensemble support which was more tepid on previous runs. But like you, not ready to 100% buy in yet.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Tries for the Kraft in eastern MA. It’s a little stretched out but that was close to something a lot nicer.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Some people were complaining about the smaller events getting less frequent. They should be happy about the nickel and dimes. I dunno, if we keep seeing the trend of the vort/H5 flow “curling” as it goes under us, then that increases the upside for sure. I wouldn’t predict a foot now, but it’s def a possibility for someone over the interior with elevation.
  4. ORH_wxman
    3pm Monday: “I got a foot…wasn’t expecting that”
  5. ORH_wxman
    You may be in a great spot on that pattern depicted. Your extra longitude east will help.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS does get a close h5 low over Hazey in Nova Scotia on the mean…there must be some decent members further west because it has 1-2” of snow for eastern New England during that D8 period.
  7. ORH_wxman
    The ORH to Ray corridor may be AN for snow by Monday morning. Esp closer to you…ORH would need about 8-9” from the storm to be AN by that date which is doable but far from a lock.
  8. ORH_wxman
    EPS is pretty damned amped for a 180h mean…look at the angle of that delivery between us and Baffin Island Big storm is unlikely but the omega block pattern is rapidly gaining more support.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Darn I was expecting the GEFS to have a mean of 20” for that storm.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Wonder if Ray is gonna get payback this winter while a bunch of others get taken to the Scooter Woodshed Torture Games. That euro solution is almost a nuke for NE Ma and SE NH.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Lol euro almost pulls it off. It does give accumulating snow from it. Just no 30 and 40 burgers like the insane GFS.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I’m concerned about midlevels there but you are prob just far enough north to do ok. Just don’t want to waste a bunch of QPF on a crap sleet/snow mixture.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Ideally that s/w allows the curl at H5 to happen but then tries to kick it east so that we get the big Kraft ending.
  14. ORH_wxman
    There? If everything went right, you might get like 8-10”…….I suppose you could argue for a foot if you’re in one of those 300 foot elevations near Foxborough…but that’s like a 90th percentile outcome. Right now, I’d set expectations as a couple inches of mashed potatoes and hope things trend better.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro looked like it was unsure on how to link the WCB/CCB…hoping to get more clarity going forward…I mean, WTF is this for the 6-hourly QPF map? Looks like convective cells training
  16. ORH_wxman
    Seeing that kink in H5 around 60h is a good thing. I think if we can see that feature continue to show up on future runs, it raises the ceiling on the event.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Looks a little north of the euro. Regardless, I’m glad to see more model runs giving better QPF rates. GFS is still pretty flaccid but it will eventually cave. Bigger question is whether the northern models are too amped or not.
  18. ORH_wxman
    No not for all of us. A significant percentage of this forum will get a real event.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Euro tries to curl that vort in pretty close and it causes CCB to go wild from like western CT up through deep interior MA and into NH.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Big for CNE too
  21. ORH_wxman
    This is gonna be a good run for at least some of SNE.
  22. ORH_wxman
    77 at IAD.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Cautiously optimistic for our area. We have a little bit of elevation and being out near 495 helps. I’d like to see some more solutions that give some higher rates like the NAM…and it doesn’t have to be 12-15” like the NAM, but at least a couple 3 hour panels that drop 0.25”+ of QPF. I feel pretty good telling people in this area that we’re probably getting at least 2-3” but whether it’s likely we get 6”+ is still not answered yet.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I’d give it another 12-24 hours. We’re like in the 54-60 hour range right now which is kind of fringe for meso guidance.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Not too often you get a pattern in early February that could produce a big snowstorm or 60F depending on only minor differences in the handling of the central CONUS block/ridge.
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