ORH_wxman

That month had two big ice storms in the interior....a snow to ice scenario. Prob sucked for the coast. I think ORH was near normal snow in Feb '71 but had a ton of ice. I think it was the 2/7 or 2/8/71 that had the big one. Not quite on the level of Dec '08 or Dec '64 in ORH but pretty big ice storm. A lot of sleet saved it from being in the class with those others.

The New Years Day '71 system actually got squashed too far south for us....it was NYC's only good storm that winter. I think parts of CT got warning snows, but up in our area it was like 3-5".

I just pulled this up....you can see the two cores of cold...one in the typical area of the upper plains, but then a secondary cold max over New England....it was due to the NAO that winter. Prob lots of would-be cutters getting rejected and getting squashed south of New England as redevelopers, so west of the Apps gets warm-sectored on some of those while it never happens over this way...and that winter was super active for storms, so this happened a lot.

'70-'71 was absolutely frigid in New England despite the volatility out west. I don't have the exact figures in front of me but ORH went something like this for departures for DJFM.....-7, -6, -1, -5. I think the main reason for that was that winter had a predominately negative NAO with a poleward Aleutian ridge edged toward the WPO side....it's a very cold pattern for Canada, and then throw in a -NAO, it's a very exceptional pattern for New England. It quickly transitioned into above average temps int he southeast US.

They are pretty closely correlated so it doesn’t matter that much which one you follow for climate purposes. For “in-season predictions” though, NSIDC area is a much better predictor of both final minimum extent and area when you are a few months out (June/July). That is why I use NSIDC area to make my minimum predictions at the end of June every year. I should mention that NSIDC area is different from other area metrics because NSIDC uses the SSMI/S satellite which gets fooled by melt ponding. So SSMI/S-derived area in June (when melt ponding tends to peak) is really a good proxy for melt ponds which is the true skilled in-season predictor of final minimum extent and area.

That's quite a punch the PV is taking at the end of the 12z EPS....didn't show that on the 00z run. We'll have to see if that is a trend that sticks. Would probably mean colder wx down the line in November vs previous forecasts.

Area is more accurate if you want to know the precise value of surface that is covered with ice. Extent is better for things like shipping...if a region is covered with 40% ice concentration, you probably don't want to try going through it without an ice breaker. That region would be considered "covered in ice extent" even though there is open water mixed in. Area would give us a lower value because it's only 40% ice.

Posted in the other thread that late November looked colder on the weeklies with western ridging....but it's week 6. Almost no skill. It does look like we warm up after the colder wx in the first few days of November.

Moderate Nina....looks like we will continue to see the colder subsurface rise to the surface in central and eastern areas with the easterly wind bursts continuing.

Yeah Nobscot Hill is over 600 feet. Most people prob dont think anywhere in Framingham gets that high, lol.

Is that taken from nobscot hill?

For sure. One of the reasons we go to western ME so much is it’s off the beaten path somewhat. We love that vibe more than the touristy feel. I do love North Conway’s views and they have a nice restaurant scene for when we want to do that kind of thing, but we don’t want a full week of it when vacationing. So we stay 30 minutes east. And yeah, Berlin could use your dollars any time, not just during covid, LOL.

Unfortunately without the good bourbon.

LOL...I remember seeing that movie in theaters as a teenager. Anyways, I’d go into Maine before VT if I was where phin is. That western part of Maine has a very northern NH vibe as it is.

Seems like there’s no enforcement. But they could always go the RI route and start pulling cars over....but they got a ton of backlash for that and eventually stopped, so it seems unlikely other areas will start doing it. But there’s a critical difference between winter and summer. Bigger chance of spreading in the winter when people are forced indoors more. Now you wouldn’t expect it at ski resorts too much as long as they are limiting lodge capacity, but we don’t know how other places will be affected. You get a couple stories of out-of-State skiers spreading the virus in a restaurant or something, all of the sudden you could see strict enforcement measures.

LOL I love the sun angle and warm ground myths.

Oct 2007 was an absolute furnace though....so big difference in the CONUS pattern where 2020 will likely finish below normal for a chunk of the plains and midwest/lakes. Prob will still finish above normal here in the northeast as we're going to be east of the best cold over the next 10 days. But that doesn't mean winter can't be similar. There are definite similarities elsewhere and in the tropical PAC.

I think it makes sense....easterlies migrating eastward is going to keep the Nino1+2 and Nino 3 regions colder than otherwise.

The warm anomalies on that map are actually where we want to see them start ramping up in November....eastern Siberia. Hopefully they keep doing so.

Most of it IMHO is attributable to the AO....the AO region has been much more positive the past half-decade vs the 15 years before that (and especially the 2007-2013 timeframe). Now what is driving the AO? Whoever figures that one out wins the big prize....LOL.

There will be a bunch of local businesses crippled because of this. It's very sad. That's just going to be an economic reality of the covid protocols....a bit OT for this thread though. I do not think there needs to be a major limit on skiing though....this just doesn't spread well outside based on a huge sample size now, so I do not see the point. Nevermind when most people are actually wearing masks anyway in cold weather. I can understand limiting lodge capacity. Maybe they are scared of too many people trying to use bathrooms or something in the lodge, but I think if you communicate clearly in advance that lodge spacing will be limited, you don't need to start withholding day passes.

Everyone seems to be pretty pessimistic or at least quite cautious. That means it will probably be a blockbuster, lol. Not surprising though, recency bias is a huge factor in expectations. When we were churning out big snowstorms like sneakers at a Nike sweatshop, everyone always expected the next winter to be huge. Everyone also expected that we'd keep seeing the big -AO/NAO patterns we saw 2007-2013 too. Even blaming climate change on it (recall the "low sea ice = -AO" studies that were coming out?)...now that we have been dealing with a relentless +AO recently, the narrative and expectations have flipped.

Snow weenies in Nagano just threw their computers out the window.

Me too....but not if someone is offering '11-'12 as the alternative.

Ugh....I'll take last year over '11-'12 any day. At least I had snow pack for 27 days in December last year. Jan/Feb was worse than 2012, but I can't ignore the monstrous December difference. I guess if you largely missed the early Dec storm, then I could see how '11-'12 would be preferred.